本文選題：中國威脅論 + 中國崩潰論��； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2011年博士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速增長,引起了世界的關(guān)注。特別是根據(jù)世界銀行公布的數(shù)字,到2010年,中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量已經(jīng)由1978年的世界第29位上升到第2位,中國的崛起似乎已經(jīng)成為事實(shí)。 但是,圍繞著中國崛起的問題,國際上一直存在著兩種不同的觀點(diǎn),即“中國威脅論”和“中國崩潰論”。前者認(rèn)為,中國的崛起必然打破現(xiàn)有的世界格局,例如必然對美國的霸權(quán)形成挑戰(zhàn),從而打破現(xiàn)有的世界秩序。其主要依據(jù)是,近代國際社會(huì)各個(gè)大國崛起都是如此�！爸袊罎⒄摗闭哒J(rèn)為,中國的迅速發(fā)展只是一個(gè)恢復(fù)性發(fā)展,且主要是靠增加投入而不是靠提高效率,.因此,中國的發(fā)展不可能持久。特別是,中國的迅速發(fā)展必然激發(fā)各種社會(huì)矛盾,這些矛盾最終將導(dǎo)致中國迅速崩潰。 本文在對上述兩種觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行分析批判的基礎(chǔ)上提出了自己的觀點(diǎn),即中國完全可能和平崛起。這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)不是本文首創(chuàng),但要想使它深入人心,使它變成全黨、全國人民的自覺信念和自覺行動(dòng),就必須對“中國威脅論”和“中國崩潰論”進(jìn)行深入的分析批判。畢竟,這兩種觀點(diǎn)目前在國內(nèi)外均有一定的市場和影響力。 本文的具體結(jié)構(gòu)是,除導(dǎo)言和結(jié)語外,共分為五章。其中導(dǎo)言論證了選題的意義,分析介紹了國內(nèi)外本選題的研究現(xiàn)狀及本文的基本結(jié)構(gòu)和創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。 第一章歷史與現(xiàn)實(shí)：中國威脅論的由來和演變 所謂“中國威脅論”,主要是在西方流行的一種宣傳論調(diào),認(rèn)為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展、中國綜合國力的增強(qiáng)、中國文明及其不同于西方的發(fā)展模式將在不遠(yuǎn)的將來對以西方文明為基礎(chǔ)的歐美國家、現(xiàn)存的國際社會(huì)、國際體系和國際秩序構(gòu)成了嚴(yán)重的威脅。 那么,所謂“中國威脅論”在內(nèi)容上、理論上都有哪些依據(jù)呢?一般認(rèn)為,“中國威脅論”主要有三大方面的內(nèi)容,即“中國經(jīng)濟(jì)威脅論”、“中國軍事威脅論”和“中國文明威脅論”；其依據(jù)是多方面的,主要是對中國現(xiàn)存的政治制度、意識(shí)形態(tài)和文化的偏見和敵視,還有西方國際關(guān)系理論中的一些理論學(xué)說和相關(guān)假說。歸根到底,“牛國威脅論”反映了西方中心主義視角下對其他文明、國家、文化和發(fā)展模式的種種偏見,在某種程度上反映了歷史上侵略過中國的西方,面對當(dāng)今中國崛起的恐懼和憂慮心態(tài)。 本文在這一章中運(yùn)用不同的視角詳細(xì)分析“中國威脅論”：首先是從最有迷惑性的西方國際關(guān)系理論的角度分析批駁,重點(diǎn)是現(xiàn)實(shí)主義理論部分,.包括霍布斯主義、權(quán)力轉(zhuǎn)移理論和進(jìn)攻性現(xiàn)實(shí)主義理論；二是運(yùn)用“民主和平論”視角分析“中國威脅論”。這些理論視角不僅僅給“中國威脅論”賦予了各種各樣的“理論基礎(chǔ)”,而且使得“中國威脅論”更具有欺騙性。從而使得其在西方社會(huì)、尤其是學(xué)界和政界有了廣泛的傳播空間和社會(huì)基礎(chǔ)。 第二章對中國威脅論的批判 首先,在所有的西方國際關(guān)系理論中,現(xiàn)實(shí)主義理論是產(chǎn)生“中國威脅論”的主要理論來源和基礎(chǔ),這種理論最傾向于將中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速發(fā)展和綜合國力的增強(qiáng)解讀為現(xiàn)實(shí)性的“威脅”,所以最容易得出中國威脅論的悲觀結(jié)論�，F(xiàn)實(shí)主義理論主要是把美國的崛起作為一個(gè)參照系,把中國的情形與當(dāng)年美國的情形作類比,有以小人之心推君子之腹的嫌疑,最根本的是中國崛起的外部和內(nèi)部條件與美國當(dāng)年崛起時(shí)都大不相同。因此,現(xiàn)實(shí)主義理論不能成為“中國威脅論”的根據(jù)。本章以進(jìn)攻性現(xiàn)實(shí)主義理論為例,從西方國際關(guān)系理論的角度,對其關(guān)于“中國威脅論”的主要論點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了分析和批判。