冷戰(zhàn)后美國對華政策決策層的認(rèn)知分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-04 17:56
【摘要】：冷戰(zhàn)后，中美關(guān)系跌宕起伏，甚至出現(xiàn)數(shù)次危機，但之后都能化險為夷，最終走向正常發(fā)展的軌道，這是迄今為止冷戰(zhàn)后中美關(guān)系發(fā)展的最顯著的規(guī)律。中國堅持“韜光養(yǎng)晦，有所作為”的方針和“和平發(fā)展”的國際戰(zhàn)略，以戰(zhàn)略眼光和長遠觀點審視和處理中美關(guān)系，把握兩國關(guān)系和平發(fā)展的大局，逐漸確定了發(fā)展中美關(guān)系的指導(dǎo)方針。相比之下，美國在對華政策上始終沒有形成一致意見，并依仗其實力掌握著中美關(guān)系變化的主動性。因此，研究美國對華政策有助于把握中美關(guān)系的發(fā)展方向。本文試從影響美國對華政策錯綜復(fù)雜的因素中找到導(dǎo)致這一規(guī)律的根本原因。筆者認(rèn)為，美國對華政策的制定和實施都是由人來執(zhí)行的，其決策層是制定和實施對華政策的關(guān)鍵。 本文采用認(rèn)知心理學(xué)的分析方法，通過分析冷戰(zhàn)后老布什—克林頓—小布什—奧巴馬四任六屆政府決策層的認(rèn)知結(jié)構(gòu)（cognitive structure），包括信念體系（belief systems）和政治圖式（political schema），從美國對華政策的決策層心理因素這一微觀層次上分析美國對華政策的實質(zhì)。冷戰(zhàn)后歷任政府對華政策決策層的信念體系包括其主要成員（總統(tǒng)、副總統(tǒng)、總統(tǒng)國家安全事務(wù)助理、國務(wù)卿、國防部長、財政部長、副國務(wù)卿、國家安全委員會東亞事務(wù)主任、負(fù)責(zé)亞太事務(wù)的助理國務(wù)卿和駐華大使等）的成長歷程、宗教信仰、教育背景、職業(yè)生涯、政治思想和對華觀點等，這是決策層制定對華政策的思想根源。在此基礎(chǔ)上，筆者主要采用建立在信息加工基礎(chǔ)上的第二代認(rèn)知結(jié)構(gòu)理論——政治圖式理論來分析美國對華政策決策層的心理因素。圖式是指“反映現(xiàn)實世界某些方面、圍繞特定主題組織人們知識和設(shè)想并有助于理解和處理社會信息的一種心理框架或結(jié)構(gòu)”。筆者認(rèn)為，冷戰(zhàn)后美國對華政策決策層的政治圖式是“美國戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)”、“美國經(jīng)濟利益”、“美國安全利益”和“美國價值觀”四位一體組合構(gòu)成的心理框架結(jié)構(gòu)（老布什政府是除“美國安全利益”之外的三位一體組合）。歷任決策層根據(jù)自身所處的國際和國內(nèi)環(huán)境，對大量的涉及中國的信息進行加工，這些信息以中美互動關(guān)系（中美實力對比的變化、經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系、臺灣問題等）為核心，以國際局勢的變化為基礎(chǔ)（大國力量對比變化、大國關(guān)系和全球問題等），同時受到美國國內(nèi)因素（外交決策機構(gòu)、利益集團和社會力量等）和第三方因素（如美國的盟國、敵視國、國際突發(fā)事件等）的影響。涉華信息首先以表征（representation）的形式存在于決策層的大腦中。表征一方面反映客觀事物，另一方面又與決策層既有的對華政策的政治圖式相互作用。美國決策層以其政治圖式作為干預(yù)變量，對所得到的表征進行加工，使其所做出的任何對華政策都符合其既有的政治圖式；如果在對華政策的具體實施過程中發(fā)現(xiàn)有與政治圖式不符之處，決策層用其政治圖式重新檢驗并修正該政策，直至最終做出自認(rèn)為正確的決策并付諸實踐。 筆者通過對比分析冷戰(zhàn)后美國四任六屆政府對華政策決策層的政治圖式，找到其異同點尤其是共性，從微觀層次上認(rèn)清美國對華政策的實質(zhì)，并以此為依據(jù)制定相應(yīng)的對美政策。筆者發(fā)現(xiàn)，冷戰(zhàn)后美國四任政府對華政策決策層政治圖式均包括三個方面：美國戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)（維護霸權(quán)）、美國經(jīng)濟利益（維護美國經(jīng)濟霸權(quán)、發(fā)展國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟等）和美國價值觀（包括自由、民主、人權(quán)等），從克林頓政府時期開始增加了美國安全利益（核不擴散、打擊恐怖主義勢力、全球性問題等）的內(nèi)容。相同點是“美國戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)”在所有政治圖式中都處于支配地位。其不同點是：隨著國際局勢和中美互動關(guān)系（尤其是中美實力對比）的變化，加之兩黨傳統(tǒng)信念體系的不同，“美國經(jīng)濟利益”和“美國價值觀”以及“美國安全利益”在維護其戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)時的相對地位和優(yōu)先次序有所調(diào)整，，三者或四者由此形成以戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)為支配地位的不同的關(guān)系組合。