本文選題：項目風險　切入點：風險識別　出處：《山東大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著中國國際影響力和競爭力的不斷增加以及"走出去"、"一帶一路"等國家戰(zhàn)略的提出,我國的國際工程項目承包業(yè)務得到了飛速發(fā)展。近年來,非洲地區(qū)各個國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展十分迅速,對于能源、交通、水電等基礎設施有著很大需求,越來越多的中國企業(yè)選擇承接非洲的工程項目。僅2016年一年,中國企業(yè)在非洲承包工程項目的合同額就接近700億美元。隨著中非之間合作的日益深化,非洲已經(jīng)成為了中國對外承包的主要市場。由于非洲特殊的政治、經(jīng)濟、自然環(huán)境以及復雜的歷史文化,項目在實施過程中可能遇到比其他國際工程項目更多的風險,因此對風險的有效管理在中非國際工程項目中十分關鍵。目前,我國企業(yè)在已經(jīng)逐漸重視起對中非項目風險的管控,但大多仍停留在對風險因素本身的權(quán)重或風險水平的評價上,對于風險之間的莠聯(lián)關系和傳導路徑的研究還十分匱乏。風險傳導關系是對于風險產(chǎn)生和傳播的闡釋,對于風險的預測和防范具有重要的作用,是風險管理中十分重要的依據(jù)。本文針對中非國際工程項目各個風險因素之間的傳導關系進行研究,主要內(nèi)容包括以下三個部分:第一部分內(nèi)容包括本文的第1章和第2章,主要分析我國中非國際工程項目的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及其在實踐、理論研究方面還存在的問題,在此基礎上提出了本文的研究問題,即如何識別中非國際工程項目風險以及探究風險因素之間的傳導關系。針對以上研究問題,對現(xiàn)有的相關文獻進行了梳理,為后續(xù)研究提供了理論依據(jù)與支持。第二部分為文章重點,包括本文第3章和第4章,主要內(nèi)容是識別中非國際工程項目存在風險及構(gòu)建風險傳導關系模型。第一,基于對以往文獻的篩選和總結(jié),對一般國際工程項目包含的風險因素進行梳理;第二,結(jié)合非洲環(huán)境特點及中國企業(yè)在非洲工程項目面臨問題,通過德爾菲法對中非國際工程項目風險進行了再次識別;第三,基于解釋結(jié)構(gòu)模型法分析風險因素之間的傳導關系和風險層次,并最終構(gòu)建風險傳導解釋結(jié)構(gòu)模型。第三部分內(nèi)容包括本文的第5章和第6章,根據(jù)所構(gòu)建的風險傳導關系模型,對風險類型進行劃分,并結(jié)合非洲具體情況提出風險管理策略,最后對文章結(jié)論進行了總結(jié),提出了研究的不足之處以及對后續(xù)研究的思考。通過上述三個部分內(nèi)容的研究,本文對中非國際工程項目風險因素傳導關系進行了探討,證明了中非國際工程項目風險之間有明確的關聯(lián)關系與傳導路徑,并根據(jù)風險模型提出了相應的風險管理對策,彌補了現(xiàn)有風險分析方法僅通過風險權(quán)重對風險進行管理的缺陷。本研究能夠為中非國際工程項目風險管理提供新的研究思路,為項目管理者對此類項目風險的評估、分析和管控提供參考。
[Abstract]:With the continuous increase of China's international influence and competitiveness, as well as the "going out" and "Belt and Road" and other national strategies, China's international project contracting business has been rapidly developed in recent years. The economies of various countries in Africa are developing very rapidly, and there is a great demand for energy, transportation, hydropower and other infrastructure facilities. More and more Chinese enterprises choose to undertake engineering projects in Africa. In 2016, only one year, With the deepening cooperation between China and Africa, Africa has become the main market for Chinese foreign contracting. Due to the special politics and economy of Africa, Because of the natural environment and the complex history and culture, the project may encounter more risks than other international engineering projects, so the effective management of the risk is very important in the China-Africa international engineering project. Chinese enterprises have paid more and more attention to the control of project risk in Central Africa, but most of them still remain in the evaluation of the weight of risk factors themselves or the level of risk. The study of the relationship between risks and the transmission path is still very scarce. The risk conduction relation is the interpretation of risk generation and transmission, and plays an important role in risk prediction and prevention. It is a very important basis in risk management. This paper studies the conduction relationship between various risk factors of China-Africa international engineering projects. The main contents include the following three parts: the first part includes chapter 1 and chapter 2 of this paper. Based on the analysis of the current situation and the problems in practice and theoretical research of China's non-African international engineering projects, the paper puts forward the research problems in this paper. That is, how to identify the non-international project risk and explore the transmission relationship between risk factors. The second part is the focus of the article, including the third and fourth chapters, the main content is to identify the non-international project risk and build the risk conduction relationship model. Based on the screening and summing up of the previous literatures, this paper combs the risk factors contained in general international engineering projects. Secondly, combining the characteristics of African environment and the problems faced by Chinese enterprises in African engineering projects, The risk of China-Africa international engineering project is recognized again by Delphi method. Thirdly, based on the method of explanatory structure model, the conduction relationship and risk level between risk factors are analyzed. The third part includes chapter 5 and chapter 6 of this paper, according to the risk conduction relationship model, the risk types are divided. And put forward the risk management strategy according to the specific situation in Africa, finally summarize the conclusion of the article, put forward the deficiency of the research and the thinking of the follow-up research. Through the research of the above three parts, This paper probes into the transmission relationship of risk factors between China and Africa international engineering projects, proves that there is a clear correlation relationship and conduction path between the risks of China and Africa international engineering projects, and puts forward the corresponding risk management countermeasures according to the risk model. This research can provide a new research idea for the risk management of international engineering projects in China and Africa, and provide a new way for project managers to evaluate the risk of such projects. Analysis and management to provide reference.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.68

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