【摘要】：京津冀一體化發(fā)展被提升到重大國家戰(zhàn)略的高度。2010年國家“十二五規(guī)劃”明確提出要將“京津冀區(qū)域一體化”和建設(shè)“首都經(jīng)濟(jì)圈”列為國家級區(qū)域發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。2014年中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會議中,“京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展”與“一帶一路”、“長江經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”一并成為國家的三大區(qū)域發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。根據(jù)習(xí)近平總書記提出的七點要求,京津冀一體化發(fā)展的第一要求是明確地區(qū)內(nèi)的產(chǎn)業(yè)功能定位和分工,可以說,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整才是京津冀地區(qū)合作發(fā)展的重點。因此,京津冀一體化發(fā)展將對京津冀地區(qū)制造業(yè)和物流業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)及相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生重大影響,繼而對制造業(yè)與物流業(yè)的共生發(fā)展產(chǎn)生較大影響。本文對一體化下京津冀制造業(yè)與物流業(yè)的共生發(fā)展進(jìn)行分析,然后考慮京津冀一體化發(fā)展的環(huán)境變化,建立共生發(fā)展模型,最后對兩業(yè)共生發(fā)展的穩(wěn)定性進(jìn)行分析進(jìn)而得出結(jié)論,并據(jù)結(jié)論提出實施建議。本文主要包括以下內(nèi)容:首先,本文在深入了解京津冀一體化發(fā)展各項政策及規(guī)劃,以及制造業(yè)與物流業(yè)共生發(fā)展現(xiàn)有研究的基礎(chǔ)上,對京津冀制造業(yè)種群、物流業(yè)種群以及制造業(yè)物流種群和制造業(yè)與物流業(yè)環(huán)境容量進(jìn)行概念界定,然后對京津冀一體化背景下制造業(yè)與物流業(yè)的種群生長的特點進(jìn)行較為深入的分析。其次,本文根據(jù)共生理論和區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)混合聯(lián)動理論以及共生環(huán)境的分析等,分析建立了京津冀一體化背景下制造業(yè)與物流業(yè)的共生發(fā)展機(jī)制,包括框架機(jī)制和系統(tǒng)機(jī)制,利用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)基本方法對系統(tǒng)機(jī)制進(jìn)行分析,建立因果關(guān)系圖,并進(jìn)行具體分析,得出一體化下影響兩業(yè)共生發(fā)展的共生和環(huán)境作用因素。最后,利用logistic方程,以京津冀制造業(yè)與物流業(yè)共生發(fā)展的初始模型為基礎(chǔ),將兩業(yè)共生發(fā)展影響因素中的環(huán)境作用因素定量反映到初始共生發(fā)展模型中,得到新的共生發(fā)展模型的穩(wěn)定點及穩(wěn)定條件,同時明確共生發(fā)展穩(wěn)定性的影響因素。最后就共生預(yù)測穩(wěn)定點與各因素之間的影響關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析,得出京津冀一體化下共生穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的具體影響結(jié)論并提出相關(guān)實施建議。
[Abstract]:The development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration has been raised to the height of major national strategy. The "12th Five-Year Plan" of 2010 clearly proposed that "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional integration" and the construction of "Capital Economic Circle" should be listed as the national regional development strategy. . at the 2014 Central Economic work Conference, "Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei coordinated development", "Belt and Road" and "Yangtze economic belt" have become the three regional development strategies of our country. According to General Secretary Xi Jinping's seven-point demand, the first requirement for the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is to define the industrial function and division of labor in the region. It can be said that the adjustment of the industrial structure is the focus of the cooperation and development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Therefore, the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration will have a great impact on the development of manufacturing industry, logistics industry and related industries in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and then on the symbiotic development of manufacturing industry and logistics industry. This paper analyzes the symbiotic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei manufacturing industry and logistics industry under integration, and then establishes a symbiotic development model considering the environmental changes of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration development. Finally, the stability of symbiotic development of the two industries is analyzed and conclusions are drawn, and suggestions for implementation are put forward. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, on the basis of in-depth understanding of the policies and plans for the integrated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, as well as the existing research on the symbiotic development of manufacturing industry and logistics industry, this paper analyzes the manufacturing industry population of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The concept of logistics population, manufacturing logistics population and environmental capacity of manufacturing industry and logistics industry are defined, and then the characteristics of population growth of manufacturing industry and logistics industry under the background of integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are analyzed deeply. Secondly, based on the symbiotic theory, the regional industrial mixed linkage theory and the analysis of symbiotic environment, this paper analyzes and establishes the symbiotic development mechanism of manufacturing industry and logistics industry under the background of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, including the frame mechanism and the system mechanism. The basic method of system dynamics is used to analyze the mechanism of the system, and the causality diagram is established, and the concrete analysis is carried out, and the symbiotic and environmental factors affecting the symbiotic development of the two industries under the integration are obtained. Finally, based on the initial model of the symbiotic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei manufacturing industry and logistics industry, the environmental factors of the two industry symbiotic development factors are quantitatively reflected in the initial symbiotic development model by using logistic equation. The stability points and conditions of the new symbiotic development model are obtained, and the influencing factors of the stability of symbiotic development are defined. Finally, the influence relationship between the stability point of symbiotic prediction and the factors is analyzed, and the concrete conclusions of the symbiotic and stable development under the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are drawn and the relevant implementation suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F427;F259.27

