本文關(guān)鍵詞： 霧霾 社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素 STIRPAT模型 面板數(shù)據(jù) 分位數(shù)回歸　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,中國(guó)城市霧霾污染問(wèn)題日益嚴(yán)峻,許多城市飽受霧霾侵襲,霧霾污染問(wèn)題引起了廣泛關(guān)注。在追求經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí),我們也應(yīng)該重視環(huán)境的保護(hù)。雖然目前各有關(guān)部門已經(jīng)采取了—系列措施來(lái)緩解霧霾污染問(wèn)題,但城市霧霾污染依然很嚴(yán)重。為了科學(xué)有效地治理霧霾,本文從社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度出發(fā)來(lái)探討影響中國(guó)城市霧霾污染的主要社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素,以及這些社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對(duì)霧霾的影響方向和影響程度大小,并據(jù)此為中國(guó)城市霧霾的治理提出科學(xué)合理的建議。這對(duì)于中國(guó)生態(tài)文明建設(shè)和人民健康生活具有十分重要的意義。本文在文獻(xiàn)研究、理論研究以及中國(guó)城市霧霾污染現(xiàn)狀特征研究的基礎(chǔ)上分析了影響中國(guó)城市霧霾形成的主要社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素,并據(jù)此進(jìn)行建模實(shí)證分析。本文通過(guò)對(duì)STIRPAT模型的擴(kuò)展,選取中國(guó)2013年46個(gè)城市和2014年94個(gè)城市的數(shù)據(jù),以PM2.5年平均濃度表示城市霧霾污染程度,分析人口密度、人均地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值、單位GDP的用電量、公路客運(yùn)量占客運(yùn)總量的比重、民用汽車擁有量、城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭人均可支配收入以及建成區(qū)綠化覆蓋率對(duì)中國(guó)城市霧霾污染的影響,并探討了中國(guó)城市霧霾與人均地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值之間是否存在環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線關(guān)系。然后又對(duì)論文數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了分位數(shù)回歸,分析處于不同污染水平時(shí),各社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對(duì)城市霧霾的影響。研究結(jié)果表明:人口密度、單位GDP的用電量、公路客運(yùn)量占客運(yùn)總量的比重及民用汽車擁有量對(duì)中國(guó)城市霧霾天氣具有正向的影響,城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭人均可支配收入、建成區(qū)綠化覆蓋率對(duì)中國(guó)城市霧霾天氣具有負(fù)向的影響。人均地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值與中國(guó)城市霧霾之間的關(guān)系符合環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線。霧霾污染處于中等水平的城市,公路客運(yùn)量占客運(yùn)總量的比重、民用汽車擁有量以及城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭人均可支配收入這三個(gè)指標(biāo)對(duì)城市霧霾的影響小于城市霧霾污染水平更低和更高的城市。并根據(jù)實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,結(jié)合國(guó)外城市霧霾治理的經(jīng)驗(yàn),從城市人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)、交通和綠化建設(shè)五個(gè)方面為中國(guó)城市霧霾的治理提出合理的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of social economy, the problem of haze pollution in Chinese cities is becoming more and more serious. Many cities have been attacked by haze, and the problem of haze pollution has aroused widespread concern. We should also pay attention to the protection of the environment. Although various departments concerned have taken a series of measures to alleviate the problem of haze pollution, the pollution of urban haze is still very serious. From the point of view of social economy, this paper discusses the main social and economic factors that affect the haze pollution in Chinese cities, as well as the direction and extent of the influence of these social and economic factors on haze. It is of great significance for the construction of Chinese ecological civilization and the healthy life of the people to make scientific and reasonable suggestions for the governance of haze in Chinese cities. Based on the theoretical research and the characteristics of haze pollution in Chinese cities, this paper analyzes the main social and economic factors that affect the formation of haze in Chinese cities, and makes a modeling and empirical analysis accordingly. Based on the data of 46 cities in 2013 and 94 cities in 2014, the average annual concentration of PM2.5 is used to express the degree of haze pollution in cities. The population density, the per capita regional GDP, the electricity consumption per unit of GDP and the proportion of road passenger traffic to the total passenger transportation are analyzed. The impact of civilian vehicle ownership, the per capita disposable income of urban households and the green coverage of established areas on haze pollution in Chinese cities, The environmental Kuznets curve between urban haze and GDP per capita in China is also discussed. Then quantile regression is used to analyze the pollution level. The results show that population density, electricity consumption per unit GDP, the proportion of road passenger traffic to total passenger transport and the ownership of civilian cars have positive effects on the urban haze weather in China. The per capita disposable income of urban households, The relationship between the per capita regional gross domestic product (GDP) and the haze of Chinese cities is in line with the environmental Kuznets curve. The haze pollution is in the middle level of the cities, and the relationship between the per capita regional gross domestic product and the urban haze is in line with the environmental Kuznets curve. The proportion of highway passenger traffic to total passenger transport, The impact of the three indicators of civilian vehicle ownership and per capita disposable income of urban households on urban haze is smaller than that of cities with lower and higher levels of haze pollution. Combined with the experience of haze governance in foreign cities, this paper puts forward some reasonable policy suggestions for the governance of haze in Chinese cities from five aspects: urban population, economy, technology, traffic and greening construction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X51

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