本文選題：趙烈文 + 曾國藩　； 參考：《甘肅社會科學(xué)》2014年04期

【摘要】：1867年6月20日,曾國藩的幕僚趙烈文在與曾國藩談到國家的未來時曾預(yù)言清朝在五十年內(nèi)必亡。對清政府崩潰的形式和日期,以及清朝中央政權(quán)垮臺后的國內(nèi)形勢都做出了精確的預(yù)言。趙烈文主要是從歷史大勢、清朝統(tǒng)治道德合法性的缺失、民族矛盾、清朝中央政府權(quán)威的喪失及其引發(fā)的政治危機、清朝統(tǒng)治集團能力等幾個方面來判斷清朝將五十年內(nèi)崩潰。之后,中國近代歷史發(fā)展的軌跡基本應(yīng)驗了趙烈文的預(yù)言。趙烈文的預(yù)見性主要基于他對歷史、現(xiàn)狀深刻的了解和認知之上。
[Abstract]:On June 20 th, 1867, Zhao Liwen, Zeng Guofan's chief of staff, spoke with Zeng Guofan about the future of the country, predicting that the Qing Dynasty would die within 50 years. The form and date of the collapse of the Qing government and the domestic situation after the collapse of the Central Government of the Qing Dynasty were accurately predicted. Zhao Liwen mainly judged the collapse of the Qing Dynasty within 50 years from the following aspects: the general trend of history, the lack of moral legitimacy in the Qing Dynasty, the ethnic contradictions, the loss of the authority of the central government of the Qing Dynasty and the political crisis caused by the loss of the authority of the Central Government of the Qing Dynasty and the ability of the ruling clique of the Qing Dynasty. After that, the track of Chinese modern history basically fulfilled Zhao Liwen's prophecy. Zhao Liwen's foresight is mainly based on his profound understanding and cognition of history and present situation.
【作者單位】： 中州大學(xué);
【分類號】：K249
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本文編號：1880003