美國反恐重心東移及其對中國的影響
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-09 20:27
【摘要】： 奧巴馬上臺后制定了針對阿富汗和巴基斯坦的“阿富巴”反恐新戰(zhàn)略,對美國的反恐戰(zhàn)略作出了戰(zhàn)略性的調(diào)整。新戰(zhàn)略有幾個鮮明的特點:一、改變過去過度依賴軍事打擊的做法,加強對阿富汗的民事援助,發(fā)展阿富汗的武裝力量;二、整合阿富汗和巴基斯坦,由美國牽頭進行反恐;三、降低反恐目標,由促進阿富汗民主化改為實現(xiàn)阿富汗和巴基斯坦的安全,對溫和塔利班的采取招撫政策,試圖分化塔利班,顯得更為務(wù)實;四、運用巧實力,注重多邊外交的作用,強調(diào)其北約盟國和中國、俄羅斯、伊朗、印度等大國的作用。美國反恐新戰(zhàn)略找到了反恐的癥結(jié)所在。然而,美國面臨著恐怖與反恐怖對峙加劇,阿富汗政府腐敗無能,巴基斯坦政府無力推動反恐,國際社會不支持等一系列困境,反恐前途未卜。 美國反恐重心東移,其首要目的確實是打擊阿富汗和巴基斯坦的基地組織和其支持者塔利班。美國在歐亞地緣政治的核心地帶強化其軍事存在和政治影響,可輕易地向中亞和南亞擴展自己的影響力,北上可圍堵俄羅斯,東進可遏制中國,西進則可威懾其中東死對頭伊朗,這必然會引起中亞和南亞大國博弈的加劇。美國反恐重心東移,勢必會對中國在南亞和中亞的經(jīng)濟和能源利益帶來不可預(yù)知的影響,關(guān)系到中國西部的國家安全。中國的地緣政治空間將受到壓縮,與巴基斯坦的戰(zhàn)略關(guān)系也將充滿變數(shù)。美國成功整合阿富汗和巴基斯坦,對整合中亞和南亞的大中亞計劃將起到關(guān)鍵作用,屆時,美國將對中國形成圓形的包圍圈,中國未來的發(fā)展就會受到美國的牽制。 中國應(yīng)積極參與阿富汗的重建,增加對阿富汗的經(jīng)濟和技術(shù)援助,加強與阿富汗政府在反恐、打擊毒品走私和有組織犯罪等方面的合作,幫助阿富汗盡早實現(xiàn)“阿人治阿”;加強與巴基斯坦的關(guān)系,通過大力發(fā)展經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系鞏固兩國的深厚友誼;推動上合組織發(fā)揮解決阿富汗和巴基斯坦問題上的建設(shè)性作用,加強與俄羅斯的戰(zhàn)略合作關(guān)系;加大西部大開發(fā)的力度,縮小東西部發(fā)展的鴻溝,促進少數(shù)民族地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,加強少數(shù)民族的國家認同感,加大對三股惡勢力的打擊力度,確保西北地區(qū)的政治穩(wěn)定;妥善處理好大國關(guān)系,為中國營造一個安全、穩(wěn)定的西部周邊環(huán)境。
[Abstract]:After Obama took office, he formulated a new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and made a strategic adjustment to the United States' counter-terrorism strategy. The new strategy has several distinct features: first, to change the past practice of over-reliance on military strikes, to strengthen civilian assistance to Afghanistan and to develop Afghan armed forces; and second, to integrate Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the United States taking the lead in counter-terrorism; Third, it is more pragmatic to lower the target of countering terrorism, to change from promoting democratization in Afghanistan to achieving security in Afghanistan and Pakistan, to adopt a policy of caressing the moderate Taliban, and to try to divide the Taliban; fourthly, to use skillful power. Focus on the role of multilateral diplomacy, emphasizing its NATO allies and the role of China, Russia, Iran, India and other major countries. The new anti-terrorism strategy of the United States has found the crux of the fight against terrorism. However, the United States faces a series of difficulties, such as intensifying confrontation between terror and anti-terror, corruption and incompetence of the Afghan government, the inability of the Pakistani government to promote counter-terrorism, and the lack of support from the international community. The future of the fight against terrorism is uncertain. America's focus on counterterrorism has shifted eastward, and its primary aim is indeed to fight al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan and its backers, the Taliban. By strengthening its military presence and political influence in the heart of Eurasian geopolitics, the United States can easily expand its influence in Central and South Asia. A westward advance would deter Iran, a rival in the Middle East, which would inevitably intensify the game between the big powers of Central and South Asia. The eastward shift of the U.S. counterterrorism focus will inevitably have an unpredictable impact on China's economic and energy interests in South and Central Asia, and will have a bearing on the national security of western China. China's geopolitical space will be compressed, and its strategic relationship with Pakistan will be fraught with uncertainty. The successful integration of Afghanistan and Pakistan will play a key role in the integration of Central Asia and South Asia, when the United States will form a circle of China, China's future development will be constrained by the United States. China should actively participate in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, increase its economic and technical assistance to Afghanistan, strengthen its cooperation with the Afghan Government in the areas of anti-terrorism, drug smuggling and organized crime, and help Afghanistan realize "people ruling Afghanistan" as soon as possible; Strengthening relations with Pakistan, consolidating the deep friendship between the two countries through vigorously developing economic and trade relations, promoting the SCO to play a constructive role in resolving the problems between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and strengthening strategic cooperative relations with Russia; Strengthen the development of the west, narrow the gap between the east and the west, promote the economic development of the minority areas, strengthen the national identity of the ethnic minorities, intensify the crackdown on the three evil forces, and ensure the political stability of the northwest region; Properly handle major-power relations and create a secure and stable surrounding environment for China's western region.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：外交學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：D871.2
