本文選題：“一帶一路” + 南亞��； 參考：《南亞研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：多年來,南亞地緣政治演繹中所呈現(xiàn)的"一家獨(dú)大"的力量格局、醒目的區(qū)域裂痕、積重難返的安全問題、相對低效的地區(qū)機(jī)制,以及錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的大國捭闔博弈局面等基本特征,總體上在延續(xù)發(fā)展,顯示出歷史的慣性;迄今,南亞地緣政治格局并未發(fā)生質(zhì)變。不過,近期地區(qū)形勢發(fā)展中的確有一些值得引起重視的新動向。首先,地區(qū)權(quán)力結(jié)構(gòu)不對稱性加劇,"印度中心"特征趨于強(qiáng)化,而巴基斯坦的南亞戰(zhàn)略處境略趨于不利;其次,地區(qū)安全形勢中三大痼疾持續(xù)發(fā)酵、兩種安全互為交織,尤其印巴相互威懾的烈度呈現(xiàn)上升勢頭,而區(qū)域內(nèi)外戰(zhàn)略互動中帶有對抗性博弈的內(nèi)容趨于增多;此外,地區(qū)國家同域外大國的戰(zhàn)略關(guān)系有不同發(fā)展演變,尤其是印美靠近而中印關(guān)系下滑所塑造出的中美印戰(zhàn)略三角扁平化趨勢,值得中國警惕。未來中國的南亞政策,需要尊重現(xiàn)實(shí),不可抱"中印大同"的天真幻想,也不可持"合小攻大"的進(jìn)攻性現(xiàn)實(shí)主義立場,而應(yīng)該選擇"合小穩(wěn)大"的務(wù)實(shí)戰(zhàn)略取向。
[Abstract]:Over the years, the "one family alone" power pattern presented in the geopolitical interpretation of South Asia, the striking regional rift, the long-term accumulation of security problems that are not easy to solve, and the relatively inefficient regional mechanism, As well as the complicated situation of great powers maneuvering game and other basic characteristics, the overall continuation of development, showing the inertia of history; so far, the geopolitical pattern in South Asia has not changed qualitatively. However, recent regional developments do have some new trends that deserve attention. First, the asymmetry of the regional power structure intensifies, the characteristic of "India center" tends to strengthen, while the strategic situation in South Asia of Pakistan tends to be slightly disadvantageous; secondly, the three chronic diseases in the regional security situation continue to grow, and the two kinds of security are intertwined. In particular, the intensity of mutual deterrence between India and Pakistan is on the rise, while the content of confrontational game in the strategic interaction within and outside the region tends to increase; in addition, the strategic relations between regional countries and foreign powers have different development and evolution. In particular, the trend of strategic triangulation created by the close relationship between India and India and the decline of Sino-Indian relations are worthy of China's vigilance. In the future, China's South Asia policy needs to respect the reality and should not hold the naive illusion of "China, India and Datong", nor should it hold an offensive realistic position of "joining small and attacking big", but should choose the pragmatic strategic orientation of "combining small, stable and large."
【作者單位】： 云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)印度洋地區(qū)研究中心;
【分類號】：D835

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