此外,即使拋開國際關(guān)系理論方面,僅僅從過去中國經(jīng)歷的歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)以及當(dāng)前中國面臨的種種問題等現(xiàn)實(shí)角度來觀察,我們也可以清楚地發(fā)現(xiàn),所謂“中國威脅論”也是站不住腳的。 其次,從軍事角度看,中國與美國的軍事實(shí)力差距巨大,不可能主動(dòng)挑戰(zhàn)美國。中國縮小與美國為代表的國防現(xiàn)代化水平的目標(biāo)非常明確：捍衛(wèi)領(lǐng)土和國家主權(quán)完整。從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度看,到目前為止,中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平,不構(gòu)成對世界上任何經(jīng)濟(jì)體的威脅。恰恰相反,這次世界金融危機(jī)后的表現(xiàn)證明,中國實(shí)際上擔(dān)當(dāng)了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)。從文明角度看,中華文明與世界其他文明一樣都是世界文化資源的重要一部分,共同促進(jìn)了世界的發(fā)展。 通過分析,我們可以清楚發(fā)現(xiàn),無論是以“中國軍事威脅論”、“中國經(jīng)濟(jì)威脅論”還是“中國文明威脅論”為代表的“中國威脅論”,事實(shí)上都更多的是一種推斷,種猜測,一種假說,并沒有歷史的必然性,更不具有邏輯的必然性。 第三章中國和平崛起：國際政治背景下的戰(zhàn)略分析 從清代的閉關(guān)鎖國到目前世界上數(shù)一數(shù)二的貿(mào)易大國,這個(gè)事實(shí)說明中國的發(fā)展不可能走傳統(tǒng)的老路。經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化事實(shí)上已經(jīng)使中國成為世界的一部分。中國的發(fā)展必須在世界發(fā)展的過程中實(shí)現(xiàn)。當(dāng)今的時(shí)代主題也決定了“和平崛起”既是中國發(fā)展道路的主動(dòng)戰(zhàn)略,也是當(dāng)前國際政治背景下的必然選擇。 從當(dāng)今國際政治背景出發(fā),我們可以清楚的發(fā)現(xiàn),中國和平崛起的道路仍然面臨兩大方面的影響。其一是中國崛起的新時(shí)代背景；其二是地緣政治與中國崛起的區(qū)域障礙。前者是中國和平崛起的積極因素,后者則在某種程度上對中國和平崛起的過程構(gòu)成了某種制約。 具體來說,對于中國崛起的新時(shí)代背景而言,如果說后冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)代中國的崛起和歷史上西方強(qiáng)國的崛起模式有什么不同的話,其典型的一個(gè)特征是中國的崛起過程的和平性與中國發(fā)展道路的可持續(xù)性,即中國“和平崛起道路”的實(shí)現(xiàn)。其原因主要是三個(gè)方面：全球化深化了當(dāng)今“和平與發(fā)展”的時(shí)代主題；美國的制度性霸權(quán)給新興的崛起國利用積極參與國際機(jī)制、實(shí)現(xiàn)和平崛起提供了可能；“新型工業(yè)化和信息化”的發(fā)展不僅為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)發(fā)展提供了保障,也是中國和平崛起的歷史機(jī)遇。 從地緣政治上講,中國崛起有三個(gè)不利因素：與周邊國家的領(lǐng)土爭端問題；海權(quán)爭端以及臺(tái)灣問題。本文認(rèn)為,首先,堅(jiān)持目前的“擱置爭議、共同開發(fā)”政策將有利于減少中國和平崛起過程的阻力；其次,發(fā)展海權(quán)有利于中國自身的發(fā)展,同時(shí)也有利于維護(hù)世界自由市場經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易體系,這和美國的利益是一致的。另外,中美兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易利益是相互滲透共存、共生共榮的,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)利益受損也意味著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)利益受損,所以美國沒有什么理由遏制中國擁有正當(dāng)海權(quán),并且這也完全不會(huì)損害中國和平崛起的國際形象。最后,臺(tái)灣問題的解決將決定中國崛起的成敗,涉及中國崛起全局的戰(zhàn)略問題。要圓滿解決臺(tái)灣問題,首先要立足自身的發(fā)展,提高綜合國力,其次是加強(qiáng)和臺(tái)灣的交流與合作,只要做到這兩點(diǎn),臺(tái)灣早晚會(huì)回到祖國的懷抱。 