【摘要】：基于各種引力模型的貿(mào)易潛力以及相應(yīng)的貿(mào)易效率的估算方法存在諸多不足,如測算貿(mào)易潛力時考慮實(shí)際的各種貿(mào)易阻力因素(甚至包括貿(mào)易促進(jìn)因素)"平均化"作用、模型復(fù)雜計(jì)算困難、國際比較性差等。在綜合考慮貿(mào)易吸引力、貿(mào)易推力和貿(mào)易阻力的APR模型分析框架下,貿(mào)易吸引力決定經(jīng)濟(jì)體間的貿(mào)易潛力即理論貿(mào)易量,貿(mào)易推力和貿(mào)易阻力決定經(jīng)濟(jì)體間的實(shí)際貿(mào)易量,由此測算的貿(mào)易效率經(jīng)濟(jì)意義明確、計(jì)算簡單、且具有更好的國際比較性。理論貿(mào)易量的推算發(fā)現(xiàn),小規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)體的對外貿(mào)易依存度比大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)體的更高,并更容易形成貿(mào)易效率大于1.0的"超貿(mào)易"。根據(jù)2015年數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算的貿(mào)易效率表明:(1)一帶一路國家對中國的出口效率平均為0.1326,只有它們對世界平
[Abstract]:The trade potential based on various gravity models and the corresponding estimation methods of trade efficiency have many shortcomings, such as taking into account the "average" effect of various actual trade resistance factors (even trade promotion factors) when calculating trade potential. The model is difficult to calculate and the international comparison is poor. Under the analytical framework of APR model considering trade attraction, trade thrust and trade resistance, trade attractiveness determines the potential of trade among economies, that is, theoretical trade volume, trade thrust and trade resistance determine the actual trade volume among economies. The economic significance of trade efficiency is clear, the calculation is simple, and it has better international comparison. The theoretical calculation of trade volume shows that the dependence on foreign trade of small economies is higher than that of large economies, and it is easier to form "super trade" with trade efficiency greater than 1.0. Trade efficiency calculated on the basis of 2015 data shows: (1) the average efficiency of Belt and Road's exports to China is 0.1326, and only they are equal to the world.
【作者單位】： 重慶郵電大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;重慶郵電大學(xué)教務(wù)處;
【基金】：重慶郵電大學(xué)社會科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(2016KZD11)
【分類號】：F752
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本文編號：2229366