本文選題：兩伊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng) + 經(jīng)濟(jì)影響��； 參考：《西南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：從1980年9月22日至1988年8月20日這為期近8年的兩伊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng),就其破壞的規(guī)模和對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響而言,這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)是第二次世界大戰(zhàn)以來(lái)最具毀滅性的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)之一,給伊朗和伊拉克兩國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了災(zāi)難性的后果。由于戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的爆發(fā),交戰(zhàn)雙方將大量財(cái)富消耗在其上,減少了在國(guó)家發(fā)展計(jì)劃上的投入,其所造成的機(jī)會(huì)成本比起戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)所造成的直接經(jīng)濟(jì)破壞是不可低估的。本文主要分為三個(gè)章節(jié)對(duì)兩伊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響進(jìn)行論述。第一章為伊朗部分,第二章為伊拉克部分,這兩章都分別從石油部門、工業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)、人力資源與人民生活水平、軍事化程度以及戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)造成經(jīng)濟(jì)消耗以及額外的機(jī)會(huì)成本等幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行論述。最后一章總結(jié)了兩伊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)對(duì)交戰(zhàn)雙方造成的總的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失及其嚴(yán)重后果,以及戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的外溢性。大體上,兩伊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)對(duì)雙方造成的共同經(jīng)濟(jì)后果主要有以下幾方面：1、財(cái)富消耗,人力資源和非人力資源的巨大破壞導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)力水平的下降和外匯儲(chǔ)備的流失；2、由于和平時(shí)期經(jīng)濟(jì)向戰(zhàn)時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)變,國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)高度軍事化,犧牲了國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值的潛在產(chǎn)出,并且資源不能得到最有效的使用或者分配到最有效的地方,導(dǎo)致成本的增加和效率的下降；3、人才外流與大規(guī)模的征兵導(dǎo)致人力資源質(zhì)量下降。戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)期間雙方都空前的向中學(xué)和大學(xué)在校生征召入伍,并且許多學(xué)者和專家逃離動(dòng)亂的祖國(guó)到西方國(guó)家；4、由于國(guó)內(nèi)工業(yè)生產(chǎn)不足,進(jìn)口依賴增加,黑市貿(mào)易增多,國(guó)內(nèi)的通貨膨脹上升,人民生活水平下降；5、農(nóng)業(yè)部門的破壞導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)難以滿足日益增長(zhǎng)的人口需求,雙方都處于一種對(duì)外界食物的嚴(yán)重依賴狀態(tài)；6、軍費(fèi)開支的增加加重了雙方的國(guó)防負(fù)擔(dān)；7、戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的爆發(fā)及其長(zhǎng)期性導(dǎo)致雙方無(wú)法正常執(zhí)行經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展規(guī)劃,錯(cuò)過(guò)了糾正經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中所出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題的機(jī)會(huì),并使得原本的經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題進(jìn)一步惡化。如雙方都未能實(shí)現(xiàn)出口的多樣化,反而越來(lái)越依賴石油部門所賺取的外匯收入。這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)對(duì)雙方造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響也不盡相同：1、就基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施破壞程度而言,伊朗要嚴(yán)重于伊拉克；2、在人力資源破壞程度方面,伊朗在這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中的人員死傷數(shù)量要多于伊拉克,但伊拉克由于人口數(shù)量與征兵需求的矛盾,不得不大量從周邊國(guó)家引進(jìn)外來(lái)工,僑匯增加了伊拉克的國(guó)際收支平衡負(fù)擔(dān)；3、國(guó)內(nèi)工業(yè)生產(chǎn)方面,伊朗雖然嚴(yán)重依賴于外界的非軍事產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口,但由于伊朗政府實(shí)行自力更生、自給自足的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策,國(guó)內(nèi)的小手工作坊由于戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)需求而活躍起來(lái),戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)前期,由于薩達(dá)姆既要“槍支”也要“黃油”的政策,國(guó)內(nèi)工業(yè)生產(chǎn)受戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的影響較小,但隨著外匯儲(chǔ)備的枯竭,伊拉克越來(lái)越依賴于外界的非軍事產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口,尤其是消費(fèi)品進(jìn)口；4、農(nóng)業(yè)方面,伊朗的農(nóng)業(yè)是所有經(jīng)濟(jì)部門中表現(xiàn)相對(duì)最好的一個(gè),糧食產(chǎn)品不斷增加,但與伊拉克一樣,仍無(wú)法滿足日益增長(zhǎng)的人口需求,而伊拉克的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)狀況則不斷地惡化,傳統(tǒng)的椰棗等非能源出口不斷減少,對(duì)外界的糧食需求不斷增加；5、就機(jī)會(huì)成本而言,伊朗由于這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)錯(cuò)失了糾正經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中的問(wèn)題的機(jī)會(huì),而伊拉克則是中斷了經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展的寶貴時(shí)間,造成了財(cái)富的巨大浪費(fèi)。