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 唐強榮;徐學(xué)軍;何自力;;生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)與制造業(yè)共生發(fā)展模型及實證研究[J];南開管理評論;2009年03期

2 ;世界各國養(yǎng)魚向魚菜共生發(fā)展[J];湖南農(nóng)業(yè);1996年01期

3 馬斌，宋順清;熱帶農(nóng)業(yè)與熱帶旅游業(yè)的共生發(fā)展模式[J];資源開發(fā)與市場;1996年04期

4 孫圣勇;;論鄉(xiāng)(鎮(zhèn))善治的多中心共生發(fā)展政策[J];企業(yè)導(dǎo)報;2009年08期

5 袁年興;譚曉靜;;共存與共贏:民族共生發(fā)展模式的構(gòu)建與實踐[J];新疆社會科學(xué);2010年01期

6 孫久文;李愛民;彭芳梅;趙霄偉;;長三角地區(qū)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)與制造業(yè)共生發(fā)展研究[J];南京社會科學(xué);2010年08期

7 毛攀云;;影視湘西:想象共同體及其與湘西旅游的共生發(fā)展[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)地理;2013年05期

8 譚曉嵐;論以人為本開發(fā)海洋實現(xiàn)人與海洋和諧共生發(fā)展——“海上山東”戰(zhàn)略實施中存在的問題及對策研究[J];海洋開發(fā)與管理;2005年05期

9 黃立峰;劉建湘;;中部地區(qū)高職院校校企合作共生發(fā)展機(jī)制研究[J];長沙民政職業(yè)技術(shù)學(xué)院學(xué)報;2012年03期

10 章海榮;;雙重主客體的建立——文化與經(jīng)濟(jì)在旅游業(yè)中共生發(fā)展理論初探[J];貴州民族學(xué)院學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);1993年02期

相關(guān)重要報紙文章 前4條

1 浙江省發(fā)展和改革研究所所長 卓勇良;抓住共生發(fā)展新機(jī)遇[N];浙江日報;2014年

2 王開書;國企民企共生發(fā)展[N];中國航空報;2012年

3 記者 唐婷 田甜;攜手共進(jìn) 共生發(fā)展[N];湖南日報;2012年

4 本報記者 陳玲;實現(xiàn)“三農(nóng)”與企業(yè)共生發(fā)展[N];中國縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)報;2013年

，

本文編號：2330976