【摘要】：印度洋是古今大國(guó)爭(zhēng)奪世界霸權(quán)必然要關(guān)注但進(jìn)入后其結(jié)局都不好的區(qū)域。一般說(shuō)來(lái),控制印度洋的制海權(quán)必須有覆蓋南北緯30度區(qū)域的作戰(zhàn)能力——而只有世界性的大國(guó)才會(huì)有這樣的能力,不然,其前途要么崛起,要么滅亡。但古今霸權(quán)國(guó)家來(lái)到印度洋便進(jìn)入衰落期的教訓(xùn)告訴我們:在印度洋地區(qū)爭(zhēng)強(qiáng)好勝的結(jié)果都是不好的,獨(dú)吞世界從而獨(dú)控印度洋的想法是不切實(shí)際的,對(duì)中國(guó)而言更是非常危險(xiǎn)的,只有分享才是守福之道。國(guó)家發(fā)展道路并非只有要么衰落要么崛起即行擴(kuò)張的黑白兩道,在這中間一定會(huì)有守中持重的可持續(xù)發(fā)展的道路。世界只能在分享繁榮中和諧前進(jìn):歐洲當(dāng)為歐洲人民的歐洲,美洲當(dāng)為美洲人民的美洲,亞洲自然也是亞洲人民的。中國(guó)未來(lái)應(yīng)當(dāng)在"一截遺歐,一截贈(zèng)美"的愿景中為自己也為亞洲爭(zhēng)取到"一截還東國(guó)"的前途。大國(guó)崛起于地區(qū)性守成,消失于世界性擴(kuò)張,節(jié)制性地運(yùn)用國(guó)力既是保持國(guó)力持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的秘密,也是中國(guó)幾千年屹立不倒的智慧所在。中國(guó)堅(jiān)守地區(qū)性守成的政策既可幫助印度洋國(guó)家減輕"要么做一個(gè)有聲有色的大國(guó),要么就銷聲匿跡"的緊迫感,也會(huì)讓中國(guó)避免在印度洋地區(qū)不恰當(dāng)?shù)赝钢?guó)力并由此保證中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)政治經(jīng)濟(jì)在21世紀(jì)下半葉的持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The Indian Ocean is a region where great powers have to pay attention to the world hegemony, but their outcomes are not good after entering. In general, the power to control the Indian Ocean must have a combat capability that covers the 30-degree latitudes north and south, and only the world's great powers will have the ability to do so, or their future will either rise or perish. But the lesson that hegemonic powers have come to the Indian Ocean in the past and now to enter a period of decline tells us that the results of competing in the Indian Ocean are not good, and that the idea of monopolizing the world and taking control of the Indian Ocean alone is impractical. This is especially dangerous for China, where sharing is the only way to keep good fortune. The road of national development is not only black and white, which is either decline or rise, but also the path of sustainable development. The world can move forward in harmony only in sharing prosperity: Europe is Europe for its people, America for its people, and Asia for its people. In the future, China should strive for the future of "returning to the East" for Asia as well as for itself in the vision of "one piece of Europe and one part of the United States." It is not only the secret to keep the national strength growing continuously, but also the wisdom that China stands for thousands of years. China's adherence to a regional policy can help Indian Ocean countries to reduce their sense of urgency to "either become a powerful country or disappear." It will also prevent China from overdrawing power inappropriately in the Indian Ocean and thus ensure the continued development of China's domestic politics and economy in the second half of the 21st century.
【作者單位】： 北京航空航天大學(xué)戰(zhàn)略問(wèn)題研究中心;
【分類號(hào)】：D815

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