本文選題：廣西 + 米價��； 參考：《廣西師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】："國以民為本,民以食為天。"這一諺語反映出民食問題的重要性。糧價亦被譽為社會的"晴雨表"。歷代統(tǒng)治者都非常重視糧食的增產(chǎn)和調(diào)劑供應(yīng)。清代滿族入主中原,為求政權(quán)穩(wěn)固,更加重視糧食問題。自康熙朝開始就要求各省督撫在其奏折中專門或者附帶呈報當(dāng)?shù)丶Z價情況,并在乾隆元年(1736)把以府州為單位上奏糧價一事制度化,此后逐漸形成了系統(tǒng)的糧價數(shù)據(jù)。陶孟和、湯象龍等人在1930至1937年間對這批糧價檔案進(jìn)行了整理和統(tǒng)計,形成道光至宣統(tǒng)間糧價表。糧價表所載南方各省糧價以米價為主,廣西省是為其一。通過整理、計算糧價表所載1840至1910年間廣西米價,梳理這一時期廣西米價的波動情況,包括長期趨勢和年際波動。分析其特點、原因和影響,并以米價為線索考察當(dāng)時廣西社會經(jīng)濟的變遷。本文以馬克思主義唯物史觀為指導(dǎo),運用歷史學(xué)、社會學(xué)、經(jīng)濟學(xué)、統(tǒng)計學(xué)等學(xué)科的理論、方法和利用計算機等輔助工具,多維度、多視角探析廣西米價的波動及其社會經(jīng)濟的變遷。并具體運用個案分析、計量分析、綜合歸納等方法進(jìn)行具體、深入的分析。本文由引言、廣西米價波動情況綜述、廣西米價長期趨勢變化的因素、廣西米價年際波動變化的因素、廣西米價波動的社會經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)評析和結(jié)語六部分組成。文章引言部分介紹了選題的緣由和意義、資料收集與運用、研究思路和方法及內(nèi)容等,并就學(xué)界關(guān)于清代米價研究的現(xiàn)狀和不足進(jìn)行回顧。第一章運用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計和個案分析等方法,分析了廣西米價的長期趨勢和年際波動的情況及其特點,并提出問題,即"廣西省的米價以19世紀(jì)70年代為界,前后的狀態(tài)為何發(fā)生了如此大的變化?第二章采用文獻(xiàn)分析和數(shù)理統(tǒng)計相結(jié)合的方法,論述了廣西米價長期趨勢發(fā)生變化的因素。其中人口耕地這一傳統(tǒng)的主導(dǎo)因素不再能夠主導(dǎo)晚清廣西米價長期趨勢的變化。但通過分析,厘清了晚清時期廣西人口耕地變遷的情況,即晚清時期廣西的人口整體上保持著平穩(wěn)增長的趨勢,并未出現(xiàn)大幅度的升降的情況;而耕地面積亦未發(fā)生大的變化,基本上可以說是一個定量,人地矛盾并未進(jìn)一步惡化。不過耕地的價格處于一種上漲的趨勢中。因戰(zhàn)爭而出現(xiàn)的厘金制度毫無疑問地推動了米價上漲,但其影響力比較微弱。傳統(tǒng)的銀錢比例也只能夠?qū)γ變r的長期趨勢構(gòu)成一定的影響,而非根本性的。真正主導(dǎo)廣西米價長期趨勢變化的因素是世界白銀價值的變化,二者間的相關(guān)系數(shù)為-0.74,具有顯著的相關(guān)性。同時,中國紊亂的貨幣體系和世界經(jīng)濟周期也是其重要因素。第三章以個案分析為主,論述了廣西米價年際波動穩(wěn)定性發(fā)生改變的因素。戰(zhàn)爭會導(dǎo)致米價發(fā)生短暫的波動;災(zāi)害是廣西米價發(fā)生年際波動的最直接因素,二者相關(guān)系數(shù)達(dá)0.825,屬高度相關(guān);同時,荒政機制的缺失加劇了米價波動的局面;當(dāng)然,在這一過程中也萌發(fā)了一些調(diào)控米價的新措施,雖然其效用是微不足道的,但卻昭示著未來社會新機制發(fā)展的方向,并奠定了一定的基礎(chǔ)。第四章評析了廣西米價波動的社會經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)。它違背了價值規(guī)律,是社會經(jīng)濟的異動,米價低廉之時加重了農(nóng)民的田賦負(fù)擔(dān),高漲之時促成了通貨膨脹局面的形成;也是社會矛盾代謝的過程,災(zāi)害時期米價高漲,同時荒政機制缺失,致使米谷流通非正�；�;更為甚者,高米價激發(fā)社會矛盾,造成社會動蕩不安。之所以會出現(xiàn)這樣的局面,與晚清中國不能應(yīng)時應(yīng)事而改變治國之策略、更新國家機構(gòu)、順應(yīng)社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展潮流關(guān)系密切。晚清廣西米價的波動反映出了轉(zhuǎn)型期社會經(jīng)濟的異象和新陳代謝,社會經(jīng)濟在受到資本主義世界市場沖擊的同時,傳統(tǒng)的社會經(jīng)濟矛盾仍然在繼續(xù)發(fā)展,是半殖民地半封建社會背景下社會經(jīng)濟變遷的具體體現(xiàn)。廣西社會經(jīng)濟的這一變遷,展示了轉(zhuǎn)型期廣西傳統(tǒng)社會的痛苦和裂變。以史為鑒可以明得失,廣西近代社會經(jīng)濟變遷的經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)必將為我們今日的社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展提供一定的借鑒和警示作用。我們應(yīng)以史為鑒,從廣西米價的波動中汲取經(jīng)驗、教訓(xùn),推動今日社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The proverb reflects the importance of the problem of food and food. The grain price is also known as the "barometer" of the society. The rulers of all dynasties attach great importance to the increase of grain and the supply of food. The Manchu people of the Qing Dynasty were the main part of the Central Plains in order to seek political power and to pay more attention to food and food. Since the beginning of Kangxi, the governors were asked to play in them. In the yuan year of Qianlong (1736), the price of grain was institutionalized in the yuan year of Qianlong (1736), and the grain price data were gradually formed since the first year of Qianlong. The grain price of the southern provinces is mainly rice price, Guangxi province is one. Through sorting out the price of Guangxi rice price from 1840 to 1910, the fluctuation situation of Guangxi rice price in this period is combed, including the long-term trend and interannual fluctuation. The characteristics, reasons and effects are analyzed, and the change of the social and economic changes in Guangxi at that time is examined with the rice price as the clue. This paper, guided by the historical materialism of Marx, uses the theories of history, sociology, economics, statistics and other disciplines, methods and the use of computer and other auxiliary tools, multi dimension and multi perspective to analyze the fluctuation of Guangxi rice price and its social and economic changes, and concretely apply the methods of case analysis, measurement analysis and comprehensive induction. This article from the introduction, the Guangxi rice price fluctuation summary, the Guangxi rice price long-term