【摘要】："一帶一路"背景下,中國與中東歐國家之間的貿(mào)易發(fā)展迅速,中東歐成為中國"陸上絲綢之路"建設(shè)中非常重要的貿(mào)易伙伴。該文選取了中國與22個國家2007年至2014年的貿(mào)易面板數(shù)據(jù),運用隨機前沿引力模型著重分析了中國與中東歐各國的貿(mào)易效率與貿(mào)易潛力。結(jié)果表明:中國與中東歐各國的貿(mào)易效率總體較低,在0.3-0.5之間波動。未來,雙邊貿(mào)易潛力及中國對中東歐的單向出口潛力都較大。從中國與中東歐貿(mào)易效率的影響因素來看,GDP、雙方人口、雙方人均收入差異、"一帶一路"策略等因素促進(jìn)雙邊貿(mào)易,距離、關(guān)稅水平、歐盟一體化等因素阻礙雙邊貿(mào)易。未來,應(yīng)從"一帶一路"建設(shè)、貿(mào)易便利化、優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè)合作等方面著手,進(jìn)一步提高雙邊貿(mào)易效率,釋放貿(mào)易潛力。
[Abstract]:Under the background of Belt and Road, the trade between China and Central and Eastern European countries has developed rapidly, and Central and Eastern Europe has become a very important trade partner in the construction of China's "land Silk Road". In this paper, the trade panel data of China and 22 countries from 2007 to 2014 are selected, and the trade efficiency and trade potential between China and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are analyzed by using the stochastic frontier gravity model. The results show that the trade efficiency between China and Central and Eastern European countries is generally low, fluctuating between 0.3 and 0.5. In the future, bilateral trade potential and China's one-way export potential to Central and Eastern Europe are great. From the point of view of the influence factors of trade efficiency between China and Central and Eastern Europe, the population of GDP, and the difference of income per capita of both sides, the strategy of "Belt and Road" and other factors to promote bilateral trade, distance, tariff level, European Union integration and other factors hinder bilateral trade. In the future, we should further improve bilateral trade efficiency and release trade potential from the aspects of "Belt and Road" construction, trade facilitation and superior industrial cooperation.
【作者單位】： 青島理工大學(xué)經(jīng)貿(mào)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金一般項目“匯率不對稱變動、異質(zhì)性傳導(dǎo)與中國對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)研究”(項目編號:16BJL087) 山東省名校工程專業(yè)建設(shè)與教學(xué)改革項目“國際經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易專業(yè)與職業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)相銜接的課程與教學(xué)內(nèi)容體系探索”(項目編號:HY9080) 青島理工大學(xué)校人文社科專項基金“中國與拉美雙邊貿(mào)易的生態(tài)成本與利益研究”(項目編號:203000100070005-c2014-205)的資助
【分類號】：F752.7

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