本文選題：江西省　切入點：生態(tài)文明建設(shè)　出處：《東華理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：將江西省納入全國首批生態(tài)文明先行示范區(qū)和國家生態(tài)文明試驗區(qū)建設(shè),是黨和國家為復(fù)制推廣生態(tài)文明建設(shè)的江西樣板的所采取的重要舉措,也是對生態(tài)文明實踐的江西樣板的高度認(rèn)可。如何科學(xué)、動態(tài)、系統(tǒng)地對區(qū)域生態(tài)文明建設(shè)及其發(fā)展態(tài)勢進(jìn)行研究分析,以提煉科學(xué)經(jīng)驗,推廣樣板模式,完善政策制度,進(jìn)而使生態(tài)文明實踐成效卓著,是我國眼下生態(tài)文明建設(shè)實踐首要解決的問題。區(qū)域生態(tài)文明建設(shè)系統(tǒng)具有動態(tài)性、復(fù)合性以及突變性。在對江西省生態(tài)文明建設(shè)的社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、資源利用狀況與生態(tài)環(huán)境等方面展開系統(tǒng)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,以生態(tài)文明綜合指數(shù)為目標(biāo),按經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、社會發(fā)展水平、資源利用水平與生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)四個準(zhǔn)則層,從發(fā)展質(zhì)量、公共服務(wù)以及資源利用等八個指標(biāo)層,共計32個指標(biāo),建立了江西省生態(tài)文明建設(shè)評價指標(biāo)體系。運用粗糙集約簡冗余指標(biāo),依據(jù)重要度大小確立突變級數(shù)評價模型,對江西省生態(tài)文明建設(shè)實踐展開評價分析。運用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論與方法,構(gòu)建江西省生態(tài)文明建設(shè)系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,以2010—2014年歷史數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行仿真檢驗,證明仿真模型的結(jié)構(gòu)和行為與江西省生態(tài)文明建設(shè)的實際狀況是相一致的,對2014—2035年間江西省生態(tài)文明建設(shè)的發(fā)展態(tài)勢進(jìn)行仿真模擬。通過對仿真模型變量進(jìn)行靈敏度檢驗,選取規(guī)模以上工業(yè)勞動生產(chǎn)增加率、社會就業(yè)人數(shù)占總?cè)丝诒戎匾约皢挝还I(yè)增加值廢氣排放量等14個控制變量,結(jié)合系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模擬過程中狀態(tài)變量的變化,調(diào)整相關(guān)控制變量參數(shù),設(shè)計出了維持現(xiàn)狀、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)先、資源環(huán)境優(yōu)先和協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展等四種發(fā)展方案,仿真優(yōu)化不同發(fā)展方案下2014—2035年間江西省生態(tài)文明建設(shè)的發(fā)展態(tài)勢,為江西省開展生態(tài)文明先行示范區(qū)和國家生態(tài)文明試驗區(qū)建設(shè)提供決策參考。主要研究結(jié)論有:(1)江西省2005—2014年間生態(tài)文明建設(shè)發(fā)展勢頭良好,生態(tài)文明綜合指數(shù)總體呈上升趨勢,其中社會發(fā)展水平與生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)方面發(fā)展迅速,是推動生態(tài)文明建設(shè)發(fā)展的主要動力,但仍需進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化以及提高資源利用水平。(2)2035年江西省的需水總量、能源消費總量分別達(dá)到892.32億立方米、27747.27萬噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)煤,資源供需平衡指數(shù)在2026年達(dá)到最大值0.2805后開始下降;江西省廢水排放量為19.95億噸,工業(yè)廢氣排放量達(dá)16478.38億立方米,但江西省的生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化程度指數(shù)并不是持續(xù)增長的,而是在2022年達(dá)到最大值0.3070后開始下降,這表明資源供需矛盾加劇與生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化的加重,滯緩了江西省社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的提升,在一定程度上減少了資源消費量與“三廢”排放量,進(jìn)而縮小了資源供需缺口,降低了生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化程度,從而緩解了江西省資源供需緊張的局面,改善了江西省的生態(tài)環(huán)境。(3)到2035年,協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展方案下的江西省的資源供需平衡指數(shù)僅為0.1488,生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化程度指數(shù)也只為0.1695,有利于江西省社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的高效發(fā)展,資源的高效集約利用以及生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù),是促進(jìn)江西省生態(tài)文明建設(shè)實踐的較優(yōu)方案。
[Abstract]:Be included in the Jiangxi Province ecological civilization is one of the first national demonstration zone and the construction of national ecological civilization pilot area, the party and the country is an important measure to promote the construction of ecological civilization Jiangxi copy model adopted, is also highly recognized on the ecological civilization practice of Jiangxi model. How to scientific, dynamic, research and Analysis on the regional ecological civilization construction and the development situation of the system, in order to refine the scientific experience, promotion model, and improve the policy system, and then make the ecological civilization practice of outstanding achievements, is China's current practice of the construction of ecological civilization first solve the problem. The system of ecological civilization construction area is dynamic, complex and abrupt changes. In the construction of ecological civilization in Jiangxi province level the social and economic development on the base of system analysis, resource utilization and ecological environment on the aspects of ecological civilization index as the goal, according to the economic The