定量預測的風險來源與處理方法——以“高烈度政治動蕩”預測研究項目的再分析為例
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-06 19:41
【摘要】：近年來我國國際關系學界對預測研究的興趣迅速增長。國際關系預測有其較高的學術創(chuàng)新潛力和政策應用價值,應成為我國國際關系學科的一個重要的研究方向�？茖W預測基于對現(xiàn)有信息的分析,對未來尚未發(fā)生的事件進行判斷,是風險較大的研究工作,對于包括國際關系在內(nèi)的社會科學來說更是如此。本文在社會科學的普遍框架下,探討了國際關系定量預測的風險來源及其處理方法,并對"高烈度政治動蕩"預測研究項目(Political Instability Task Force)進行評述和再分析,修正原研究在風險控制和預測評估方面的缺陷和不足,運用新方法進行多模型平均預測來降低預測中最為棘手的模型風險。通過理論探討和實例分析,本文旨在強調(diào)國際關系定量預測研究對預測風險進行過程控制和結(jié)果評估的重要性,并以此管窺現(xiàn)有大量用于處理和評估預測不確定性的定量工具,包括進行變量選擇、模型比較、模型平均的多種方法。
[Abstract]:In recent years, there has been a rapid increase in interest in forecasting research in China's international relations community. The prediction of international relations has higher academic innovation potential and policy application value, which should be an important research direction of international relations in China. Based on the analysis of the existing information, scientific prediction is a risky research work, especially for the social sciences, including international relations, to judge the events that have not yet occurred in the future. Under the general framework of social science, this paper probes into the risk sources of quantitative prediction of international relations and its treatment methods, and reviews and reanalyses the prediction project (Political Instability Task Force) of "High intensity political turbulence". In order to reduce the most difficult model risk, the new method is used to reduce the most difficult model risk by correcting the defects and shortcomings of the original study in risk control and prediction evaluation. Through theoretical discussion and case analysis, this paper aims to emphasize the importance of quantitative forecasting research in international relations to process control and result assessment of forecasting risks, and to explore a large number of quantitative tools for dealing with and evaluating forecasting uncertainties. It includes variable selection, model comparison and model averaging.
【作者單位】： 清華大學國際關系學系;
【基金】：教育部國別與區(qū)域研究指向性課題“國際安全的大數(shù)據(jù)研究”的階段性成果
【分類號】：D81
[Abstract]:In recent years, there has been a rapid increase in interest in forecasting research in China's international relations community. The prediction of international relations has higher academic innovation potential and policy application value, which should be an important research direction of international relations in China. Based on the analysis of the existing information, scientific prediction is a risky research work, especially for the social sciences, including international relations, to judge the events that have not yet occurred in the future. Under the general framework of social science, this paper probes into the risk sources of quantitative prediction of international relations and its treatment methods, and reviews and reanalyses the prediction project (Political Instability Task Force) of "High intensity political turbulence". In order to reduce the most difficult model risk, the new method is used to reduce the most difficult model risk by correcting the defects and shortcomings of the original study in risk control and prediction evaluation. Through theoretical discussion and case analysis, this paper aims to emphasize the importance of quantitative forecasting research in international relations to process control and result assessment of forecasting risks, and to explore a large number of quantitative tools for dealing with and evaluating forecasting uncertainties. It includes variable selection, model comparison and model averaging.
【作者單位】： 清華大學國際關系學系;
【基金】：教育部國別與區(qū)域研究指向性課題“國際安全的大數(shù)據(jù)研究”的階段性成果
【分類號】：D81
【相似文獻】
相關期刊論文 前10條
1 永強;國際關系與“人道主義干預”國際研討會在京舉行[J];國際問題研究;2000年06期
2 陳峰君;21世紀初期亞太國際關系基本考量[J];當代世界;2000年01期
3 賈平安,張樹桐;當前國際關系的主要特征[J];重慶社會主義學院學報;2000年02期
4 熊偉;;國際關系網(wǎng)絡化[J];世界知識;2000年17期
5 吳永強;《新挑戰(zhàn)——國際關系中的“人道主義干預”》簡介[J];國際問題研究;2001年01期
6 郭隆隆;新世紀國際關系中的軟國力競爭[J];w攣胖蕓，
本文編號：2315272
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/shekelunwen/waijiao/2315272.html
最近更新
教材專著
