本文選題：中東能源 + 大國(guó)�。� 參考：《上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)》2011年博士論文

【摘要】：自從1993年中國(guó)成為石油凈進(jìn)口國(guó)以來,人們開始越來越多的關(guān)注石油安全問題,同時(shí)也開始關(guān)注“中東”這個(gè)似乎曾經(jīng)離中國(guó)很遙遠(yuǎn)的地區(qū)。提起中東能源,人們首先會(huì)想起的就是石油。這是因?yàn)?在中東地區(qū),幾乎沒有不與石油相聯(lián)系的問題,不是起源于石油,就是歸結(jié)于石油。在半個(gè)多世紀(jì)的時(shí)間里,中東石油以其巨大的儲(chǔ)產(chǎn)量對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)政治和國(guó)際關(guān)系產(chǎn)生過巨大而深遠(yuǎn)的影響,不少西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家以及發(fā)展中國(guó)家都高度依賴中東石油的供應(yīng)。 “9·11”事件以后,隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,國(guó)際能源的供應(yīng)也出現(xiàn)多元化趨勢(shì),中東地區(qū)不再像原來那樣一家獨(dú)大,非洲、中亞里海地區(qū)、俄羅斯均在國(guó)際能源格局中占領(lǐng)新的高地。但是中東仍在世界能源格局中占據(jù)重要地位,因此,中東的能源因素仍是影響各大國(guó)能源戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整的重要變量,也必將對(duì)國(guó)際關(guān)系產(chǎn)生影響。 本文除導(dǎo)論和結(jié)論部分外,共分為六章,分析結(jié)構(gòu)及其框架安排如下: 導(dǎo)論部分主要是對(duì)論文的研究背景、相關(guān)概念界定、國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究情況、理論基礎(chǔ)和文章的寫作思路進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)單的介紹。 第一章主要是介紹中東在國(guó)際能源格局中不變的重要地位,主要是因?yàn)橹袞|的地緣政治重心地位沒有改變,中東油氣的儲(chǔ)產(chǎn)比遠(yuǎn)高于其他地區(qū)和國(guó)家,而且長(zhǎng)期以來,中東一直主宰著全球石油生產(chǎn)和出口貿(mào)易,這一傳統(tǒng)將長(zhǎng)期保持下去,最重要的是中東地區(qū)石油不僅儲(chǔ)量豐富,且開發(fā)條件優(yōu)越。 就本文選取的分析目標(biāo)國(guó)(地區(qū))來看,各國(guó)(地區(qū))都對(duì)各自的能源戰(zhàn)略進(jìn)行了調(diào)整,且目標(biāo)各不相同: 第二章的內(nèi)容是分析基于中東能源因素的影響,美國(guó)的能源戰(zhàn)略的調(diào)整及其目標(biāo)——通過牢牢控制中東的石油,為其建立全球霸權(quán)奠定基礎(chǔ)。 本章通過四個(gè)小節(jié)來梳理美國(guó)政府能源戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整演變過程,可以看到:1973年以前的美國(guó)政府,其石油政策主要在于控制進(jìn)口;而從尼克松到克林頓政府的30多年里,美國(guó)的能源戰(zhàn)略一直是以保證中東石油穩(wěn)定供應(yīng)為目標(biāo);到了小布什政府時(shí)期,由于國(guó)際能源形勢(shì)發(fā)生了變化,其能源戰(zhàn)略也調(diào)整為增加儲(chǔ)備,開拓新資源;奧巴馬上臺(tái)以后,首要任務(wù)就是在中東地區(qū)修復(fù)美國(guó)形象、確保美國(guó)石油供給,同時(shí)推行“新能源計(jì)劃”。 第三章分析歐盟。歐盟的中東能源戰(zhàn)略的目標(biāo)也很明確,就是為了保證其成員國(guó)能源的供應(yīng),在此基礎(chǔ)上,能夠保持其在國(guó)際事務(wù)中的獨(dú)立性。目前由27國(guó)組成的歐盟是世界上最大的能源消費(fèi)體和第二大能源進(jìn)口方,是世界上最大的單一能源市場(chǎng)。中東石油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)歐盟經(jīng)濟(jì)形成很大的沖擊,同時(shí),其他大國(guó)對(duì)中東能源的依賴也對(duì)歐盟能源需求形成威脅�；诖�,歐盟《能源憲章條約》于1998年4月16日開始生效�！赌茉磻椪聴l約》被設(shè)計(jì)為歐盟對(duì)外能源戰(zhàn)略和政策的基礎(chǔ),主要內(nèi)容包括保護(hù)和推動(dòng)能源投資、能源自由貿(mào)易、提倡能源運(yùn)輸?shù)墓艿篮途W(wǎng)點(diǎn)的自由化、降低能源使用對(duì)環(huán)境造成的負(fù)面影響,提高能源利用效率、設(shè)立爭(zhēng)端解決機(jī)制。歐盟所采取的具體措施有:第一,建立中東地區(qū)“能源政策新秩序”,穩(wěn)定中東石油供應(yīng);第二,保障來自俄羅斯的能源輸入,與俄羅斯簽署長(zhǎng)期條約和合同,包括能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),給俄羅斯以長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的投資保障,幫助俄羅斯實(shí)行內(nèi)部能源市場(chǎng)調(diào)整和節(jié)能計(jì)劃,并為此提供投資;第三,開拓中亞等新來源,將里海、中亞和非洲的能源作為歐洲能源的儲(chǔ)備。 第四章通過三個(gè)小節(jié)的內(nèi)容來分析俄羅斯的能源戰(zhàn)略的目標(biāo)——復(fù)興大國(guó)地位。在本文討論的幾個(gè)“大國(guó)”中,俄羅斯的油氣資源狀況是最為獨(dú)特的。