development level, social development level, the level of resource utilization and ecological environment protection in four of the criteria, the quality of development, public services and resource utilization eight indicators, a total of 32 indicators, establish the evaluation index system for the construction of ecological civilization in Jiangxi. By using rough set reduction redundant indicators, an important basis of establishing size series evaluation model evaluation of mutation, the practice of ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi province is analyzed. By using the theory and method of system dynamics, Jiangxi province to build the ecological civilization construction system dynamics model, from 2010 to 2014 based on historical data simulation test shows that the situation, structure and behavior simulation model of Jiangxi province and the construction of ecological civilization is consistent. The development trend of 2014 - 2035 years in Jiangxi Province, the construction of ecological civilization is simulated. Through the sensitivity test of the simulation model of variable selection Above scale industrial production to increase social employment rate, the proportion of the total population and emissions per unit of industrial added value of 14 control variables, combined with system dynamics simulation state variable change process, adjust the control parameters, designed to maintain the status quo, social and economic priorities, four development schemes and resource environment priority coordinated development, simulation and optimization of different development schemes of 2014 - 2035 years in Jiangxi Province, the construction of ecological civilization development trend, as the first demonstration area of ecological civilization construction and the National Experimental Zone provides the reference of ecological civilization in Jiangxi province. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) in Jiangxi province from 2005 to 2014 years of development of ecological civilization construction of good momentum. The comprehensive index of ecological civilization, the overall upward trend, the level of social development and ecological environment protection in the rapid development, is to promote the construction of ecological civilization. The main power of development, but still need to further strengthen the optimization of industrial structure and improve the level of resource utilization. (2) the total water demand of Jiangxi province in 2035, the total energy consumption reached 89 billion 232 million cubic meters, 277 million 472 thousand and 700 tons of standard coal resources supply and demand balance index reached the maximum value of 0.2805 began to decline in 2026; Jiangxi province wastewater emissions 19.95 tons, industrial emissions amounted to 1 trillion and 647 billion 838 million cubic meters, but the ecological environment of Jiangxi Province, the degree of deterioration index is not growing, it reaches the maximum value after 0.3070 began to decline in 2022, suggesting that the increased resources supply and demand increased with the deterioration of the ecological environment, slow development of social economy in Jiangxi province to enhance the level, to a certain degree to reduce the resource consumption and the "three wastes" emissions, thereby reducing the gap between supply and demand of resources, reduce the deterioration of ecological environment, and alleviate the river from The supply and demand of the West Province resources tense situation, improve the ecological environment of Jiangxi province. (3) to 2035, the balance of supply and demand in Jiangxi province resources coordinated development index scheme is only 0.1488, deterioration of ecological environment index is only 0.1695, Jiangxi Province, is conducive to social and economic efficient development, intensive use of resources and the protection of the ecological environment, promote better ecological civilization construction in Jiangxi province.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X821

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