【摘要】：民盟和軍政府的博弈,是緬甸政治民主化的動(dòng)力。1988年緬甸國內(nèi)局勢(shì)動(dòng)蕩,軍政府執(zhí)政的合法性受到質(zhì)疑,民盟成為政治民主最好的“代言人”,緬甸政治民主化重新啟動(dòng)。經(jīng)過長達(dá)二十幾年的博弈,2016年民盟成員吳廷覺出任總統(tǒng),標(biāo)志著緬甸政治民主化取得了階段性成果。本文以1988-2016年緬甸政治民主化進(jìn)程中民盟和軍政府博弈為研究對(duì)象,通過運(yùn)用政治博弈相關(guān)理論分析民盟和軍政府博弈的策略與過程,揭示民盟和軍政府博弈對(duì)緬甸政治民主化的歷史影響。第一章分析了1990年前民盟和軍政府的博弈,并對(duì)雙方使用的策略和博弈過程進(jìn)行了論述;1990年后雙方博弈的焦點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)向了“1990年選舉合法性”的問題,民盟要求的“1990年選舉的合法性”未能得到軍政府的承認(rèn)。但是,緬甸政治有了民主化的跡象,緬甸政治民主化重新啟動(dòng);第二章分析了2003-2015年民盟和軍政府的博弈。在雙方的博弈過程中,緬甸政治民主化不斷發(fā)展。在“制憲問題”上民盟也沒有獲得更多憲法規(guī)定的權(quán)利,軍政府則在憲法中塞進(jìn)了更多符合軍人自身的利益。2008年憲法通過后,雙方在“憲政體制”內(nèi)圍繞“2010年選舉”和“修憲”問題展開博弈,民盟都以失敗告終。但是,緬甸政治的民主化因素顯著增多,政治民主化有了較大的發(fā)展。第三章論述民盟和軍政府在“2015年選舉”中的博弈及相互妥協(xié),對(duì)緬甸政治轉(zhuǎn)型中民盟和軍政府相互妥協(xié)的原因以及民盟最后獲勝的原因作了分析。民盟和軍政府的妥協(xié),是緬甸政治轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵因素,在民盟和軍政府的妥協(xié)過程中,緬甸政治民主化基本完成。第四章分析了民盟和軍政府博弈的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)及對(duì)緬甸政治民主化的啟示。對(duì)緬甸未來政治走向和民盟執(zhí)政所面臨的問題做了簡要分析。
[Abstract]:The game between the NLD and the junta is the driving force of Myanmar's political democratization. In 1988, the internal situation in Myanmar was turbulent, the legitimacy of the junta's ruling was questioned, the NLD became the best "spokesman" of political democracy, and the political democratization of Myanmar was restarted. After more than two decades of gaming, NLD member Wu Tingjue became president in 2016, marking the achievement of political democratization in Myanmar. This paper takes the game between NLD and junta in the process of political democratization in Myanmar from 1988 to 2016 as the research object, and analyzes the strategy and process of the game between NLD and junta by using the relevant theory of political game. It reveals the historical influence of the game between NLD and junta on political democratization in Myanmar. The first chapter analyzes the game between NLD and junta before 1990, and discusses the tactics and game process used by both sides, and the focus of the game turns to the issue of "legitimacy of 1990 election" after 1990. The NLD's demand for "legitimacy of the 1990 elections" has not been recognized by the junta. However, there are signs of democratization in Myanmar, which is restarted. Chapter two analyzes the game between NLD and junta from 2003 to 2015. In the process of the game between the two sides, political democratization in Myanmar has been developing continuously. The NLD has also failed to gain more constitutional rights on the "constitutional issue," and the military junta has added more to the military's own interests. After the 2008 Constitution was passed, Both sides in the "constitutional system" around the "2010 election" and "constitutional amendment" game, the Democratic League ended in failure. However, Myanmar's political democratization factors have increased significantly, and political democratization has made great progress. The third chapter discusses the game and mutual compromise between NLD and junta in the "2015 election", and analyzes the reasons why the NLD and the junta compromise each other in the political transition of Myanmar and the reason why the NLD wins in the end. The compromise between NLD and junta is a key factor in Myanmar's political transition. In the process of compromise between NLD and junta, political democratization in Myanmar is basically completed. Chapter four analyzes the experience and lessons of the game between NLD and junta and its enlightenment to Myanmar's political democratization. This paper briefly analyzes the future political trend of Myanmar and the problems faced by NLD in power.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：K337.5

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