【摘要】：共建"一帶一路"是中國(guó)向周邊國(guó)家發(fā)出的倡議,其中貿(mào)易暢通是共建"一帶一路"的重點(diǎn)內(nèi)容。在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑,貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義抬頭的大環(huán)境下,中國(guó)與"一帶一路"沿線國(guó)家的貿(mào)易不斷增長(zhǎng)且潛力巨大,擴(kuò)大貿(mào)易合作對(duì)穩(wěn)定沿線國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有著重要意義。"一帶一路"沿線不少發(fā)展中國(guó)家發(fā)展水平相對(duì)較低,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施條件較差。伴隨這些國(guó)家的開(kāi)放和發(fā)展,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施不足對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和貿(mào)易開(kāi)展的瓶頸效應(yīng)顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)。除此之外,中國(guó)與許多國(guó)家之間仍有各種貿(mào)易壁壘存在,不便于擴(kuò)大交往,因此,如何使貿(mào)易、投資更加便利,構(gòu)建"一帶一路"良好的合作環(huán)境,將這塊"蛋糕"做大做好,是"一帶一路"建設(shè)中各國(guó)面對(duì)的共同問(wèn)題。中國(guó)強(qiáng)調(diào)設(shè)施聯(lián)通是"一帶一路"建設(shè)的優(yōu)先領(lǐng)域,并倡導(dǎo)各國(guó)應(yīng)該加強(qiáng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)規(guī)劃的對(duì)接,共同推進(jìn)沿線國(guó)家交通、能源、信息建設(shè),逐步形成區(qū)域內(nèi)互聯(lián)互通的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施網(wǎng)絡(luò)。本文通過(guò)已有的文獻(xiàn)研究基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)對(duì)貿(mào)易的影響機(jī)制�；A(chǔ)設(shè)施作為一項(xiàng)投資短期內(nèi)可以擴(kuò)大需求,起到穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用,從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看可以提高社會(huì)生產(chǎn)效率,通過(guò)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)、增加國(guó)民收入影響貿(mào)易需求。基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施對(duì)企業(yè)生產(chǎn)、經(jīng)營(yíng)具有外部性,可以提高企業(yè)生產(chǎn)率,降低企業(yè)固定成本、變動(dòng)成本和交易成本,因此基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施會(huì)通過(guò)影響企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)來(lái)影響企業(yè)的決策。本文將基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施變量納入Melitz的異質(zhì)性模型框架中,證明了基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施對(duì)于企業(yè)開(kāi)展貿(mào)易的促進(jìn)作用。由于每一類(lèi)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施包含的內(nèi)容非常豐富,而且每個(gè)國(guó)家的狀況又差異很大,因此用單一的指標(biāo)來(lái)評(píng)估一國(guó)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施狀況不夠科學(xué)。本文利用可得的數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建了包含多維度指標(biāo)信息的綜合指數(shù)來(lái)評(píng)估"一帶一路"沿線國(guó)家的各項(xiàng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施水平。本文在構(gòu)建基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施指數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上,建立2002-2013年面板數(shù)據(jù),通過(guò)計(jì)量實(shí)證,檢驗(yàn)了"一帶一路"沿線國(guó)家基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施對(duì)中國(guó)出口的影響,得出以下結(jié)論:交通、能源、信息三類(lèi)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施對(duì)中國(guó)出口貿(mào)易的影響均顯著為正,其中交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施影響最大;簽訂自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定、建立自由貿(mào)易區(qū)可以降低貿(mào)易壁壘,促進(jìn)中國(guó)的出口;對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)于貿(mào)易的促進(jìn)效應(yīng)要大于替代效應(yīng),對(duì)外工程承包也可以拉動(dòng)貿(mào)易出口;"一帶一路"沿線一些國(guó)家存在地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn),中國(guó)更傾向與政治穩(wěn)定的國(guó)家進(jìn)行貿(mào)易。
[Abstract]:Belt and Road is an initiative of China to neighboring countries, among which smooth trade is the key content. Under the global economic downturn and the rise of trade protectionism, trade between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" has been growing and has great potential. Expanding trade cooperation is of great significance to stabilize the economic growth of the countries along the route. " Many developing countries along Belt and Road have a relatively low level of development and poor infrastructure. With the opening up and development of these countries, the bottleneck effect of inadequate infrastructure on economic development and trade is evident. In addition, there are still various trade barriers between China and many countries, which are not conducive to expanding exchanges. Therefore, how to make trade and investment more convenient, to build a good cooperative environment for "Belt and Road", and to make this "cake" bigger and better, It is a common problem faced by all countries in the construction of Belt and Road. China emphasizes that facility connectivity is a priority area for "Belt and Road" construction, and advocates that countries should strengthen the docking of infrastructure construction plans and jointly promote transportation, energy, and information construction in the countries along the route. The infrastructure network of regional interconnection is gradually formed. This paper studies the influence mechanism of infrastructure construction on trade through the existing literature. Infrastructure, as an investment, can expand demand and stabilize economic growth in the short term. In the long run, it can improve the efficiency of social production and influence trade demand by promoting long-term economic growth and increasing national income. Infrastructure has externality to enterprise production and operation, which can improve productivity, reduce firm fixed cost, variable cost and transaction cost. Therefore, infrastructure will influence enterprise's decision by influencing enterprise's production function. In this paper, the infrastructure variables are incorporated into the heterogeneity model of Melitz, which proves the facilitating effect of infrastructure on enterprises' trade. Because each type of infrastructure contains a great deal of content and the situation of each country varies greatly, it is not scientific to use a single indicator to assess the state of a country's infrastructure. Based on the available data, this paper constructs a comprehensive index including multi-dimensional index information to evaluate the infrastructure level of the countries along "Belt and Road". Based on the construction of infrastructure index, this paper establishes the panel data from 2002 to 2013, tests the impact of infrastructure on China's exports by econometric evidence, and draws the following conclusions: transportation, energy, The impact of the three kinds of information infrastructure on China's export trade is significant positive, among which the transport infrastructure has the greatest impact, and the signing of free trade agreements and the establishment of free trade zones can reduce trade barriers and promote China's exports. The promotion effect of foreign direct investment to trade is greater than the substitution effect, and foreign project contracting can also stimulate the export of trade. Some countries along "Belt and Road" have geopolitical risks, and China tends to trade with countries with political stability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F752.62
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本文編號(hào)：2255524