第四章中國崩潰論和當(dāng)前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)面臨的矛盾和問題 中國崩潰論是西方國家一些人士針對中國在發(fā)展的過程中所出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治、社會(huì)等矛盾和問題,質(zhì)疑中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的持續(xù)性,并預(yù)言中國將在數(shù)年內(nèi)走向崩潰的一種論調(diào)。在本質(zhì)上,它和中國威脅論一樣,都是對中國現(xiàn)狀及未來發(fā)展的錯(cuò)誤判斷和預(yù)言,是對中國和平崛起而產(chǎn)生的一種極不適應(yīng)的反應(yīng),從某種程度來說,它也是在西方國家某種政治需要的情況下,而對中國進(jìn)行的一種別有用心的攻擊。 中國崩潰論產(chǎn)生的根源有多種：中國威脅論的破產(chǎn),西方中心主義的影響,冷戰(zhàn)思維的作祟,以及政治上歪曲中國發(fā)展的需要是其產(chǎn)生的主要根源。 另一方面,中國在經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的過程中確實(shí)存在著諸多的矛盾和問題,這些矛盾和問題已經(jīng)對中國的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生了重大的阻礙作用。這些矛盾和問題主要分為兩大類,一類是結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾,主要包括：政府與市場的矛盾；消費(fèi)、投資、出口的矛盾；粗放型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與資源、環(huán)境的矛盾；城市與農(nóng)村二元制結(jié)構(gòu)矛盾；另一類是體制性矛盾,主要包括：腐敗和法治的缺失。在結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾和體制性問題影響下,民生問題嚴(yán)重,如住房,教育,醫(yī)療等已經(jīng)直接成為影響老百姓生活的重大問題之一。 第五章對中國崩潰論的批判 中國崩潰論錯(cuò)誤的根本原因在于完全忽視中國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)巨大發(fā)展的現(xiàn)實(shí),而是專注于經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展中的一些矛盾和問題,并對矛盾和問題進(jìn)行夸大,以此來判斷中國的基本國情,并由此對中國的未來進(jìn)行錯(cuò)誤預(yù)測,顯然這種以偏概全,以點(diǎn)概面的方法,完全顛倒了對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的正確認(rèn)識(shí)。它的本質(zhì)與中國威脅論一樣,是惡化中國的國際環(huán)境,延緩中國的發(fā)展,遏制中國的崛起。 當(dāng)然,中國崩潰論者所提到的一些矛盾和問題雖然客觀地存在,但是很多問題都是在中國發(fā)展的過程中產(chǎn)生的,、是在現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程當(dāng)中不可避免地產(chǎn)生的。我們應(yīng)該辯證地看待中國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)中的若干問題,應(yīng)該從長遠(yuǎn)的角度和全局的視角來看待中國的崛起。。當(dāng)代中國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)產(chǎn)生的矛盾和問題很多都具有階段性的特點(diǎn),是中國崛起的過程中所不可避免的,我們應(yīng)該用發(fā)展的眼光來看待這些問題,在發(fā)展的過程中解決這些問題。 中國改革開放以來三十多年發(fā)展的巨大成就已經(jīng)在事實(shí)上宣告了中國崩潰論的失敗。雖然存在著若干的矛盾和問題,然而中國的改革開放事業(yè)和現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)進(jìn)程已經(jīng)取得了巨大的成就。：如今的中國已經(jīng)擁有了解決這些問題的物質(zhì)和體制基礎(chǔ),其中物質(zhì)性基礎(chǔ)包括：巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模、人口與市場和科技創(chuàng)新。體制性基礎(chǔ)包括：社會(huì)主義市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體制的建立和完善、集權(quán)體制下的政治穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。而且中國崛起擁有著巨大的優(yōu)勢：高資本形成率,教育和豐富的人力資本及技術(shù)創(chuàng)新力量,所有這些都是中國崛起的動(dòng)力和源泉。 