同時，歷屆政府決策層和國會中的對華強硬派與溫和派之間的競爭和相互妥協(xié)也在很大程度上影響并修正了對華政策，表現(xiàn)在前三任政府的對華政策都由上任之初的對立或競爭轉(zhuǎn)向后期的接觸與合作。奧巴馬政府有意識地避免了前三任的這種政策失誤，但其第一屆對華政策的發(fā)展趨勢有矯枉過正之勢。 筆者認(rèn)為，美國對華政策的根本出發(fā)點和實質(zhì)是為了維護美國的世界霸權(quán)，防止中國作為新興大國挑戰(zhàn)其世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位，同時從未放棄向中國推行美國的價值觀。需要指出的是，美國歷任決策層尤其是其中的強硬派對中國的發(fā)展道路、世界的發(fā)展趨勢以及價值觀普世性上存在認(rèn)知偏差。事實上，中國的和平發(fā)展沒有挑戰(zhàn)美國世界霸權(quán)的意圖，但有維護自身核心利益的決心和能力；在經(jīng)濟全球化的大趨勢下，美國在經(jīng)濟、政治、安全等各個領(lǐng)域都離不開與中國的合作，世界主導(dǎo)性大國和新興大國之間的關(guān)系不再是簡單的霸權(quán)競爭和取代關(guān)系，而是合作與相互依存的關(guān)系；美國的價值觀并不具有普世性，在一定的社會發(fā)展階段和很多國家與民族并不適用。美國決策層在這些方面的認(rèn)知偏差在很大程度上影響著美國的對華政策和中美關(guān)系的發(fā)展方向。 當(dāng)前中美關(guān)系中最大的問題是缺乏戰(zhàn)略互信，即“戰(zhàn)略互疑”呈上升趨勢。中國制定對美政策時，要把握美國對華政策實質(zhì)，同時避免自己對美國的認(rèn)知偏差。讓美國相信中國的和平發(fā)展道路，不僅要體現(xiàn)在中國對美政策和對外戰(zhàn)略的宣傳上，更重要的是通過溝通增進互信，從心理上矯正美國決策層的認(rèn)知偏差，在中美關(guān)系發(fā)展方向上形成共識。筆者認(rèn)為中美雙方應(yīng)從根本問題上、長遠發(fā)展和當(dāng)前關(guān)系處理三個方面處理好中美關(guān)系：在意識形態(tài)、社會制度和歷史文化傳統(tǒng)等方面相互尊重；從長遠的戰(zhàn)略角度強化雙方互利共贏的合作，減少對雙方不利的競爭和不必要的摩擦；當(dāng)前應(yīng)著重管控分歧，考慮和照顧對方的需求和關(guān)切，彼此妥協(xié)，建立危機管控機制。中國應(yīng)和美國共同努力探索新型大國關(guān)系的內(nèi)涵，并積極推動與美國構(gòu)建更加成熟的新型大國關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:After the cold war, the relations between China and the United States have been undulating and even several crises, but after that, all of them can go into danger and eventually go to the track of normal development. This is the most remarkable rule in the development of Sino US relations so far. The far point of view is to examine and deal with the Sino US relations, grasp the overall situation of the peaceful development of the relations between the two countries, and gradually determine the guiding principles for the development of Sino US relations. In contrast, the United States has never formed a consensus on China's China policy and grasps the changes in Sino US relations depending on its strength. Therefore, the study of the US policy towards China is helpful to grasp. This paper tries to find out the fundamental causes of this rule from the complicated factors that affect the United States' policy to China. The author believes that the formulation and implementation of the US policy to China are carried out by people, and the decision-making level is the key to the formulation and implementation of China's policy to China.
