本文選題：威脅均衡理論 + 印度��； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：《印蘇和平友好條約》于1971年8月9日在第三次印巴戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)開始前幾個(gè)月簽署。該條約規(guī)定了印度與蘇聯(lián)相互間的戰(zhàn)略合作。但是該條約的簽署對(duì)印度自獨(dú)立后奉行的不結(jié)盟立場(chǎng)有很大的偏離。印度和巴基斯坦于1947年在南亞地區(qū)建國(guó)。但是,這兩個(gè)國(guó)家長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直屬于一個(gè)國(guó)家。自它們獨(dú)立以來(lái),印度和巴基斯坦關(guān)系一直都不穩(wěn)定。由于克什米爾問(wèn)題,第一次印巴戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)發(fā)生在1947年。盡管聯(lián)合國(guó)確實(shí)參與調(diào)停,宣布�；�,但是沒有化解兩國(guó)的敵意,邊界仍時(shí)不時(shí)發(fā)生沖突。戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)期間,兩國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層力圖改善關(guān)系。然而,這些嘗試都不是很成功,第二次印巴戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)于1965年發(fā)生。爭(zhēng)端的原因仍是克什米爾。當(dāng)時(shí),蘇聯(lián)是在塔什干進(jìn)行的談判的調(diào)解人。但這次和平會(huì)議并沒有化解敵意,兩國(guó)關(guān)系變得更加糟糕。1969年尼克松任職后,南亞地區(qū)的局勢(shì)發(fā)生了變化。他的外交政策目標(biāo)之一是與中國(guó)關(guān)系的正�；�。尼克松和基辛格希望中國(guó)的密切伙伴巴基斯坦,在這一過(guò)程中充當(dāng)中間人。早在20世紀(jì)70年代初,美國(guó)和中國(guó)之間通過(guò)巴基斯坦的第一次秘密聯(lián)系已經(jīng)開始。該區(qū)的另一個(gè)大危機(jī)發(fā)生在1971年,當(dāng)時(shí)巴基斯坦(東部和西部)兩地區(qū)之間的軍事沖突已經(jīng)開始了。這場(chǎng)沖突導(dǎo)致大量難民流向印度。難民危機(jī)給新德里帶來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì),社會(huì)和安全問(wèn)題。印度的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層也意識(shí)到只有印度進(jìn)行干預(yù),沖突和難民危機(jī)才能解決。但同時(shí),他們知道這很可能招致美國(guó)或中國(guó)的外部干涉。在印巴發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的情況下,美國(guó)或中國(guó)支持巴基斯坦從而進(jìn)行干涉的可能性被印度領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層視為是對(duì)其國(guó)家利益的威脅。因此,印度急切地想要簽訂與蘇聯(lián)的《印蘇和平友好合作條約》,因?yàn)橛《鹊念I(lǐng)導(dǎo)層意識(shí)到了蘇聯(lián)可以對(duì)付中國(guó)和美國(guó)這一事實(shí)。本文的主要研究問(wèn)題是:為什么在1971年的東巴基斯坦危機(jī)期間,印度簽署了和平友好合作條約,改變了其外交政策?筆者沒有找到一篇根據(jù)均衡威脅理論來(lái)解釋該問(wèn)題的論文或研究。有許多論文強(qiáng)調(diào)了該條約在1971年與巴基斯坦戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)期間對(duì)印度的重要性。其他論文是對(duì)導(dǎo)致1971年南亞地區(qū)危機(jī)的原因的解讀。但是,沒有一篇文章關(guān)注這個(gè)特定的問(wèn)題。論文中的假設(shè)基于印度領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層感知到的美利堅(jiān)合眾國(guó)和中華人民共和國(guó)在可能爆發(fā)的印度和巴基斯坦的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中通過(guò)潛在的(軍事或任何其他方式)參戰(zhàn)而顯現(xiàn)的可能的威脅。這些行動(dòng)將成為一種支援,使得巴基斯坦實(shí)現(xiàn)其在東部的軍事目標(biāo)。很明顯,這樣看來(lái),印度領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層預(yù)料到了對(duì)他們國(guó)家利益的傷害,意識(shí)到在該地區(qū)對(duì)印度軍事目標(biāo)的直接威脅,要求即時(shí)反應(yīng)。在與蘇聯(lián)簽訂該條約的情況下,印度能夠很容易地約束其他各方(亦即中國(guó)和美國(guó))大量部署部隊(duì),不允許它們進(jìn)行可能會(huì)展開的目的為削弱印度軍事或其他實(shí)力的任何軍事行動(dòng),至少不直接進(jìn)行。因此,印度在1971年確實(shí)簽署了與蘇聯(lián)的條約,因?yàn)閷?duì)于中國(guó)或美國(guó)為支持巴基斯坦而潛在參與印巴戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的威脅的感知。該論文共分為五章,第一章是簡(jiǎn)介。介紹了自獨(dú)立以來(lái),印巴關(guān)系的短暫歷史,簡(jiǎn)要介紹了1971年孟加拉國(guó)解放戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)初期該地區(qū)的情況。理論方法也在第一章中闡釋。威脅均衡理論首次由斯蒂芬·沃爾特(stephenm.walt)在題為“聯(lián)盟形成與世界權(quán)力平衡”(1985)的文章中首次提出,后來(lái)在他的書“聯(lián)盟起源”(1987年)中有所闡述。威脅均衡理論解釋了國(guó)家間聯(lián)盟。根據(jù)這個(gè)理論,國(guó)家結(jié)成聯(lián)盟共同應(yīng)對(duì)威脅,而不是單靠個(gè)別國(guó)家的力量。按照沃爾特的說(shuō)法,威脅均衡理論即是當(dāng)威脅不平衡時(shí)(即當(dāng)一個(gè)國(guó)家或聯(lián)盟似乎特別危險(xiǎn)時(shí)),各國(guó)將形成聯(lián)盟或增加其內(nèi)部實(shí)力,以減少其脆弱性。第二章力圖描述印巴關(guān)系的歷史,并進(jìn)一步闡述兩國(guó)之間敵對(duì)的原因。本章的主要目的之一是展現(xiàn)自1947年獨(dú)立以來(lái)印巴關(guān)系的發(fā)展。這將有助于了解哪些因素影響了雙邊關(guān)系的動(dòng)態(tài),并導(dǎo)致他們?cè)?971年發(fā)生沖突。第三章主要側(cè)重于沖突中的主要參與者之間的雙邊關(guān)系,并提出影響該地區(qū)在該時(shí)期形成的聯(lián)盟制度的一系列原因。它描述了1971年沖突的主要參與者之間的關(guān)系的性質(zhì),展現(xiàn)了其發(fā)展,提出了影響國(guó)家加入某個(gè)聯(lián)盟的情勢(shì),并解釋了為什么某個(gè)聯(lián)盟有效或無(wú)效。第四章解釋導(dǎo)致孟加拉國(guó)解放戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的原因。本章包含本文的重點(diǎn),筆者解釋了使得印度簽署“1971年條約”的原因。它還將闡述“威脅均衡理論”與使印度在1971年和蘇聯(lián)簽署“印蘇和平友好合作條約”的原因之間的關(guān)系。孟加拉解放戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)爆發(fā)后,上達(dá)百萬(wàn)的從巴基斯坦東部到印度的難民給印度帶來(lái)了經(jīng)濟(jì),社會(huì)和安全問(wèn)題,英迪拉甘地意識(shí)到,只有印度對(duì)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)進(jìn)行干預(yù)才能阻止危機(jī),使所有難民返回巴基斯坦。