其他大國(guó)均為石油進(jìn)口大國(guó),對(duì)中東石油資源有著高度的依賴性,而俄羅斯本身即為能源大國(guó)。因此,中東的石油對(duì)俄羅斯有著特殊意義,俄羅斯的能源戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整也有著與其他大國(guó)格外不同的目標(biāo)定位。俄羅斯將能源產(chǎn)業(yè)視為刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)興的重要推動(dòng)力,認(rèn)為制定長(zhǎng)期的能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和安全戰(zhàn)略的意義不僅在于推動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,更重要的是,對(duì)俄羅斯恢復(fù)大國(guó)地位有著決定性的意義。俄羅斯的中東政策也經(jīng)歷了三個(gè)階段,分別是俄羅斯“一邊倒”時(shí)期的中東政策、20世紀(jì)90年代下半期對(duì)中東政策和普京時(shí)期對(duì)中東政策。同西方尤其是美國(guó)對(duì)中東政策的意圖相比較,俄羅斯對(duì)中東政策經(jīng)濟(jì)色彩利益明顯大于政治意圖,俄羅斯考慮更多的是在中東的經(jīng)濟(jì)利益,其根本點(diǎn)在于利用自身的能源優(yōu)勢(shì),逐漸恢復(fù)在中東地區(qū)的影響力,進(jìn)而復(fù)興自己的大國(guó)地位。 眾所周知,日本是世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó),同時(shí)也是一個(gè)能源消費(fèi)大國(guó)和資源極度貧乏的國(guó)家。對(duì)于日本來說,能源安全問題不僅關(guān)系到其整個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,甚至關(guān)系到其國(guó)家的生死存亡。第五章的內(nèi)容是分析日本的能源戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)——謀求國(guó)家生存,在此基礎(chǔ)上謀求大國(guó)地位。相比較其他國(guó)家而言,日本更加倚重中東的能源進(jìn)口,也相應(yīng)的制定了更加完善的對(duì)內(nèi)對(duì)外能源戰(zhàn)略:一、謀求能源結(jié)構(gòu)多樣化,開發(fā)新能源,提高能源使用效率;二、分散石油進(jìn)口來源,謀求能源進(jìn)口多元化;三、重建與中東石油出口國(guó)的合作伙伴關(guān)系。同時(shí),日本也注重發(fā)揮海上優(yōu)勢(shì),確保能源運(yùn)輸安全。 第六章分析中國(guó)的能源戰(zhàn)略。中國(guó)的能源戰(zhàn)略的目標(biāo)也很明確,就是保護(hù)改革開放的經(jīng)濟(jì)成果,保證中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。但是,中國(guó)石油供應(yīng)狀況非常嚴(yán)峻,石油安全不容樂觀,主要是面臨三大挑戰(zhàn):第一、中國(guó)石油對(duì)外依存度過大;第二、中國(guó)石油進(jìn)口空間緊縮;第三、石油運(yùn)輸?shù)拇嗳跣悦黠@,“馬六甲困局”難以破解。在這樣的能源基礎(chǔ)上,中國(guó)把能源戰(zhàn)略的重點(diǎn)放在了中東石油外交上,與沙特、伊朗、伊拉克還有海灣合作組織積極展開合作,確保中國(guó)在中東的能源利益。在這樣的情況下,“中國(guó)石油威脅論”有所抬頭,中國(guó)公平合理參與全球油氣資源的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)受到少數(shù)大國(guó)的誤解。在中東地區(qū),中國(guó)與各大國(guó)之間的關(guān)系也比較微妙,中美之間是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)與合作的關(guān)系;中日之間理性交往,謀求互利共贏;中俄關(guān)系是合作大于競(jìng)爭(zhēng);中歐則是利益共同體。 最后,對(duì)于中國(guó)能源安全戰(zhàn)略有以下幾點(diǎn)思考與建議:第一,要學(xué)會(huì)國(guó)際能源競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的游戲規(guī)則,做到有的放矢;第二、要建立國(guó)家層面的統(tǒng)一的能源管理機(jī)構(gòu),加強(qiáng)能源立法并依法管理;第三、健全能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,使其長(zhǎng)期化、全面化、指標(biāo)化;第四、確定海外能源開發(fā)的戰(zhàn)略重點(diǎn);第五,通過加強(qiáng)國(guó)防建設(shè),尤其是海軍力量的建設(shè),加強(qiáng)與韓國(guó)、日本的合作,并通過對(duì)新加坡、馬來西亞和印度尼西亞的外交努力,來破解我國(guó)石油運(yùn)輸安全的“馬六甲困局”,保衛(wèi)我國(guó)的海外能源利益。
[Abstract]:Since China became a net oil importer in 1993, people began to pay more and more attention to oil safety issues, and began to focus on the "Middle East", a region that seemed very far away from China. In more than half a century, Middle East oil has a huge and far-reaching impact on world economic and political and international relations, and many western developed countries and developing countries are highly dependent on the supply of oil in the Middle East.