本文編號：2233481
[Abstract]:After Obama took office, he formulated a new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and made a strategic adjustment to the United States' counter-terrorism strategy. The new strategy has several distinct features: first, to change the past practice of over-reliance on military strikes, to strengthen civilian assistance to Afghanistan and to develop Afghan armed forces; and second, to integrate Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the United States taking the lead in counter-terrorism; Third, it is more pragmatic to lower the target of countering terrorism, to change from promoting democratization in Afghanistan to achieving security in Afghanistan and Pakistan, to adopt a policy of caressing the moderate Taliban, and to try to divide the Taliban; fourthly, to use skillful power. Focus on the role of multilateral diplomacy, emphasizing its NATO allies and the role of China, Russia, Iran, India and other major countries. The new anti-terrorism strategy of the United States has found the crux of the fight against terrorism. However, the United States faces a series of difficulties, such as intensifying confrontation between terror and anti-terror, corruption and incompetence of the Afghan government, the inability of the Pakistani government to promote counter-terrorism, and the lack of support from the international community. The future of the fight against terrorism is uncertain. America's focus on counterterrorism has shifted eastward, and its primary aim is indeed to fight al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan and its backers, the Taliban. By strengthening its military presence and political influence in the heart of Eurasian geopolitics, the United States can easily expand its influence in Central and South Asia. A westward advance would deter Iran, a rival in the Middle East, which would inevitably intensify the game between the big powers of Central and South Asia. The eastward shift of the U.S. counterterrorism focus will inevitably have an unpredictable impact on China's economic and energy interests in South and Central Asia, and will have a bearing on the national security of western China. China's geopolitical space will be compressed, and its strategic relationship with Pakistan will be fraught with uncertainty. The successful integration of Afghanistan and Pakistan will play a key role in the integration of Central Asia and South Asia, when the United States will form a circle of China, China's future development will be constrained by the United States. China should actively participate in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, increase its economic and technical assistance to Afghanistan, strengthen its cooperation with the Afghan Government in the areas of anti-terrorism, drug smuggling and organized crime, and help Afghanistan realize "people ruling Afghanistan" as soon as possible; Strengthening relations with Pakistan, consolidating the deep friendship between the two countries through vigorously developing economic and trade relations, promoting the SCO to play a constructive role in resolving the problems between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and strengthening strategic cooperative relations with Russia; Strengthen the development of the west, narrow the gap between the east and the west, promote the economic development of the minority areas, strengthen the national identity of the ethnic minorities, intensify the crackdown on the three evil forces, and ensure the political stability of the northwest region; Properly handle major-power relations and create a secure and stable surrounding environment for China's western region.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：外交學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：D871.2
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