本文選題：能源安全 + 能源外交��； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：本文從中美能源安全戰(zhàn)略的角度對(duì)中美關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析,分析的主導(dǎo)視角是中國的能源安全戰(zhàn)略。冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束后,中美關(guān)系成為國際社會(huì)中最重要的雙邊關(guān)系。中美兩國在多方面進(jìn)行合作,但是在戰(zhàn)略安全領(lǐng)域卻是對(duì)立、競爭與合作共存的。在中美能源安全關(guān)系上也是如此。目前能源安全成為影響國家安全和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中一個(gè)十分重要的因素。能源,尤其石油是一種戰(zhàn)略性資源,其供應(yīng)不僅關(guān)系到一個(gè)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,更關(guān)系到社會(huì)穩(wěn)定、區(qū)域安全和世界政治、軍事形勢(shì)。因此,當(dāng)代工業(yè)國家,無論是發(fā)達(dá)國家還是發(fā)展中國家,石油安全都是國家安全和經(jīng)濟(jì)安全的重要組成部分。 作為新興經(jīng)濟(jì)大國,中國的能源消耗正隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展而激增,對(duì)國際供求不均衡與短期價(jià)格暴漲的危機(jī)感正也愈加敏感。因此,中國政府將以石油的安全供應(yīng)為能源安全的主要目標(biāo)。為實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo),最重要的是以能源的安全供應(yīng)與運(yùn)輸為后盾。相反,美國的能源戰(zhàn)略,是以控制能源為基礎(chǔ),進(jìn)而主導(dǎo)國際秩序。為此,美國一方面通過跨國能源公司確保能源供應(yīng),另一方面美國政府運(yùn)用政治、外交、軍事手段,維持美國主導(dǎo)的能源霸權(quán)格局。 從中國的立場(chǎng)看,威脅其自身能源安全的因素較多。其中,由于中國石油對(duì)外依賴程度較高,威脅因素主要集中于以下三個(gè)方面：原油供應(yīng)過程中供應(yīng)源的不穩(wěn)定、運(yùn)輸通道的安全問題與原油價(jià)格的不穩(wěn)定。因此,為確保能源安全,中國一方面正在展開積極的能源外交,另一方面又在推進(jìn)戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備及海軍現(xiàn)代化。 從能源供應(yīng)的角度來看,中美兩國消耗的原油量均大于本國的產(chǎn)量且兩國的需求量正在持續(xù)增加,但兩國采取了不同的手段。美國企圖通過對(duì)能源的控制而維持其世界霸權(quán)。而中國為了獲得獨(dú)立安全的能源供應(yīng),正在實(shí)施積極的能源外交。由此看來,中美兩國圍繞能源保障的競爭將愈發(fā)激烈。 中國認(rèn)為,在其能源安全威脅因素中,最為現(xiàn)實(shí)的因素與能源運(yùn)輸路線的安全有關(guān)。美國運(yùn)用軍事力量對(duì)能源運(yùn)輸通道進(jìn)行控制。如美國是唯一擁有軍事力量封鎖馬六甲海峽的國家。中國最為擔(dān)憂的是美國對(duì)馬六甲海峽的封鎖。胡錦濤主席將這種憂慮稱為“馬六甲困局”。因此,中國正在加強(qiáng)確保能源運(yùn)輸通道的安全的舉措。中國在展開積極的能源外交的同時(shí),正在加速發(fā)展其軍事力量,尤其是海軍。對(duì)于中國欲通過增強(qiáng)軍事實(shí)力,確保海上運(yùn)輸通道安全的意圖,美國國內(nèi)表現(xiàn)出擔(dān)憂,并對(duì)其進(jìn)行牽制。因此,中美之間存在沖突的可能性。但中美兩國間因海上能源運(yùn)輸通道而發(fā)生沖突的可能性極小。在和平狀態(tài)下,非傳統(tǒng)安全問題對(duì)中美能源運(yùn)輸安全已構(gòu)成威脅。而且,中美兩國維持海上運(yùn)輸通道的和平共存態(tài)勢(shì)也是中美兩國的共同利益。因此,中美兩國將有通過合作解決海盜等非傳統(tǒng)安全問題的空間。中美兩國海軍將會(huì)因海上運(yùn)輸通道安全進(jìn)行更多的戰(zhàn)略溝通合作。 中美兩國雖然在確保能源供應(yīng)方面存在競爭,但是中美兩國都是對(duì)外依賴度高的能源消費(fèi)國,在石油價(jià)格穩(wěn)定及石油需求穩(wěn)定方面存在共同利益。美國及國際能源機(jī)構(gòu)(IEA)邀請(qǐng)中國加入IEA,讓中國參與IEA緊急共享體系。但I(xiàn)EA章程規(guī)定成員國必須是經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織(OECD)成員,中國卻又無權(quán)加入。但I(xiàn)EA已經(jīng)表示,為了讓中國加入,該組織可以考慮修改章程的相關(guān)規(guī)定。但是IEA是由西方國家主導(dǎo)的能源機(jī)構(gòu),中國擔(dān)心加入IEA自身的石油戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備會(huì)受到過多的影響。其實(shí),從博弈的收益角度來看,IEA成員國與中國的利益都是一致的。中國加入IEA可以進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)IEA干預(yù)世界石油市場(chǎng)的能力達(dá)到石油價(jià)格的穩(wěn)定。短期來看,中國加入IEA不一定導(dǎo)致石油價(jià)格下降,但可以增強(qiáng)IEA維護(hù)世界油價(jià)平穩(wěn)的能力,能源消費(fèi)國都可以間接獲利從而維持經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。因此,中美兩國在IEA內(nèi)有進(jìn)行石油戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備方面合作的可能性。 總而言之,筆者認(rèn)為,中國目前采取的能源安全戰(zhàn)略使得中國和美國之間的沖突的可能性不是太大。中國的積極的能源外交努力,中國對(duì)產(chǎn)油國的影響力將增加。而且隨著中國海軍力量的增強(qiáng),將會(huì)引起東北亞地區(qū)國家的軍事力量相應(yīng)增強(qiáng)甚至軍備競爭。這將會(huì)威脅地區(qū)安全與中美關(guān)系。但是,從短期來看,這并不是對(duì)于美國霸權(quán)的挑戰(zhàn),而且也不會(huì)造成世界能源秩序的大變化。中美雙方在安全的石油供應(yīng)方面存在著競爭與合作。但是,兩國因?yàn)槭蛦栴}而發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭的可能性幾乎很小。中國和美國兩個(gè)國家都是追求自身利益的國家。此外,中美兩國為了國家安全都要確保能源安全。因此,筆者認(rèn)為,中國和美國,一方面在避免直接沖突的同時(shí),將展開各自的能源安全戰(zhàn)略。同時(shí),另一方面,通過合作解決能源安全問題構(gòu)成的威脅。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes Sino US relations from the perspective of China and the United States energy security strategy. The leading perspective of the analysis is China's energy security strategy. After the end of the cold war, Sino US relations have become the most important bilateral relations in the international community. China and the United States have cooperated in many ways, but in the field of strategic security, the coexistence of competition and cooperation. It is also the same as the energy security relationship between China and the United States. Energy security has become a very important factor affecting national security and economic development. Energy, especially oil is a strategic resource. Its supply is not only related to the economic development of a country, but also to social stability, regional security and world politics and military situation. In modern industrial countries, both developed and developing countries, oil security is an important part of national security and economic security.
As a emerging economic power, China's energy consumption is increasing with the economic development, and it is becoming more sensitive to the crisis of international supply and demand imbalance and short-term price boom. Therefore, the Chinese government will use the safe supply of oil as the main target of energy security. On the contrary, the US energy strategy is based on the control of energy and leading to the international order. To this end, the United States, on the one hand, ensures energy supply through transnational energy companies, on the other hand, the United States government uses political, diplomatic and military means to maintain the US led energy hegemony.