總的來說,中國存在的若干問題在目前階段已經(jīng)擁有了解決的必要條件：中國市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體制的建設(shè)和完善將推動(dòng)中國政治體制的改革,轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式已經(jīng)刻不容緩,巨大的財(cái)力將是解決民生問題的基礎(chǔ)。 結(jié)語 時(shí)至今日,中國已經(jīng)摸索到了一條適合中國國情的漸進(jìn)式改革之路,這條道路已經(jīng)在過去三十多年里取得了成功：事實(shí)證明,中國只要按照三十年前確定的漸進(jìn)式改革之路,一步一個(gè)腳印,不動(dòng)搖,不懈怠,不折騰,堅(jiān)定不移地走自己的路,就一定能夠破除“中國崩潰論”的謠言,順利實(shí)現(xiàn)中國的和平崛起。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the rapid growth of China's economy has aroused the attention of the world. In particular, according to the figures published by the world bank, China's economic total has risen from twenty-ninth in 1978 to second in 2010, and the rise of China seems to have become a fact.
However, around the rise of China, there have been two different views in the world, namely, the "China Threat Theory" and "China's collapse theory". The former believes that the rise of China will inevitably break the existing world pattern, such as the inevitable challenge to the hegemony of the United States and break the existing world order. Its main basis is modern times. This is the case with the rise of every big country in the international community. "China's collapse theory" believes that China's rapid development is only a restorative development, and mainly depends on increasing investment rather than improving efficiency. Therefore, China's development cannot be sustained. In particular, the rapid development of China will inevitably stimulate various social contradictions, and these contradictions will eventually come to the end. It led to a rapid collapse of China.
On the basis of the analysis and criticism of the above two views, this paper puts forward his own point of view, that is, China is completely likely to rise peacefully. This view is not the first creation of this article. But if it is to make it deep in the people's mind and make it a whole party, the National People's conscious belief and conscious action must be on the "China Threat Theory" and "China's collapse theory". After in-depth analysis and criticism, after all, these two views have a certain market and influence both at home and abroad.
The concrete structure of this article is divided into five chapters except the introduction and conclusion. The introduction demonstrates the significance of the topic, analyzes the research status of this topic at home and abroad, and the basic structure and innovation point of this article.