同時(shí),甘地意識(shí)到印度對(duì)孟加拉解放戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的干預(yù)可能會(huì)招致美國(guó)和中國(guó)因支持巴基斯坦而參戰(zhàn)的威脅。這將可能導(dǎo)致印度戰(zhàn)敗。因此,印度必須尋找一個(gè)可以消除他方外部參戰(zhàn)威脅的盟友。那時(shí),只有蘇聯(lián),對(duì)來(lái)自美國(guó)和中國(guó)參與可能的印度-巴基斯坦沖突的威脅的認(rèn)知迫使印度在1971年簽署了與蘇聯(lián)的和平友好合作條約。最后,第五章得出結(jié)論,印度由于南亞地區(qū)不斷發(fā)酵的情勢(shì)(巴基斯坦東部的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng),難民危機(jī)和潛在的外部力量參戰(zhàn)的威脅)與蘇聯(lián)簽訂了條約。該行為主要的原因是美國(guó)和中國(guó)為支持巴基斯坦而參與印巴戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的威脅。
[Abstract]:The Treaty of peace and friendship between the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union was signed a few months before the third India Pakistan war in August 9, 1971. The treaty stipulates the strategic cooperation between India and the Soviet Union. But the signing of the treaty has greatly deviated from the non aligned position that India has pursued since its independence. India and Pakistan were founded in 1947 in South Asia. The two countries have long been a country. Since their independence, relations between India and Pakistan have been unstable. The first India Pakistan war took place in 1947 because of the Kashmir issue. Although the United Nations did participate in the mediation and declared a ceasefire, it did not dissolve the hostility between the two countries, and the border continued to conflict. During the struggle, the leaders of the two countries tried to improve their relations. However, these attempts were not very successful. The second India Pakistan war took place in 1965. The cause of the dispute was Kashmir. The Soviet Union was the mediator of the negotiations in Tashkent. But the peace conference did not resolve the hostility, and the relationship between the two countries became worse in.1969 Nick. After the tenure, the situation in the South Asian region has changed. One of his foreign policy objectives is the normalization of relations with China. Nixon and Kissinger want China's close partner Pakistan to act as a middleman in this process. Early in the early 1970s, the first secret connection between the United States and China was through Pakistan. Another major crisis in the area began in 1971, when the military conflict between the two regions of Pakistan (Eastern and Western) had begun. The conflict led to a large number of refugees flowing into India. The refugee crisis brought economic, social and security problems to New Delhi. The leadership of India also realized that only India was intervening. And the refugee crisis can be solved. But at the same time, they know it is likely to lead to the external interference of the United States or China. In the case of the war in India, the possibility of us or China's support for Pakistan to intervene is regarded as a threat to its national interests by the India leadership. Therefore, India is eager to sign with the Soviet Union. The India leadership was aware of the fact that the Soviet Union could deal with China and the United States. The main question was why, during the 1971 crisis in East Pakistan, India signed a treaty of peace and friendship and changed its foreign policy, and the author did not find one according to the balance. There are many papers that emphasize the importance of the treaty to India during the 1971 war with Pakistan. Other papers are an interpretation of the causes of the 1971 crisis in South Asia. However, no article is concerned with this particular problem. The hypothesis in this paper is based on the leadership of India. Perceived possible threats to United States of America and People's Republic of China in the potential war of India and Pakistan through potential (military or any other) participation in the war. These actions will be a support to enable Pakistan to achieve its military goals in the East. It is clear that India is in