From China's standpoint, there are many factors that threaten its own energy security. Among them, because of the high degree of foreign dependence of China's oil, the threat factors are mainly concentrated in the following three aspects: the instability of supply sources in the process of crude oil supply, the safety of transportation channels and the instability of the original oil price. Positive energy diplomacy is being launched, and strategic petroleum reserves and naval modernization are also being promoted.
From the perspective of energy supply, both China and the United States have consumed more crude oil than their own production and the demand for both countries is increasing, but the two countries have taken different means. The United States is trying to maintain its world hegemony by controlling energy. China is carrying out active energy in order to gain an independent and secure energy supply. From this point of view, the competition between China and the United States on energy security will become increasingly fierce.
China believes that among its energy security threats, the most realistic factor is related to the safety of energy transport routes. The United States uses military forces to control energy transport channels. For example, the United States is the only country with military forces to blockade the Malacca Straits. China's most concern is the United States blockade of the Malacca Strait. Hu Jintao The president called the worry "the Malacca dilemma". Therefore, China is strengthening its efforts to ensure the safety of the energy transport corridor. China is accelerating the development of its military forces, especially the Navy, while expanding its active energy diplomacy. The possibility of conflict exists between China and the United States. However, the possibility of conflict between China and the United States is very small. In the state of peace, the non-traditional security problems have posed a threat to the safety of energy transport between China and the United States. Moreover, China and the United States maintain the sea transport channel and the United States and China. The common interests of the two countries are also the common interests of the two countries. Therefore, China and the United States will have the space to solve the non traditional security problems such as piracy through cooperation. The navy of the two countries will carry out more strategic communication and cooperation on the safety of maritime transport channels.
Although China and the United States have competition to ensure energy supply, both China and the United States are all energy consuming countries with high external dependence. There is a common interest in the stability of oil prices and the stability of oil demand. The United States and the International Energy Agency (IEA) invite China to join the IEA to participate in the IEA emergency sharing system. But the statute of the IEA stipulates that The country must be a member of the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD), but China does not have the right to join. But IEA has said the organization can consider revising the provisions of the constitution to allow China to join. But IEA is an energy agency dominated by the west, and China is worried that the oil strategic reserve to join the IEA will be too much. In fact, From the point of view of the benefit of the game, the IEA member countries are consistent with China's interests. China's accession to the IEA can further strengthen the ability of IEA to intervene in the world oil market to achieve the stability of oil prices. In the short term, China's accession to the IEA will not necessarily lead to a decline in the price of oil, but can enhance the capacity of IEA to maintain the smooth world oil price. Therefore, China and the United States have the possibility of cooperation in strategic petroleum reserve in IEA.
In a word, the author believes that China's current energy security strategy is not so likely that the conflict between China and the United States is not too much. China's active energy diplomacy efforts, China's influence on the oil producing countries will increase. And with the strengthening of the Chinese Navy, it will lead to the corresponding military forces of the countries of the Northeast Asia. It will threaten regional security and Sino US relations. But in the short term, it is not a challenge to American hegemony, and it will not cause great changes in the world's energy order. There is competition and cooperation between China and the United States in the supply of safe oil. But the two countries war because of the oil problem. The possibility is almost small. Both China and the United States are two countries pursuing their own interests. In addition, both China and the United States have to ensure energy security for national security. Therefore, I believe that China and the United States, on the one hand, will develop their own energy security strategies while avoiding direct conflicts. On the other hand, cooperation can be done to solve the energy security strategy. The threat posed by source security.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F426.2;D822.371.2

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