In this paper, the cognitive psychology analysis method is used to analyze the cognitive structure (cognitive structure) of the four government decision layer of Bush - Clinton - George W. Bush - Obama after the cold war, including the belief system (belief systems) and the political schema (political schema), from the psychological factors of the policy level of the United States to China. On the level of the analysis of the essence of the American policy towards China, the belief system of the policy decision level of the government after the cold war includes its main members (president, vice president, assistant president, national security affairs, Secretary of state, defense minister, finance minister, deputy secretary of state, director of East Asia affairs of National Security Council, assistant secretary of state for Asia Pacific Affairs and the assistant secretary of state for Asia Pacific Affairs. " The growth process of the ambassador to China, religious belief, educational background, career, political thought and China's views on China are the ideological roots of policy making in the decision-making level. On this basis, the author mainly adopts the second generation cognitive structure theory based on information processing - political schema theory to analyze the policy decision of the United States to China The psychological factor of the stratagem. Schema refers to "a psychological frame or structure that reflects some aspects of the real world, organizing people's knowledge and imagination around a particular topic and helping to understand and handle social information." the author believes that the political schemata of the policy decision layer of the United States to China after the cold war are "American strategic objectives", "American economic interests." "The psychological frame structure of the four integration of" American security interests "and" American values "(the Bush administration is a combination of the Trinity other than the" American security interests "). The decision-making level processes a large number of information about China based on its own international and domestic environment, which is based on China and the United States The interaction (the change of the Sino US strength contrast, the economic and trade relations, the Taiwan problem, etc.) is the core, based on the changes in the international situation (the contrast of the power of the great powers, the great power relations and the global problems, etc.), and the domestic factors of the United States (diplomatic decision-making bodies, interest groups and social forces, etc.) and the third party factors (such as the allies and hostile countries of the United States. The influence of international emergencies. The information involved in China first exists in the brain of the decision making level in the form of representation. On the one hand, it reflects the objective things, on the other hand, the interaction with the political schemata of the policy in China. To process it, so that any policy to China made is in line with its existing political schemata. If there is something inconsistent with the political schema in the specific implementation of China's policy to China, the decision layer reexamines and corrects the policy with its political schemata until the final decision is made and put into practice.
Through the comparison and analysis of the political schemata of the policy decision layer of the four six governments in the United States after the cold war, the author finds its similarities and differences, and recognise the essence of the United States policy towards China from the micro level, and make the corresponding policy to the United States on this basis. The author finds that the political schemata of the policy decision layer of the four government in the United States after the cold war. All of these include three aspects: the US strategic objectives (maintaining hegemony), American economic interests (safeguarding American economic hegemony, developing domestic economy, etc.) and American values (including freedom, democracy, human rights, etc.), which began to increase the security interests of the United States (nuclear non-proliferation, the fight against terrorism, global problems, etc.) from the Clinton administration. The same point is that the "US strategic goal" is in the dominant position in all political schemata. The relative position and priority of maintaining its strategic objectives have been adjusted, and the three or four of them form a different combination of relations with strategic objectives. At the same time, the competition and compromise between the government decision-making layer and the Congress of the hardliners and the moderates in the Congress also greatly influence and amend the Chinese government. The policy, manifested in the first three governments' policy towards China, has shifted from the opposition or competition to the early stage to the later contact and cooperation. The Obama administration has consciously avoided the previous three policy mistakes, but the trend of its first China policy towards China has been overcorrected.
