本文選題：中國崛起 + 東亞格局��； 參考：《現(xiàn)代國際關(guān)系》2017年09期

【摘要】：中國崛起與東亞權(quán)力格局的變動和秩序變遷一直以來是各界關(guān)注的重要議題。中國崛起帶動?xùn)|亞權(quán)力格局的變遷,東亞格局的變遷又促使東亞秩序的變革。三者之間相互作用,相互影響。本文首先討論了中國崛起作為一個學(xué)術(shù)概念的內(nèi)涵和定義,在此基礎(chǔ)上對相關(guān)事實進行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國作為一個體系大國的崛起被夸大,其崛起的進程才剛剛開始,且只是經(jīng)濟的部分崛起。本文對當(dāng)前和未來近20年的東亞權(quán)力格局進行分析和預(yù)測,結(jié)果顯示東亞已經(jīng)浮現(xiàn)出中美兩極格局,且未來20年內(nèi)仍將朝著這一格局繼續(xù)演變。在東亞兩極格局已成現(xiàn)實的情況下,秩序變遷勢在必行。中美是東亞地區(qū)秩序構(gòu)建的關(guān)鍵力量,東亞秩序的未來將直接取決于中美在此問題上的戰(zhàn)略互動,"一快一慢,雙頭領(lǐng)導(dǎo)"是本文提出的東亞秩序變遷的方向和路徑建議。
[Abstract]:The rise of China and the change of power structure and order in East Asia have always been the important issues concerned by all walks of life. The rise of China drives the change of power pattern in East Asia and the change of East Asian order. The three interact and interact with each other. This paper first discusses the connotation and definition of China's rise as an academic concept. Based on the analysis of relevant facts, it is found that the rise of China as a systemic power has been exaggerated, and the process of its rise has just begun. And only part of the economic rise. This paper analyzes and forecasts the power pattern in East Asia at present and in the next 20 years. The results show that the bipolar pattern of China and the United States has emerged in East Asia and will continue to evolve in the next 20 years. In East Asia, the bipolar pattern has become a reality, the change of order is imperative. China and the United States are the key forces in the construction of order in East Asia, and the future of the order in East Asia will depend directly on the strategic interaction between China and the United States on this issue. "one quick, one slow, two heads of leadership" is the direction and path of the change of East Asian order put forward in this paper.
【作者單位】： 南開大學(xué)周恩來政府管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社科基金重大項目資助,項目編號:13&ZD049
【分類號】：D822.331

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