發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-12 13:01

  本文選題：京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展　切入點(diǎn)：工業(yè)　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著能源需求的不斷增加,環(huán)境問題日漸突出,逐漸成為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的制約因素。京津冀地區(qū)作為我國重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)圈其環(huán)境問題日益凸顯,北京作為京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展的核心,近年來飽受人口增長、交通擁堵、空氣污染等“城市病”的困擾,在協(xié)同發(fā)展的背景下,其能源消費(fèi)碳排放問題備受關(guān)注,而工業(yè)作為主要的能源消費(fèi)部門,由于工業(yè)總量的增加而造成的碳排放量增加在總的碳排量增加成因中占比最高。因此,以北京工業(yè)作為研究對象,測算、分析并仿真預(yù)測其碳排放量,對促進(jìn)北京市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展乃至區(qū)域協(xié)同發(fā)展都具有重要的理論和實(shí)際價(jià)值。本文首先對碳排放核算方法與模型進(jìn)行梳理,并概述系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的基本理論,確定了本文相應(yīng)的研究內(nèi)容與方法;其次,基于北京市工業(yè)行業(yè)2001-2014年的能源消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù),利用碳排放系數(shù)法測算并分析工業(yè)碳排放量及其占比情況;在此基礎(chǔ)上,基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)理論建立了北京市工業(yè)碳排放系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,利用該模型從工業(yè)碳排放總量、工業(yè)增加值、總?cè)丝凇⒛茉聪M(fèi)需求及碳排放強(qiáng)度等角度對北京市2010-2025年的工業(yè)碳排放情況進(jìn)行仿真預(yù)測,并從正確性、有效性及靈敏度三個(gè)方面對模型進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn);然后,運(yùn)用情景分析法分別設(shè)定基準(zhǔn)型方案、經(jīng)濟(jì)高效型方案、能源節(jié)約型方案和經(jīng)濟(jì)-節(jié)約協(xié)調(diào)型方案四種情景模式,仿真模擬在四種情景模式下北京市2010-2025年工業(yè)碳排放運(yùn)行趨勢,依據(jù)情景仿真結(jié)果,分別從人口子系統(tǒng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)子系統(tǒng)以及能源與環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)三個(gè)方面對四種模式下的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)態(tài)模擬結(jié)果進(jìn)行對比分析;最后,基于仿真結(jié)果篩選出適合北京市工業(yè)發(fā)展的情景模式,并提出發(fā)展建議,為北京市的節(jié)能減排工作以及工業(yè)發(fā)展提供政策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the continuous increase of energy demand, environmental problems become increasingly prominent, and gradually become the constraints of economic development. As an important economic circle of our country, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei have increasingly prominent environmental problems, and Beijing is the core of the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. In recent years, it has been plagued by population growth, traffic congestion, air pollution and other "urban diseases". In the context of coordinated development, the issue of carbon emissions from its energy consumption has attracted much attention, and industry is the main energy consumption sector. The increase in carbon emissions caused by the increase in the total industrial volume accounts for the highest proportion of the causes of the increase in total carbon emissions. Therefore, take Beijing industry as the research object, calculate, analyze and simulate its carbon emissions. It has important theoretical and practical value to promote Beijing's economic development and even regional coordinated development. Firstly, this paper combs the methods and models of carbon emission accounting, and summarizes the basic theory of system dynamics. The corresponding research contents and methods are determined. Secondly, based on the energy consumption data of Beijing industrial industry from 2001 to 2014, the carbon emission coefficient method is used to calculate and analyze the industrial carbon emissions and their proportions. Based on the theory of system dynamics, a system dynamics model of industrial carbon emissions in Beijing is established. The model is used to analyze the total amount of industrial carbon emissions, industrial added value, total population. From the perspective of energy consumption demand and carbon emission intensity, this paper simulates and forecasts the industrial carbon emissions in Beijing from 2010 to 2025, and tests the model from three aspects: correctness, validity and sensitivity. Using scenario analysis method to set up four scenario models, namely, benchmark scheme, economic and efficient scheme, energy conservation scheme and economy-economy coordination scheme, and simulate the operating trend of industrial carbon emissions in Beijing between 2010 and 2025 under four scenarios. According to the simulation results, the dynamic simulation results of the four models are compared and analyzed from three aspects: population subsystem, economic subsystem and energy and environment subsystem. Finally, Based on the simulation results, the scenario model suitable for Beijing's industrial development is selected, and suggestions for development are put forward, which can provide policy basis for energy saving and emission reduction in Beijing as well as industrial development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X322;F427

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