本文選題：公眾立場 + 歐盟��； 參考：《歐洲研究》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文依據(jù)"歐洲晴雨表"的民意調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),對2005-2016年歐盟成員國公眾的涉歐認(rèn)知及其促動(dòng)因素進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)考察。數(shù)據(jù)回歸結(jié)果表明,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對公眾的涉歐立場普遍具有較為顯著的影響效力,但不同人群對歐盟政策性輸出的感知程度有差異,其中對歐盟持比較認(rèn)同和比較不認(rèn)同立場者的反應(yīng)性最強(qiáng),持完全認(rèn)同和完全不認(rèn)同立場人群的反應(yīng)性總體上最低,中立者在某些條件下的反應(yīng)性強(qiáng)于完全認(rèn)同和完全不認(rèn)同者群體�？傮w來看,促進(jìn)一體化的經(jīng)濟(jì)績效依然是平抑民粹主義反歐浪潮的有效途徑。因此,歐盟未來主要面臨以下三大問題與挑戰(zhàn):一是聯(lián)盟的決策如何有效避免國家主權(quán)主義與聯(lián)邦主義者的過度干擾;二是如何在比較認(rèn)同與比較不認(rèn)同者之間尋找相對均衡的政策著力點(diǎn);三是如何進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化對中立群體的政策投放。顯然,歐盟的未來仍離不開精英的貢獻(xiàn),但根本上取決于絕大多數(shù)公眾的認(rèn)同與支持。只要聯(lián)盟的政策性輸出更加貼近多數(shù)公眾的需求,英國脫歐及民粹主義反歐政黨的崛起就不會(huì)對聯(lián)盟構(gòu)成解體的威脅。
[Abstract]:Based on the survey data of Eurobarometer, this paper makes a systematic study of the European Union member states' public perception of Europe and its motivating factors from 2005 to 2016.Among them, those who hold relatively or comparatively disapproved positions towards the EU are the most responsive, and those who hold full and totally disapproved positions have the lowest overall responsiveness.The neutrals are more reactive under certain conditions than those who fully identify with or do not agree with each other.Overall, the economic performance of promoting integration is still an effective way to quell the anti-European tide of populism.Therefore, the EU will face the following three major problems and challenges in the future: first, how to effectively avoid the excessive interference of state sovereignty and federalism in the decision-making of the Union;The second is how to find a relatively balanced policy point between the comparative identity and the comparative disapproval, and the third is how to further strengthen the policy investment to the neutral group.Clearly, the future of the EU still depends on the contribution of the elite, but fundamentally depends on the approval and support of the vast majority of the public.The rise of Brexit and populist anti-European parties will not pose a threat to the union as long as its policy output is closer to the needs of the majority of the public.
【作者單位】： 中國政法大學(xué)政治與公共管理學(xué)院國際政治系;
【基金】：國家社科基金一般項(xiàng)目“西方馬克思主義論域中的歐洲一體化研究”(批準(zhǔn)號:12BGJ021)的相關(guān)研究成果
【分類號】：D814.1

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