本文關(guān)鍵詞： 二氧化硫 二氧化碳 指數(shù)分解分析 影響因素 制造業(yè)　出處：《武漢大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng),一躍變成GDP僅次于美國(guó)的第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,被稱為"中國(guó)奇跡"。但是在快速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過程中也消耗了大量能源,帶來嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境污染,以往的發(fā)展方式已經(jīng)不能滿足當(dāng)今經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需求。面臨全球變暖、能源耗竭、生態(tài)破壞的大環(huán)境,控制污染氣體的排放已經(jīng)變成人類迫在眉睫的任務(wù)。其中,最為關(guān)鍵和主要的大氣排放物就是二氧化硫和二氧化碳。由于制造業(yè)又是污染排放的大戶,在此背景下,研究我國(guó)制造業(yè)各個(gè)行業(yè)的二氧化硫、二氧化碳排放的影響因素,并分析他們對(duì)排放的影響方向以及貢獻(xiàn)大小具有一定的理論意義。由于二氧化硫、二氧化碳屬于兩種不同性質(zhì)的排放物,所以本文試圖探究?jī)烧叩呐欧帕孔兓町?并分析各個(gè)影響因素對(duì)它們排放的貢獻(xiàn)差異。本文的研究結(jié)論也會(huì)給我國(guó)制造業(yè)各個(gè)行業(yè)的節(jié)能減排政策提供十分重要指導(dǎo)意義。本文第一章介紹了研究背景,隨后概述二氧化硫、二氧化碳影響因素研究的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)。第二章首先通過對(duì)基礎(chǔ)理論的介紹和梳理,闡述了環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論,然后從理論角度解釋了每個(gè)因素與二氧化硫與二氧化碳排放的關(guān)系及影響機(jī)理。本文第三章描述了作為主要大氣污染物二氧化碳和二氧化硫的排放現(xiàn)狀,包括區(qū)域特征和行業(yè)特征。第四章首先介紹了影響因素分析的兩種方法:SDA和IDA,并著重介紹了 LMDI,即本文的研究方法,隨后建立了 LMDI模型,并將我國(guó)制造業(yè)二氧化硫、二氧化碳排放的影響因素分解為經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模因素、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)因素、技術(shù)進(jìn)步因素、能源結(jié)構(gòu)因素,由于"十一五"期間大力整治二氧化硫排放,所以在上述四個(gè)因素的基礎(chǔ)上,把治理因素納入到二氧化硫排放因素分解中。最后一章歸納結(jié)論并提出政策建議。結(jié)果顯示:整個(gè)研究期間內(nèi),最大的增排因素是規(guī)模因素;最大的減排因素則是技術(shù)進(jìn)步因素;能源結(jié)構(gòu)的變化對(duì)排放量的影響具有波動(dòng)性;產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化對(duì)減排的貢獻(xiàn)十分有限;由政策引起的治理因素則在"十一五"期間最為明顯。規(guī)模因素和技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)二氧化硫、二氧化碳的影響周期略有差異。針對(duì)以上五個(gè)減排因素,本文提出以下政策建議:合理控制產(chǎn)能規(guī)模,早日實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與排放增加的脫鉤;引導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí),淘汰落后產(chǎn)能,發(fā)展現(xiàn)代制造業(yè);推動(dòng)節(jié)能減排技術(shù)的進(jìn)步,發(fā)展新材料、新能源技術(shù),加強(qiáng)國(guó)際合作和交流;優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu),降低化石能源的使用比例,大力發(fā)展新能源和可再生能源,依據(jù)地區(qū)能源結(jié)構(gòu)來安排行業(yè)發(fā)展;加強(qiáng)治理與環(huán)境規(guī)制,減少尾端排放,提高治污效率。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has grown rapidly, becoming the second largest economy after the United States in GDP, known as the "Chinese miracle." but in the process of rapid economic growth, it has also consumed a lot of energy and brought serious environmental pollution. In the face of global warming, energy depletion and ecological destruction, controlling the emission of polluting gases has become an urgent task for mankind. The most critical and major atmospheric emissions are sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide. Since the manufacturing industry is also a major polluter, in this context, the factors affecting sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions in various sectors of the manufacturing industry in China are studied. It is of certain theoretical significance to analyze their influence direction and contribution to emissions. Because sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide belong to two different emissions, this paper tries to explore the difference of their emissions. The conclusion of this paper will also provide a very important guidance for the policies of energy saving and emission reduction in the manufacturing industry in China. The first chapter of this paper introduces the research background. The second chapter firstly introduces and combs the basic theory, expounds the environmental economics and the sustainable development theory, then summarizes the related literatures of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide influencing factors, the second chapter expounds the environmental economics and the sustainable development theory through the introduction and combing of the basic theory. Then, the relationship between each factor and sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emission and its influence mechanism are explained theoretically. Chapter three describes the current situation of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions, which are the main atmospheric pollutants. Chapter 4th introduces two methods of influencing factor analysis:: SDA and Ida, and mainly introduces LMDI, that is, the research method of this paper, then establishes the LMDI model, and introduces the sulfur dioxide of manufacturing industry in China. The factors that affect carbon dioxide emissions are divided into economic scale factors, industrial structure factors, technological progress factors, energy structure factors, as a result of the "11th Five-Year Plan" to vigorously regulate sulfur dioxide emissions, so on the basis of the above four factors, The final chapter summarizes the conclusion and puts forward the policy suggestion. The result shows that the biggest factor of increasing emission is the scale factor during the whole study period; The biggest factor of emission reduction is the factor of technological progress; the impact of energy structure change on emissions is volatile; the contribution of industrial structure optimization to emission reduction is very limited; The governance factors caused by the policy were most obvious during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period. The scale factors and technological advances had slightly different impact cycles on SO2 and CO2. In view of the above five emission reduction factors, This paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: reasonably control the scale of production capacity, realize the decoupling of economic development and emission increase at an early date, guide the upgrading of industrial structure, eliminate backward production capacity, develop modern manufacturing industry, promote the progress of energy-saving and emission reduction technology, Develop new materials, new energy technologies, strengthen international cooperation and exchange, optimize energy structure, reduce the proportion of fossil energy use, vigorously develop new and renewable energy sources, and arrange industry development according to regional energy structure; Strengthen management and environmental regulation, reduce emissions at the tail end, and improve pollution control efficiency.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X701;X51;F424

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