Chapter one: history and reality: the origin and evolution of China's threat theory
The so-called "China Threat Theory" is mainly a popular publicity argument in the West that the rapid development of China's economy, the strengthening of China's comprehensive national strength, and the development model of Chinese civilization and its different from the West will be in the near future for the European and American countries based on Western civilization, the existing international society, the international system and the international order. A serious threat was posed.
So, what is the theoretical basis for the content of the "China Threat Theory"? It is generally believed that the "Chinese threat theory" has three main aspects, namely, the "China Economic Threat Theory", "the Chinese military threat theory" and "the Chinese civilization threat theory", which are based on many aspects, mainly to the existing political system in China, The prejudice and hostility of ideology and culture, and some theories and hypotheses in the western theory of international relations. In the final analysis, the "bull state threat theory" reflects the prejudice against other civilizations, States, cultures and development patterns from the perspective of western centralism, and to some extent reflects the invasion of China in the west of history. Fang, facing the fear and anxiety mentality of the rise of China today.
In this chapter, we use different perspectives to analyze the "China Threat Theory" in detail: first, it analyzes the criticism from the most puzzled western theory of international relations, focusing on the theory of realism, including the Hobbes doctrine, the theory of power transfer and the theory of offensive realism, and the two is the use of "Democratic Peace Theory". The angle analysis of the "Chinese threat theory". These theoretical perspectives not only give a variety of "theoretical foundations" to the "China Threat Theory", but also make the "Chinese threat theory" more deceptive, thus making it widely spread and social in the western society, especially in the academic and political circles.
The second chapter on the criticism of China's threat theory
First, in all western theories of international relations, realism is the main theoretical source and foundation for the emergence of "China's threat theory". This theory is most inclined to interpret the rapid development of China's economy and the enhancement of the comprehensive national strength as a realistic "threat", so it is the most easy to draw the pessimistic conclusion of the Chinese threat theory. The theory of righteousness mainly regards the rise of the United States as a frame of reference, and compares the situation in China to the situation in the United States in the same year. There is a suspicion of pushing the belly of the gentleman with the heart of a small man. The most fundamental is that the external and internal conditions of the rise of China are not the same as that of the rise of the United States. This chapter, taking the offensive realism theory as an example, analyzes and criticizes the main arguments about the "China Threat Theory" from the perspective of western international relations theory. In addition, the historical experience of the past China and the various problems facing China are now given out of the theory of international relations. From a real perspective, we can clearly see that the so-called "China Threat Theory" is also untenable.
Secondly, from the military point of view, the military strength gap between China and the United States is huge, and it is impossible to challenge the United States actively. China's goal of reducing the level of national defense modernization represented by the United States is very clear: defending the territorial and national sovereignty. From an economic point of view, the level of China's economic development so far does not constitute any of the world's level. On the contrary, on the contrary, the performance after the world financial crisis proves that China is actually taking on the engine of world economic growth. From the angle of civilization, Chinese civilization, like other civilizations in the world, is an important part of the world's cultural resources, which jointly promotes the development of the world.
Through the analysis, we can clearly find that whether it is "China's military threat theory", "China's economic threat theory" or "Chinese civilization threat theory" as the representative of "China Threat Theory", in fact, more is a kind of inference, kind of speculation, a hypothesis, there is no historical inevitability, more not logical necessity.
The third chapter: China's Peaceful Rise: a strategic analysis in the context of international politics
The fact that the development of China is in fact made China a part of the world in fact has made China a part of the world. The development of China must be achieved in the process of world development. The theme of the present times also determines the "peaceful rise". "Is an active strategy for China's development path, and is also an inevitable choice under the current international political background.
From the current international political background, we can clearly find that the path of China's peaceful rise still faces two aspects. One is the new era background of China's rise, and the other is the regional barriers to the rise of geopolitics and China. The former is the accumulating factor of China's peaceful rise, and the latter is to some extent to China and to China. The process of the rise of peace constituted some kind of restriction.
