特朗普時代的中美潛在沖突:全球化的隱患
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-06 19:15
【摘要】：中美經(jīng)濟的雙向關(guān)系類似于心理學(xué)中"相互依賴"的概念。這種關(guān)系始自毛澤東與尼克松的首次接觸,鞏固于雙方在各自艱難的發(fā)展歷程中生發(fā)出的相互需要感。未來,這種關(guān)系很可能也將如過去幾十年一般,繼續(xù)發(fā)揮深刻作用。離開中國,美國的繁榮難以想象。中美關(guān)系并非特例,經(jīng)濟互賴的某些特征普遍存在于世界主要經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系中,這種關(guān)系也隱藏著破壞性基因。全球化的多邊特征已經(jīng)造成中美許多沖突,且還將繼續(xù)下去,因為全球化自有其弊端。理論過時不是全球化面臨的唯一危機,世界貿(mào)易近期趨勢也在不斷發(fā)出警告。隨著"美國第一"原則的提出,不少人相信中國很快將取代美國,成為全球貿(mào)易乃至全球經(jīng)濟的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。但事情沒有那么簡單,世界領(lǐng)袖的接力棒不會交接得如此順利。中國目前的首要任務(wù)是通過改革和新規(guī)解決國內(nèi)發(fā)展不平衡的問題,繞過這個階段而盲目尋求世界大國地位是嚴(yán)重的戰(zhàn)略錯誤。國內(nèi)實力決定國際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力,特朗普治下的美國正在重新認(rèn)識這個道理。
[Abstract]:The two-way economic relationship between China and the United States is similar to the concept of interdependence in psychology. This relationship began with the first contact between Mao Zedong and Nixon and consolidated the sense of mutual need developed by both sides during their difficult development. In the future, the relationship is likely to continue to play a profound role, as it has for decades. Without China, America's prosperity is unthinkable. The relationship between China and the United States is not an exception. Some characteristics of economic interdependence are common in the world's major economic and trade relations, which also contain destructive genes. The multilateral character of globalization has caused many conflicts between China and the United States, and will continue, because globalization has its own drawbacks. Antiquated theory is not the only crisis facing globalisation, and recent trends in world trade are warning. With the introduction of the "America first" principle, many people believe that China will soon replace the United States as a leader in global trade and even the global economy. But it is not that simple, and the baton of world leaders will not pass so smoothly. At present, China's primary task is to solve the imbalance of domestic development through reform and new regulations. It is a serious strategic mistake to bypass this stage and blindly seek the status of a world power. Domestic power determines international leadership, and Trump's America is rediscovering that.
【作者單位】： 美國耶魯大學(xué);北京大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)院;
【分類號】：D822.371.2
本文編號：2366520
[Abstract]:The two-way economic relationship between China and the United States is similar to the concept of interdependence in psychology. This relationship began with the first contact between Mao Zedong and Nixon and consolidated the sense of mutual need developed by both sides during their difficult development. In the future, the relationship is likely to continue to play a profound role, as it has for decades. Without China, America's prosperity is unthinkable. The relationship between China and the United States is not an exception. Some characteristics of economic interdependence are common in the world's major economic and trade relations, which also contain destructive genes. The multilateral character of globalization has caused many conflicts between China and the United States, and will continue, because globalization has its own drawbacks. Antiquated theory is not the only crisis facing globalisation, and recent trends in world trade are warning. With the introduction of the "America first" principle, many people believe that China will soon replace the United States as a leader in global trade and even the global economy. But it is not that simple, and the baton of world leaders will not pass so smoothly. At present, China's primary task is to solve the imbalance of domestic development through reform and new regulations. It is a serious strategic mistake to bypass this stage and blindly seek the status of a world power. Domestic power determines international leadership, and Trump's America is rediscovering that.
【作者單位】： 美國耶魯大學(xué);北京大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)院;
【分類號】：D822.371.2
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