The fundamental starting point and essence of the American policy towards China is to safeguard the world hegemony of the United States, prevent China from challenging its world leadership as a emerging power, and never give up the value of the United States to China. In fact, the peaceful development of China does not challenge the hegemony of the United States, but has the determination and ability to maintain its own core interests. In the big trend of economic globalization, the United States can not cooperate with China in the economic, political, security and other fields. The relationship between the leading and emerging powers of the world is no longer a simple hegemonic competition and a replacement relationship, but a relationship between cooperation and interdependence; the values of the United States are not universal, and are not applicable in a certain stage of social development and in many countries and nations. To a certain extent, it affects the US policy toward China and the direction of Sino US relations.
At present, the biggest problem in Sino US relations is the lack of strategic mutual trust, that is, "strategic mutual doubt" is on the rise. China should grasp the essence of the US policy towards China and avoid its cognitive bias when formulating the US policy on the United States. On the propaganda, it is more important to promote mutual trust through communication, to rectify the cognitive bias of American decision making and to form a consensus in the direction of the development of Sino US relations. The author believes that both China and the United States should deal with the relationship between China and the United States in three aspects: the fundamental problem, the long-term development and the current relationship processing: the ideology, the social system and the historical text. We should strengthen mutual benefit and mutual benefit from a long-term strategic perspective and reduce the disadvantageous competition and unnecessary friction between the two sides. At present, we should focus on management and control differences, consider and take care of the needs and concerns of each other, compromise each other, and establish a system of crisis control. China should work together with the United States to explore new countries. The connotation of the relationship and actively promote the establishment of a more mature new power relations with the United States.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共中央黨校
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：D871.2;D822
本文編號：2164653
[Abstract]:After the cold war, the relations between China and the United States have been undulating and even several crises, but after that, all of them can go into danger and eventually go to the track of normal development. This is the most remarkable rule in the development of Sino US relations so far. The far point of view is to examine and deal with the Sino US relations, grasp the overall situation of the peaceful development of the relations between the two countries, and gradually determine the guiding principles for the development of Sino US relations. In contrast, the United States has never formed a consensus on China's China policy and grasps the changes in Sino US relations depending on its strength. Therefore, the study of the US policy towards China is helpful to grasp. This paper tries to find out the fundamental causes of this rule from the complicated factors that affect the United States' policy to China. The author believes that the formulation and implementation of the US policy to China are carried out by people, and the decision-making level is the key to the formulation and implementation of China's policy to China.
In this paper, the cognitive psychology analysis method is used to analyze the cognitive structure (cognitive structure) of the four government decision layer of Bush - Clinton - George W. Bush - Obama after the cold war, including the belief system (belief systems) and the political schema (political schema), from the psychological factors of the policy level of the United States to China. On the level of the analysis of the essence of the American policy towards China, the belief system of the policy decision level of the government after the cold war includes its main members (president, vice president, assistant president, national security affairs, Secretary of state, defense minister, finance minister, deputy secretary of state, director of East Asia affairs of National Security Council, assistant secretary of state for Asia Pacific Affairs and the assistant secretary of state for Asia Pacific Affairs. " The growth process of the ambassador to China, religious belief, educational background, career, political thought and China's views on China are the ideological roots of policy making in the decision-making level. On this basis, the author mainly adopts the second generation cognitive structure theory based on information processing - political schema theory to analyze the policy decision of the United States to China The psychological factor of the stratagem. Schema refers to "a psychological frame or structure that reflects some aspects of the real world, organizing people's knowledge and imagination around a particular topic and helping to understand and handle social information." the author believes that the political schemata of the policy decision layer of the United States to China after the cold war are "American strategic objectives", "American economic interests." "The psychological frame structure of the four integration of" American security interests "and" American values "(the Bush administration is a combination of the Trinity other than the" American security interests "). The decision-making level processes a large number of information about China based on its own international and domestic environment, which is based on China and the United States The interaction (the change of the Sino US strength contrast, the economic and trade relations, the Taiwan problem, etc.) is the core, based on the changes in the international situation (the contrast of the power of the great powers, the great power relations and the global problems, etc.), and the domestic factors of the United States (diplomatic decision-making bodies, interest groups and social forces, etc.) and the third party factors (such as the allies and hostile countries of the United States. The influence of international emergencies. The information involved in China first exists in the brain of the decision making level in the form of representation. On the one hand, it reflects the objective things, on the other hand, the interaction with the political schemata of the policy in China. To process it, so that any policy to China made is in line with its existing political schemata. If there is something inconsistent with the political schema in the specific implementation of China's policy to China, the decision layer reexamines and corrects the policy with its political schemata until the final decision is made and put into practice.