trend change factor, the Guangxi rice price interannual fluctuation change factor, the Guangxi rice price fluctuation social economic effect evaluation and the conclusion six parts. The article introduction part introduced the reason and the significance of the topic, the data collection and application, the research thought In the first chapter, the paper analyzes the long-term trend and the interannual fluctuation of rice price in Guangxi and its characteristics, and puts forward some questions, namely, "the price of rice in Guangxi is bounded by 1870s, and what is the state of the front and back." The second chapter, with the combination of literature analysis and mathematical statistics, discusses the factors that change the long-term trend of rice price in Guangxi. Among them, the traditional dominant factor of population arable land is no longer able to lead the change of the long-term trend of rice price in the late Qing Dynasty in Guangxi. But through analysis, it clarifies the population ploughing of Guangxi in the late Qing Dynasty. The situation of land change, that is, the population of Guangxi in the late Qing Dynasty maintained a steady growth trend, and there was no large fluctuation, but the area of cultivated land had not changed greatly. Basically, it could be said to be a quantitative and the contradiction between human and land did not deteriorate further. However, the price of cultivated land was in a trend of rising. There is no doubt that the Li Jin system has promoted the rise of rice price, but its influence is weak. The proportion of traditional silver money can only affect the long-term trend of rice price, but not fundamental. The factor of the change of the long-term trend of Guangxi rice price is the change of the value of the world white silver, the correlation coefficient between the two is -0. 74, there is a significant correlation. At the same time, China's disorganized monetary system and the world economic cycle are also important factors. The third chapter mainly deals with the factors that change the stability of the inter annual fluctuation of rice price in Guangxi. The war will lead to a short fluctuation in the price of rice; the disaster is the most direct cause of the inter annual fluctuation of the rice price in Guangxi. The correlation coefficient of the two is 0.825, which is highly correlated; at the same time, the lack of the waste policy mechanism aggravates the situation of the fluctuation of rice price; of course, some new measures to regulate the price of rice have been sprouted in this process, although their utility is insignificant, it shows the direction of the development of the new mechanism of the future society, and lays a foundation for the fourth chapters. The social and economic effects of the fluctuation of rice price in Guangxi are evaluated and analyzed. It violates the law of value, is a social and economic movement, and it aggravates the farmer's burden of land when the price of rice is low. It also contributes to the formation of the inflation situation, the process of social contradiction metabolism, the high price of rice in the disaster period and the lack of the waste policy mechanism, which leads to the circulation of rice grain. In the late Qing Dynasty, the fluctuation of the rice price in the late Qing Dynasty reflected the difference of social economy in the transition period. The traditional social and economic contradictions are still developing and the concrete embodiment of social and economic changes under the background of semi colonial and semi feudal society. This change of social economy in Guangxi shows the pain and fission of the traditional society of Guangxi in the transition period. In order to understand the gains and losses, the experience and lessons of the modern social and economic changes in Guangxi will provide some reference and warning for our social and economic development today. We should learn from history and draw lessons from the fluctuation of rice price in Guangxi to promote the development of today's society and economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F329;K252

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