【摘要】：信任是國家遵守行為的重要影響因素。信任指信任者關(guān)于被信任者傾向于相互合作,而不是利用信任者合作的信念。遵守是指國家行為與國際制度相關(guān)規(guī)定相一致的一種狀態(tài)。根據(jù)形成動(dòng)因,信任關(guān)系可以分為不同的類別：觀念性不信任/信任、戰(zhàn)略性不信任/信任。這些類別共同構(gòu)成信任光譜,預(yù)示著不同的信任關(guān)系和不同的不信任/信任程度。不同類型的信任關(guān)系對(duì)國家遵守行為產(chǎn)生不同影響。存在著觀念性不信任關(guān)系的國家之間處于零和狀態(tài),他們傾向于懷疑對(duì)方遵守承諾的可信性,而且這一猜疑可能會(huì)變成自我實(shí)現(xiàn)的預(yù)言。存在觀念性信任關(guān)系的國家擁有更多的共同利益,他們傾向于認(rèn)為對(duì)方將遵守承諾,關(guān)注外部環(huán)境對(duì)對(duì)方的不利影響,并共同努力消除這些影響。存在著戰(zhàn)略性不信任/信任的國家屬于非敵非友,他們根據(jù)具體的成本收益預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)方是否可信,進(jìn)而采取相應(yīng)的行為。 以信任關(guān)系為基礎(chǔ),本文將《不擴(kuò)散核武器條約》(NPT)的無核締約國分為三類：第一類,與美國存在著觀念性不信任的國家,如伊拉克、朝鮮、利比亞和伊朗等國。美國一直譴責(zé)這類國家違反NPT,并威脅將對(duì)其采取強(qiáng)硬措施。美國的態(tài)度引起了這些國家的抵抗,并有可能導(dǎo)致他們最終違反NPT。第二類,與美國存在著觀念性信任的國家,如以美國為核心的“西方自由安全共同體”成員。這類國家的安全受到美國保護(hù),他們發(fā)展先進(jìn)核技術(shù)的權(quán)利也得到充分保障,因此傾向于遵守NPT。不僅如此,他們還與美國一道防止核擴(kuò)散。第三類,前兩類之外的國家。這些國家可能與他國存在紛爭(zhēng),但其國家和政權(quán)安全不受嚴(yán)峻威脅。當(dāng)紛爭(zhēng)得到有效解決之后,這類國家傾向于遵守NPT。為了進(jìn)一步說明信任關(guān)系對(duì)NPT無核締約國核政策的影響,本文選取伊朗、日本和埃及作為案例研究對(duì)象,分析信任關(guān)系對(duì)他們核政策的影響。
[Abstract]:Trust is an important factor influencing the behavior of state compliance. Trust refers to the trustor's belief that the trusted person tends to cooperate with each other rather than using the trusted person to cooperate. Compliance is a state in which the act of state is consistent with the relevant provisions of the international system. According to the motivation of formation, trust relationship can be divided into different categories: conceptual distrust / trust, strategic distrust / trust. These categories together constitute the spectrum of trust, indicating different trust relationships and different levels of distrust / trust. Different types of trust have different effects on the behavior of state compliance. Countries with idealistic mistrust are in a zero-sum state and tend to doubt the credibility of the other party's commitment and that suspicion could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Countries with an idealistic relationship of trust have more common interests and tend to believe that they will keep their commitments, pay attention to the adverse effects of the external environment on each other and work together to eliminate them. The countries with strategic distrust / trust are non-enemies and non-friends. They predict the credibility of each other according to the specific cost and benefit, and then adopt corresponding behavior. Based on the relationship of trust, this paper divides the non-nuclear States parties of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear weapons (NPT) into three categories: the first type, which has an idealistic distrust with the United States, such as Iraq, North Korea, Libya and Iran. The United States has accused such countries of violating the NPT, and has threatened to take tough action against it. The attitude of the United States has provoked resistance from these countries and may lead to their eventual violation of the NPT. Second, countries that have an ideological trust with the United States, such as members of the Western Free Security Community with the United States at its core. The security of such countries is protected by the United States, their right to develop advanced nuclear technology is fully guaranteed, and they tend to comply with the NPT. Not only that, they also work with the United States to prevent nuclear proliferation. Third, countries outside the first two categories. These countries may have disputes with others, but their national and political security is not seriously threatened. When disputes are resolved effectively, such countries tend to comply with the NPT. In order to further explain the influence of trust relationship on the nuclear policy of NPT non-nuclear states, this paper selects Iran, Japan and Egypt as case studies to analyze the impact of trust relationship on their nuclear policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：D815.2

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