Specifically, for the background of the new era of China's rise, if there is any difference between the rise of China in the post Cold War era and the rising mode of the history of the Western powers, the typical feature is the peace of China's rising process and the sustainability of China's development road, which is the realization of the "road of peaceful rise" in China. The main reason is three aspects: globalization has deepened the contemporary theme of "peace and development"; American institutional hegemony provides the emerging rising countries with active participation in international mechanisms to achieve peaceful rise, and the development of "new industrialization and information" not only provides a guarantee for the sustained development of China's economy, It is also a historical opportunity for China's peaceful rise.
From the geopolitical point of view, China's rise has three unfavorable factors: territorial disputes with the surrounding countries, the sea power dispute and the Taiwan issue. In the first place, insisting on the current policy of "shelving disputes and co developing" will help to reduce the resistance of China's peaceful rise. Secondly, the development of sea rights is beneficial to China itself. Development is also conducive to maintaining a free market economy and trade system in the world, which is consistent with the interests of the United States. In addition, the economic and trade interests of China and the United States are mutually permeated and coexisting together, and the economic interests of China are impaired, and the United States has no reason to contain China's legitimate sea rights. And this will not damage the international image of China's peaceful rise. Finally, the settlement of the Taiwan issue will determine the success or failure of China's rise and the strategic issue of China's rise to the overall situation. To successfully solve the problem of Taiwan, first of all, we should base itself on the development of its own and improve the comprehensive national strength, the second is to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with Taiwan, as long as this is done. At two points, Taiwan will return to the embrace of the motherland sooner or later.
The fourth chapter is about China's collapse theory and the contradictions and problems faced by China's economic and social sectors.
The theory of China's collapse is an argument that some people in the West have emerged in the course of the development of China, such as economic, political, social, and other contradictions and problems, question the sustainability of China's economic growth, and predict the collapse of China in a few years. In essence, it is the same as the threat theory of China, which is the present situation and future development of China. Misjudgments and predictions are an extremely inappropriate response to China's peaceful rise. To a certain extent, it is also a kind of ulterior attack on China under some political needs of the western countries.
There are many sources of China's collapse theory: the insolvency of China's threat theory, the influence of western centralism, the thought of the cold war, and the need for political distortion of China's development are the main sources of it.
On the other hand, there are many contradictions and problems in the process of China's economic and social development. These contradictions and problems have had a significant hindrance to the development of China. These contradictions and problems are divided into two major categories, one is structural contradiction, including the contradiction between the government and the market, consumption, investment, and export. Contradictions; the contradiction between the extensive economic growth and the resources and the environment; the contradiction between the two yuan structure in the city and the countryside; the other is the institutional contradiction, which mainly includes the lack of corruption and the rule of law. Under the influence of structural and institutional problems, the serious problems of the people's livelihood, such as housing, education and medical treatment, have directly affected the lives of the people. One of the major issues.
The fifth chapter of the critique of China's collapse theory
The fundamental reason for the failure of China's theory of collapse is to completely ignore the reality of the great economic and social development of China, but to concentrate on some contradictions and problems in the economic and social development, and exaggerate the contradictions and problems to judge China's basic national conditions and to make a mistake prediction of the future of China. The method of point probability completely reverses the correct understanding of China's economic society. Its essence, like the Chinese threat theory, is to deteriorate the international environment of China, delay the development of China and curb the rise of China.
Of course, some of the contradictions and problems mentioned by the Chinese collapse theory exist objectively, but many problems are produced in the process of China's development, which inevitably arise in the process of modernization. We should dialectically look at some of the problems in the Chinese economy and society, which should be viewed from a long-term and global perspective. Looking at the rise of China, many of the contradictions and problems in the contemporary Chinese economy and society are characterized by stages, which are inevitable in the process of the rise of China. We should look at these problems with the vision of development and solve these problems in the process of development.
The great achievements of China's more than 30 year development since the reform and opening up have actually declared the failure of China's collapse theory. Although there are some contradictions and problems, China has made great achievements in the process of reform and opening up and the process of modernization. And the foundation of the system, the material base package
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：D820

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

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