本文關(guān)鍵詞： 水質(zhì)模型 參數(shù)率定 靈敏度分析 不確定性分析　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：以梁溪河和京杭運(yùn)河無(wú)錫段的網(wǎng)狀水系為研究區(qū),根據(jù)區(qū)域水動(dòng)力路徑以及水流控制條件對(duì)河網(wǎng)水系進(jìn)行概化,基于MIKE11 AD模型建立梁溪河水質(zhì)模型,使用2013-2014年水文實(shí)測(cè)資料和水質(zhì)監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)水量-水質(zhì)模型進(jìn)行率定與驗(yàn)證。在此基礎(chǔ)上,采用Morris法對(duì)梁溪河水質(zhì)模型的率定參數(shù)進(jìn)行了靈敏度分析,使用GLUE法對(duì)建立的梁溪河水質(zhì)模型進(jìn)行輸入數(shù)據(jù)與參數(shù)的不確定性綜合研究。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)MIKE11模型在研究區(qū)域具備很好的適用性。(2)河床糙率系數(shù)為第Ⅲ類敏感性系數(shù),而擴(kuò)散系數(shù)屬第Ⅰ類敏感性系數(shù)。河床糙率取值越大,模擬水位越高。(3)COD的不確定性主要來(lái)源于參數(shù)n和D;TP的不確定性主要來(lái)源于擴(kuò)散系數(shù)D。與COD相比,TP更容易受輸入數(shù)據(jù)的不確定性的影響。無(wú)錫梁溪河的水質(zhì)模型的不確定性主要來(lái)源于參數(shù)的不確定性。
[Abstract]:Taking the network water system in Wuxi section of Liangxi River and Beijing-Hangzhou Canal as the study area, the river network water system is generalized according to the regional hydrodynamic path and the water flow control conditions. Based on the MIKE11 AD model, the water quality model of Liangxi River was established, and the water quality model was determined and verified by using the hydrological data and water quality monitoring data from 2013-2014. The sensitivity of the water quality model of Liangxi River was analyzed by Morris method. The uncertainty of input data and parameters of the water quality model of Liangxi River was studied by using GLUE method. The results show that the 1 / 1 / MiKE11 model has good applicability in the study area. 2) the roughness coefficient of river bed is the third type sensitivity coefficient. The higher the roughness of the river bed, the higher the simulated water level. The uncertainty of COD is mainly derived from the parameters n and D; The uncertainty of TP mainly comes from the diffusion coefficient D. compared with COD. TP is more susceptible to the uncertainty of input data, and the uncertainty of water quality model of Liangxi River in Wuxi mainly comes from the uncertainty of parameters.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X52

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