本文選題：海上運輸通道 + 安全脆弱性�。� 參考：《世界經濟與政治》2017年11期

【摘要】：中國和全球經濟的發(fā)展對海上運輸通道的依賴程度呈現越來越高的趨勢,對包括海上絲綢之路在內的中國海上運輸通道安全水平的動態(tài)演化機理進行科學分析,以采取針對性較強的措施切實保障海上運輸通道的安全暢通,不僅能對中國經濟發(fā)展起到推動作用,而且也對通道沿線國家及通道使用國家產生積極的影響。但由于海上運輸通道系統具有較強的復雜多變性,且其影響因子具有明顯的動態(tài)特性,對其未來安全狀況的預估必須在全面考慮諸多影響因子的基礎上,采用動態(tài)分析的方法建立分析模型。為此,作者將海上運輸通道安全的諸多影響因子內化于"脆弱性"維度之中,對中國海上運輸通道在自然環(huán)境、社會經濟以及人為因素等三個方面所面臨的風險進行了有效識別,構建了中國海上運輸通道安全脆弱性演化機理分析的系統動力學模型,借助VENSIM計算機仿真平臺對該模型進行了仿真分析和系統靈敏度分析,結果表明:優(yōu)化通道節(jié)點布置、持續(xù)有效打擊海盜活動以及強化水文氣象信息預報工作是降低海上運輸通道安全脆弱性的有效途徑。
[Abstract]:The development of China and the global economy is becoming more and more dependent on the maritime transport channels. The dynamic evolution mechanism of the safety level of China's maritime transport channels, including the Maritime Silk Road, is analyzed scientifically. To take more targeted measures to ensure the safety and flow of maritime transportation channels can not only promote the economic development of China, but also have a positive impact on the countries along the passage and the countries that use the channels. However, due to the strong complex variability of the marine transportation channel system and the obvious dynamic characteristics of its influence factors, the prediction of its future security situation must be based on the overall consideration of many influence factors. The dynamic analysis method is used to establish the analytical model. Therefore, the author internalizes many factors affecting the safety of maritime transport channels in the dimension of "vulnerability". The risks faced by social economy and human factors are effectively identified, and the system dynamics model of the evolution mechanism analysis of the safety vulnerability of China's maritime transport channels is constructed. With the help of VENSIM computer simulation platform, the simulation analysis and system sensitivity analysis of the model are carried out. The results show that the channel node layout is optimized. It is an effective way to reduce the safety vulnerability of maritime transportation channels by continuously and effectively combating piracy and strengthening hydrometeorological information forecasting.
【作者單位】： 大連海事大學公共管理與人文學院;
【基金】：國家社會科學基金項目“基于‘脆弱性—能力’視角的海上運輸通道安全動態(tài)評價研究”(項目批準號:14BZZ070)的資助
【分類號】：D815.5

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