Through the comparison and analysis of the political schemata of the policy decision layer of the four six governments in the United States after the cold war, the author finds its similarities and differences, and recognise the essence of the United States policy towards China from the micro level, and make the corresponding policy to the United States on this basis. The author finds that the political schemata of the policy decision layer of the four government in the United States after the cold war. All of these include three aspects: the US strategic objectives (maintaining hegemony), American economic interests (safeguarding American economic hegemony, developing domestic economy, etc.) and American values (including freedom, democracy, human rights, etc.), which began to increase the security interests of the United States (nuclear non-proliferation, the fight against terrorism, global problems, etc.) from the Clinton administration. The same point is that the "US strategic goal" is in the dominant position in all political schemata. The relative position and priority of maintaining its strategic objectives have been adjusted, and the three or four of them form a different combination of relations with strategic objectives. At the same time, the competition and compromise between the government decision-making layer and the Congress of the hardliners and the moderates in the Congress also greatly influence and amend the Chinese government. The policy, manifested in the first three governments' policy towards China, has shifted from the opposition or competition to the early stage to the later contact and cooperation. The Obama administration has consciously avoided the previous three policy mistakes, but the trend of its first China policy towards China has been overcorrected.
The fundamental starting point and essence of the American policy towards China is to safeguard the world hegemony of the United States, prevent China from challenging its world leadership as a emerging power, and never give up the value of the United States to China. In fact, the peaceful development of China does not challenge the hegemony of the United States, but has the determination and ability to maintain its own core interests. In the big trend of economic globalization, the United States can not cooperate with China in the economic, political, security and other fields. The relationship between the leading and emerging powers of the world is no longer a simple hegemonic competition and a replacement relationship, but a relationship between cooperation and interdependence; the values of the United States are not universal, and are not applicable in a certain stage of social development and in many countries and nations. To a certain extent, it affects the US policy toward China and the direction of Sino US relations.
At present, the biggest problem in Sino US relations is the lack of strategic mutual trust, that is, "strategic mutual doubt" is on the rise. China should grasp the essence of the US policy towards China and avoid its cognitive bias when formulating the US policy on the United States. On the propaganda, it is more important to promote mutual trust through communication, to rectify the cognitive bias of American decision making and to form a consensus in the direction of the development of Sino US relations. The author believes that both China and the United States should deal with the relationship between China and the United States in three aspects: the fundamental problem, the long-term development and the current relationship processing: the ideology, the social system and the historical text. We should strengthen mutual benefit and mutual benefit from a long-term strategic perspective and reduce the disadvantageous competition and unnecessary friction between the two sides. At present, we should focus on management and control differences, consider and take care of the needs and concerns of each other, compromise each other, and establish a system of crisis control. China should work together with the United States to explore new countries. The connotation of the relationship and actively promote the establishment of a more mature new power relations with the United States.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共中央黨校
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：D871.2;D822
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條
1 孫茹;;美國:“太平洋世紀(jì)”加大對華施壓[J];世界知識;2011年23期
2 劉建飛;;2011年美國動態(tài)評析[J];中國黨政干部論壇;2012年01期
本文編號：2164653
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