After the "9 / 11" incident, with the development of the world economy, the supply of international energy also has a trend of diversification. The Middle East is no longer like the original one, Africa, the Caspian region, Russia all occupy the new highland in the international energy pattern. But the Middle East still occupies an important position in the world energy pattern, so the Middle East is in the Middle East. Energy factor is still an important variable affecting the adjustment of energy strategy of major powers, and will also have an impact on international relations.
In addition to the introduction and conclusion, the paper is divided into six chapters. The analysis structure and its framework are arranged as follows:
The introduction is mainly about the research background of the paper, the definition of related concepts, the related research at home and abroad, the theoretical basis and the writing ideas of the article.
The first chapter mainly introduces the important position of the Middle East in the international energy pattern, mainly because the geopolitical gravity of the Middle East has not changed, the oil and gas production in the Middle East is far higher than that of other regions and countries, and for a long time, the Middle East has dominated global oil production and export trade for a long time. This tradition will be maintained for a long time. Most importantly, oil in the Middle East is not only rich in reserves, but also has superior development conditions.
For the analysis of target countries (regions), countries (regions) have adjusted their respective energy strategies, and their goals are different.
The second chapter is to analyze the impact of the energy factors in the Middle East, the adjustment of the energy strategy in the United States and its goals - by firmly controlling the oil in the Middle East, laying the foundation for its global hegemony.
This chapter combs the evolution process of the US government's energy strategy through four sections. It can be seen that the United States government before 1973, whose oil policy is mainly to control imports, and from Nixon to the Clinton Administration for more than 30 years, the US energy strategy has been aimed at ensuring the stable supply of oil in the Middle East; to the George W. Bush administration. In the period of the government, because of the changes in the international energy situation, its energy strategy was also adjusted to increase reserves and exploit new resources. After Obama came to power, the first task was to repair the image of the United States in the Middle East, to ensure the supply of us oil, and to carry out the "new energy plan".