[Abstract]:From September 22, 1980 to August 20, 1988, the Iraq war, which lasted for nearly 8 years, was one of the most devastating wars since the Second World War, with the scale of its destruction and the impact on the economy. It brought disastrous consequences to the economy of both Iran and Iraq. There are three chapters on the economic impact of the two Iraq wars. The first chapter is the Iran part, the second chapter is the Iraqi part, and the two chapters are all respectively. From the oil sector, industry, agriculture, human resources and the living standard of the people, the degree of militarization and the economic consumption as well as the additional opportunity cost of war, the last chapter summarizes the total economic losses and the serious consequences of the Iraq war on the warring parties, as well as the economic impact of the war. In general, the common economic consequences of the Iran Iraq war on both sides mainly have the following aspects: 1, the loss of the productivity level and the loss of foreign exchange reserves by the wealth consumption, the great destruction of human resources and non human resources; and 2, the high militarization of the national economy, the high militarization of the national economy, and the sacrifice of the national economy as a result of the peaceful period of the economy. The potential output of gross national product (GNP), and the uneffective use or distribution of resources to the most effective places, resulted in increased cost and reduced efficiency; 3, human resource outflow and large-scale recruitment led to a decline in the quality of human resources. Many scholars and experts fled the troubled country to the western countries; 4, because of the shortage of domestic industrial production, the increase of import dependence, the increase in the black market trade, the rising inflation in the country, the decline of the living standard of the people, and the destruction of the agricultural sector, which resulted in the difficulty of meeting the growing demand of the population, and both sides were in a kind of food for the outside world. 6, the increase of military expenditure aggravated the burden of defense on both sides; 7, the outbreak of the war and its long-term nature resulted in the failure of both sides to carry out the economic development plan normally, missed the opportunity to correct the problems in the economic development process, and made the original economic problems further worsened. For example, both sides failed to achieve export. Diversification, instead, is increasingly dependent on the foreign exchange earnings earned by the oil sector. The economic impact of this war on both sides is different: 1, Iran is serious in Iraq as far as the extent of infrastructure damage is concerned; 2, in terms of the extent of human resource destruction, the number of deaths and injuries in this war is more than in Iraq, but in the extent of the destruction of human resources, the number of casualties in this war is more than Iraq, Because of the contradiction between the population and the demand for military conscription, Iraq has to import a large number of foreign workers from the surrounding countries, and remittances have increased the balance of balance of payments for Iraq. 3, in the field of domestic industrial production, Iran is heavily dependent on the import of non military products from the outside world, but because the government of Iran is self reliant and self-sufficient Economic policy, the domestic small hand workshops are active because of the demand for war. In the early period of the war, because of Sadam's policy of "gun" and "butter", domestic industrial production was less affected by the war, but with the exhaustion of foreign exchange reserves, Iraq became more and more dependent on the import of non military products from the outside world, especially the consumer goods. 4, in agriculture, agriculture in Iran is the best in all sectors of the economy, and food products are increasing, but as in Iraq, it is still unable to meet the growing demand for population, while Iraq's agricultural production continues to deteriorate, the non energy exports such as traditional dates are decreasing, and the food needs for the outside world. 5, in terms of opportunity cost, Iran has missed the opportunity to correct problems in the process of economic development because of this war, while Iraq is a precious time to disrupt the rapid economic development and cause a huge waste of wealth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：K153

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