【摘要】： 對突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理的研究已經(jīng)涉及體系建設(shè)、預(yù)案管理、教育培訓(xùn)、資源布局、資源調(diào)度、人員疏散等問題。由于突發(fā)事件發(fā)展演變過程的不確定性,整個應(yīng)急管理過程就是一個動態(tài)博弈的過程。 動態(tài)博弈網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)完整地描述了應(yīng)急管理過程的動態(tài)性和博弈性,是由多個決策模型和方法有機組合而成的應(yīng)急管理技術(shù)。本文從實際問題出發(fā),圍繞動態(tài)博弈網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)中的決策模型展開研究。 首先,研究不完全信息狀態(tài)下的動態(tài)博弈過程。應(yīng)急方案與計劃的制訂應(yīng)該根據(jù)事件發(fā)展階段和狀況進行連續(xù)的、實時的調(diào)整,因而,基于不完全信息狀態(tài)下的動態(tài)博弈思維自然成為了我們動態(tài)制定應(yīng)急處置方案的有力工具。通過分析突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急處置過程中的管理主體之間、管理客體之間以及主客體之間存在廣泛的博弈關(guān)系,在分析應(yīng)急博弈的特性和各類要素的基礎(chǔ)上,能夠了解不完全信息狀態(tài)下的大致博弈過程。 其次,研究不完全信息狀態(tài)下的預(yù)案選擇問題。在實際工作中,事件爆發(fā)初期的判斷往往存在偏差,預(yù)案在執(zhí)行過程中的動態(tài)調(diào)整必不可少。該問題是研究信息不完全時,資源有限和時間限制下,如何選擇既滿足處置要求又便于調(diào)整的預(yù)案。對于同一類突發(fā)事件編制的應(yīng)急預(yù)案,不同預(yù)案對不同結(jié)果的處置效果不同,可以使用處置時間、動用資源和損失的大小來衡量。使用調(diào)整到最佳處置方案所用時間、資源和調(diào)整后方案的處置效果與最佳效果之間的偏差,來衡量預(yù)案之間轉(zhuǎn)換和調(diào)整的難易程度和效果,在定義預(yù)案調(diào)整效能和處置效能概念的基礎(chǔ)上,針對兩種不同歷史資料狀況,建立調(diào)整效能與處置效能期望值最大化的數(shù)學(xué)模型和悲觀原則下的預(yù)案選擇模型。 第三,研究應(yīng)急方案的網(wǎng)絡(luò)表達。使用網(wǎng)絡(luò)表達應(yīng)急方案是使用動態(tài)博弈網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)的基礎(chǔ),也是解決應(yīng)急聯(lián)動問題的方法之一。本文分析了實現(xiàn)應(yīng)急聯(lián)動的要素,在項目管理中的網(wǎng)絡(luò)計劃理論指導(dǎo)下,給出制定步驟。從應(yīng)急過程的特征出發(fā),增加了每條邊的資源保障率的屬性,并給出了此屬性下的關(guān)鍵鏈管理方法。 最后,本文對以上工作進行了總結(jié),并對進一步研究進行了展望。
[Abstract]:The research on emergency management has been involved in system construction, plan management, education and training, resource distribution, resource scheduling, personnel evacuation and so on. The whole process of emergency management is a dynamic game process because of the uncertainty of the development and evolution process of unexpected events. Dynamic game network technology describes the dynamic and game nature of emergency management process. It is an emergency management technology which is composed of multiple decision models and methods. In this paper, the decision model of dynamic game network technology is studied based on practical problems. Firstly, the dynamic game process under incomplete information is studied. Emergency plans and plans should be formulated in a continuous, real-time manner according to the stage and status of the event, so that, The dynamic game thinking based on incomplete information naturally becomes a powerful tool for us to make emergency solutions dynamically. Through the analysis of the extensive game relations among the management subjects, the management objects and the subject and object in the emergency handling process, the characteristics and various elements of the emergency game are analyzed. Can understand the rough game process in the state of incomplete information. Secondly, the problem of the selection of plan under incomplete information is studied. In the actual work, the judgment at the initial stage of the event is often biased, and the dynamic adjustment of the plan in the execution process is essential. The problem is how to choose a plan which meets the requirements of disposal and is easy to adjust when the information is incomplete and the resources are limited and the time limit is limited. For the emergency plan compiled by the same type of emergency, different plans have different effects on different results, which can be measured by using disposal time, using resources and the size of loss. Using the time taken to adjust to the optimal disposal plan, the deviation between the resources and the disposal effect of the adjusted programme and the best effect, to measure the ease and effectiveness of the conversion and adjustment between the plans, On the basis of defining the concepts of adjustment efficiency and disposal efficiency, the mathematical model of maximizing the expected value of adjustment efficiency and disposal effectiveness and the model of plan selection under the pessimistic principle are established in view of two different historical data conditions. Third, study the network expression of emergency plan. Using network to express emergency plan is the basis of using dynamic game network technology, and it is also one of the methods to solve the problem of emergency linkage. Under the guidance of network planning theory in project management, this paper analyzes the elements of realizing emergency linkage, and gives the steps of formulation. According to the characteristics of emergency process, the attribute of resource guarantee rate of each edge is added, and the key chain management method under this attribute is given. Finally, this paper summarizes the above work, and prospects for further research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中央民族大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：D035

【引證文獻】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 黃德啟;面向區(qū)域路網(wǎng)的應(yīng)急資源布局與調(diào)度方法研究[D];武漢理工大學(xué);2012年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 韓田田;基于復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的應(yīng)急管理協(xié)調(diào)研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2012年

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本文編號：2282312