發(fā)布時間：2018-05-15 22:45

  本文選題：西北地區(qū) + 社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性��； 參考：《新疆大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在國家推進西部大開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略與“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略的大環(huán)境下,促使西北地區(qū)社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展迅速提高,同時也存在著區(qū)域經(jīng)濟水平不平衡現(xiàn)狀。這種不平衡嚴重影響了區(qū)域的社會經(jīng)濟健康發(fā)展與安全穩(wěn)定,通過構(gòu)建社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性綜合評價模型能夠量化分析其社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展程度,并且結(jié)合社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性空間分布圖,能夠加強國家宏觀經(jīng)濟調(diào)控,促使西北地區(qū)社會經(jīng)濟健康持續(xù)發(fā)展。本文利用2004-2013年社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展指標和燈光指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù),建立社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性評價體系,運用主成分分析方法、Geoda和GIS空間分析等多種手段,評價近10年來西北地區(qū)各省社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,且討論縣域社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性空間分布,提供相應(yīng)的改善建議。主要研究成果如下:首先,從各省的社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性指數(shù)得分來看,西北地區(qū)各省社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展整體上表現(xiàn)出地級市水平大于縣級市。近10年來,陜西省社會經(jīng)濟實力居西北地區(qū)首位,且整體呈上升趨勢,甘肅省、青海省和寧夏回族自治區(qū)的社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平較低,新疆北疆社會經(jīng)濟程度總體大于南疆。其次,從社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性時間序列演變上來看,地級市和縣級區(qū)域極差從2004年17.317、6.504,到2013年的28.408、11.095,表示西北地區(qū)社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性極化現(xiàn)象增強。近10年相對差異變化情況,顯示縣級區(qū)域的社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性差異性增大,地級市則表現(xiàn)較為平穩(wěn)。再次,從社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性空間格局上考慮,(1)2004年到2013年相對變化分析可知,西北地區(qū)縣域社會經(jīng)濟水平總體呈上升趨勢。(2)將脆弱性指數(shù)得分按標準差等級劃分,較低以下社會經(jīng)濟水平研究單元占整個研究區(qū)的85%,中等占比為10%,較高和高占比為5%,可以看出區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟水平差異性顯著,呈金字塔結(jié)構(gòu)。(3)在空間分布上,西北地區(qū)社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展以西安、蘭州、烏魯木齊為核心,呈“三核”形態(tài)結(jié)構(gòu),并對周邊區(qū)域有較大的正向輻射效應(yīng)和極化效應(yīng)。(4)莫蘭指數(shù)從2004年的0.046到2013年的0.202,呈上升趨勢,縣域社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性聚集現(xiàn)象越來越明顯。莫蘭指數(shù)散點圖反映了近10年來四種空間類型空間分布上有所變化,但縣域間的社會經(jīng)濟相互聯(lián)系還是相對較差,低低區(qū)域占整個研究單元的47%以上,西北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長緩慢。然后,從西北地區(qū)社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性類型區(qū)劃分來看:西北地區(qū)社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性LISA圖和熱冷點區(qū)圖,可知社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平較高的地區(qū)主要以經(jīng)濟區(qū)、省會城市、特殊資源城市為中心分布,而社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平相對緩慢的地區(qū)則主要集中新疆西南部、青海和甘肅的大部分地區(qū),具有顯著的聚集現(xiàn)象,且多數(shù)長期保持穩(wěn)定。最后,本文提出從國家引導(dǎo)政策和經(jīng)濟區(qū)位優(yōu)勢、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),促進產(chǎn)業(yè)升級與整合、加強基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、提高區(qū)域人口資本和完善保護生態(tài)環(huán)境政策方面,改善西北地區(qū)社會經(jīng)濟脆弱性提供參考建議。
[Abstract]:Under the circumstances of the national strategy of promoting the development of the western region and the strategy of "Belt and Road", the social and economic development in the northwest region has been promoted rapidly, and at the same time, there is an unbalanced situation of the regional economic level. This imbalance has seriously affected the healthy development of social economy and safety and stability of the region. By constructing a comprehensive evaluation model of social and economic vulnerability, the degree of social and economic development can be quantitatively analyzed, and the spatial distribution map of social and economic vulnerability can be combined. Can strengthen the national macroeconomic regulation and control, promote the northwest region social and economic healthy and sustainable development. Based on the data of social and economic development index and light index from 2004 to 2013, this paper sets up a social and economic vulnerability assessment system, and uses principal component analysis (PCA) and GIS spatial analysis to evaluate the social and economic development of provinces in Northwest China in the past 10 years. The spatial distribution of social and economic vulnerability in county area is discussed, and corresponding suggestions for improvement are provided. The main research results are as follows: firstly, from the score of socio-economic vulnerability index, the social and economic development of northwest provinces shows that the level of prefecture-level cities is higher than that of county-level cities. In the last 10 years, the social and economic strength of Shaanxi Province ranks first in the Northwest region, and the overall trend is rising. The level of social and economic development in Gansu Province, Qinghai Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous region is relatively low, and the social and economic level in Northern Xinjiang is generally higher than that in South Xinjiang. Secondly, from the point of view of the evolution of the time series of social and economic vulnerability, the regional difference between prefecture-level cities and county-level regions ranged from 17.3176.504 in 2004 to 28.408 (11.095) in 2013, indicating that the polarization of socio-economic vulnerability in Northwest China was enhanced. The change of relative difference in recent 10 years shows that the difference of social and economic vulnerability of county-level regions is increasing, while that of prefecture-level cities is relatively stable. Thirdly, considering the spatial pattern of social and economic vulnerability, the analysis of relative changes from 2004 to 2013 shows that the overall social and economic level of counties in Northwest China shows an upward trend. (2) the vulnerability index score is classified by standard deviation grade. The lower and lower socio-economic level research units account for 85% of the whole research area, the middle proportion is 10%, and the higher and higher share ratio is 5%. It can be seen that the difference of the regional social and economic level is significant, with a pyramid structure. The social and economic development in northwest China is characterized by the core of Xi'an, Lanzhou and Urumqi, with a "three-nucleus" structure and a larger positive radiation effect and polarization effect on the surrounding region.) the Moran index increases from 0.046 in 2004 to 0.202 in 2013. The phenomenon of social and economic fragility aggregation in county area is more and more obvious. Moran index scatter plot shows that the spatial distribution of the four spatial types has changed in the past 10 years, but the social and economic relationship among counties is still relatively poor, the low region accounts for more than 47% of the whole research unit, and the economic growth in the northwest region is slow. Then, according to the classification of social and economic vulnerability in Northwest China, the LISA map of social and economic vulnerability and the map of hot and cold zone show that the regions with higher level of social and economic development are mainly economic zones and provincial capitals. The special resource cities are the center of distribution, while the areas with relatively slow social and economic development level are mainly concentrated in southwest Xinjiang, Qinghai and most areas of Gansu Province, with remarkable aggregation phenomenon, and most of them remain stable for a long time. Finally, this paper proposes to optimize industrial structure, promote industrial upgrading and integration, strengthen infrastructure construction, improve regional population capital and improve ecological environment protection policy from national guiding policies and economic location advantages. To improve the social and economic vulnerability of the northwest region to provide reference suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F127

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