本文選題：聯(lián)盟承諾 + 再結盟�。� 參考：《國際政治科學》2017年01期

【摘要】：現(xiàn)有國際關系理論指出,國際聯(lián)盟成員面臨的共同外部威脅程度及其政治體制、意識形態(tài)的一致性,是結盟大國是否履行安全承諾的主要原因�，F(xiàn)有理論沒有充分討論上述兩個基本因素之間的交互作用對結盟大國履行聯(lián)盟承諾的影響。本文提出,結盟大國再結盟的可能性是解釋其是否履行聯(lián)盟承諾的必要條件。本文選擇了現(xiàn)有理論無法完全解釋的經(jīng)驗現(xiàn)象,檢驗了結盟大國再結盟的可能性對其履行聯(lián)盟承諾的影響。本文選擇了1936年法國背棄法蘇同盟承諾和1939年意大利履行德意同盟承諾兩個案例,作為控制變量和理論檢驗的經(jīng)驗基礎。依據(jù)英國、法國、德國和意大利的檔案,本文提出,1936年英法結盟的前景是法國背棄對蘇聯(lián)安全承諾的重要原因;而1939年除德國之外意大利沒有再結盟選項是其履行對德國安全承諾的重要原因。分析結盟大國再結盟的可能性與其是否兌現(xiàn)對聯(lián)盟承諾的關系,有助于權衡當前中俄結盟前景對中國安全戰(zhàn)略的影響。
[Abstract]:The current theory of international relations points out that the degree of common external threats faced by members of the League of Nations and the consistency of political system and ideology are the main reasons for the alliance powers to fulfill their security commitments. The existing theories do not fully discuss the influence of the interaction between the above two basic factors on the alliance commitments of the allied powers. This paper suggests that the possibility of realliance is a necessary condition to explain whether the alliance can be fulfilled. This paper selects the empirical phenomenon which can not be fully explained by the existing theories, and tests the influence of the possibility of the realliance of the allied powers on the fulfilment of the alliance promise. In this paper, two cases of France reneging on the Franco-Soviet Union commitment in 1936 and Italy fulfilling the German-Italian Union commitment in 1939 are selected as the empirical basis for controlling variables and theoretical tests. According to the archives of Britain, France, Germany and Italy, this paper points out that the prospect of Anglo-French alliance in 1936 is an important reason for France to renege on its commitment to the security of the Soviet Union. Italy's failure to realign itself with Germany in 1939 was an important reason for its commitment to German security. An analysis of the relationship between the possibility of a realliance of allied powers and the fulfilment of their commitments to the alliance will help to weigh the impact of the current Sino-Russian alliance prospects on China's security strategy.
【作者單位】： 清華大學國際關系學系;
【分類號】：D81
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本文編號：1922823