this way. The leadership has foreseen the harm to their national interests, and is aware of the immediate threat to India's military targets in the region, and requires immediate response. In the case of the treaty with the Soviet Union, India can easily restrain a large number of forces from other parties (that is, China and the United States), and do not allow them to carry out their possible purposes. Any military action to weaken the military or other strength of India, at least not directly. Therefore, India did sign the treaty with the Soviet Union in 1971, because of the perception of China or the United States to support the threat of the India Pakistan war in support of Pakistan. The paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is a brief introduction. The brief history of the relationship between India and Pakistan briefly introduces the situation in the early 1971 of the war of liberation in Bangladesh. The theory method is also explained in the first chapter. The theory of threat equilibrium was first proposed by Stephen Walter (stephenm.walt) in the article entitled "alliance formation and world power balance" (1985) for the first time, and later in his book. The origin of the Alliance (1987) is explained. The theory of threat equilibrium explains the alliance between states. According to this theory, the State conforms to a threat rather than a single country. According to Walter, the threat to equilibrium theory is when a threat is imbalanced (that is, when a country or alliance seems particularly dangerous), Countries will form alliances or increase their internal strength to reduce their vulnerability. The second chapter tries to describe the history of India and Pakistan and further expounds the causes of hostility between the two countries. One of the main purposes of this chapter is to show the development of India Pakistan Relations since independence in 1947. This will help to understand which factors affect the movement of bilateral relations. The third chapter mainly focuses on the bilateral relations between the main participants in the conflict and puts forward a series of reasons for the alliance system that affects the region during the period. It describes the nature of the relationship between the main participants in the 1971 conflict, shows its development, and puts forward the influence of the state. The fourth chapter explains the cause of the war of liberation in Bangladesh. This chapter contains the focus of this article. The author explains why India signed the "1971 treaty". It will also explain the "threat balance theory" and the signing of India in 1971 and the Soviet Union. After the outbreak of the Bangladesh liberation war, millions of refugees from Eastern Pakistan to India brought India economic, social and security issues. Indira Gandhi realized that only India's intervention in the war could prevent the crisis and all the refugees returned to baghi. At the same time, Gandhi realized that India's intervention in the war of liberation in Bangladesh could lead to a threat to the war between the United States and China in support of Pakistan. This would lead to a defeat in India. Therefore, India must find an ally that can eliminate the threat of the other's external participation. The recognition of the threat of the India Pakistan conflict forced India to sign the Treaty of peace and friendly cooperation with the Soviet Union in 1971. Finally, the fifth chapter concluded that India signed a treaty with the Soviet Union because of the continuous fermenting situation in South Asia (the eastern Pakistan war, the refugee crisis and the threat of potential external forces participating in the war). The main reason is that the United States and China are involved in the threat of India Pakistan war in support of Pakistan.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：D835.1;D835.3

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