The third chapter analyzes the EU. The EU's goal of the Middle East energy strategy is also clear, in order to ensure the energy supply of its member countries, and on this basis, to maintain its independence in international affairs. The European Union, which consists of 27 countries, is the world's largest energy consumption body and the second largest energy importer, and is the largest single in the world. At the same time, the Energy Charter Treaty of the EU began to take effect in April 16, 1998. The Energy Charter Treaty was set as the basis for the EU's external energy strategy and policy. The main contents include the protection and promotion of energy investment, the free trade in energy, the liberalization of pipelines and outlets for energy transport, the reduction of the negative impact of energy use on the environment, the improvement of energy efficiency and the establishment of a dispute settlement mechanism. The specific measures adopted by the EU are as follows: first, the establishment of a new energy policy order in the Middle East. To stabilize the supply of oil in the Middle East; second, to safeguard energy input from Russia, to sign long-term treaties and contracts with Russia, including energy infrastructure, to provide long-term and stable investment to Russia, to help Russia implement internal energy market adjustment and energy conservation plans, and to provide investment for this purpose; and third, to exploit new sources such as Central Asia, The Caspian Sea, Central Asia and Africa's energy are used as reserves of European energy.
In the fourth chapter, the target of Russia's energy strategy is analyzed by the content of three sections. In the several "big countries" discussed in this article, Russia's oil and gas resources are the most unique. All the other big countries are oil importers with high dependence on the Middle East oil resources, and Russia itself is The energy industry in the Middle East has a special significance to Russia. Russia's energy strategy adjustment is also particularly different from other powers. Russia regards the energy industry as an important driving force to stimulate the economic revival, and believes that the significance of developing a long-term energy development strategy and security strategy is not only to promote the country's energy development. The development of the internal economy, more importantly, is of decisive significance to Russia's restoration of great power status. Russia's Middle East policy has also experienced three stages, namely, Russia's "one-sided" policy in the Middle East, the Middle East Policy in the second half of 1990s and the Middle East policy of Putin, and the west, especially the United States, to the Middle East. In comparison with the intention of the policy, Russia's policy and economic interest in the Middle East is obviously greater than the political intention. Russia considers more of its economic interests in the Middle East. Its fundamental point is to use its own energy advantages to gradually restore its influence in the Middle East and then rejuvenate its own power.
As we all know, Japan is the second largest economic power in the world, and it is also a country of energy consumption and extremely poor resources. For Japan, the problem of energy security is not only related to the economic development of the whole country, but also to the life or death of its country. The content of the fifth chapter is to analyze the energy strategic target of Japan - In comparison with other countries, Japan is more dependent on energy imports in the Middle East, and has formulated a more perfect strategy for internal and external energy: first, to diversify the energy structure, develop new energy and improve the efficiency of energy use; two, to diversify the source of oil import and to seek energy sources. Diversification; three, rebuilding partnership with Middle East oil exporting countries. At the same time, Japan also pays attention to giving full play to maritime advantages and ensuring energy transport safety.
The sixth chapter analyzes China's energy strategy. The goal of China's energy strategy is also clear, which is to protect the economic results of reform and opening up and ensure the sustainable development of China's economy. However, China's oil supply is very severe and oil security is not optimistic, mainly facing three challenges: first, China's petroleum dependence is too large; Two, China's oil import space is tight; third, the vulnerability of oil transportation is obvious, and the "Malacca dilemma" is difficult to crack. On this basis, China focuses on the energy strategy in the Middle East oil diplomacy, and actively cooperates with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the Gulf Cooperation Organization to ensure China's energy benefits in the Middle East. In this case, the "China oil threat theory" has been raised, and China's fair and rational participation in the competition for global oil and gas resources is misunderstood by a small number of countries. In the Middle East, the relationship between China and the great powers is delicate. China and the United States are the relationship between competition and cooperation; China and Japan are rational exchanges, seeking mutual benefit and win-win results; Russia's cooperation is greater than competition, while China and Europe are interest groups.
Finally, there are several suggestions and suggestions for China's energy security strategy: first, we should learn the rules of the international energy competition and make a definite target. Second, we should establish a unified energy management institution at the national level, strengthen the energy legislation and manage it according to law; third, improve the strategy of energy development, and make it long-term, comprehensive and indefinite. Fourth, to determine the strategic focus of overseas energy development; fifth, through strengthening national defense construction, especially the construction of naval forces, strengthening cooperation with Korea and Japan, and through the diplomatic efforts of Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, to solve the "Malacca dilemma" of China's oil transportation security and protect our country's overseas energy and benefits. Benefit.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：D815.4;F416.2

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