【摘要】：從災害的影響來看,社區(qū)是承擔災害風險的主體,以社區(qū)為中心的災害管理模式日益獲得世界各國的重視。社區(qū)風險評估是災害管理的第一步。 本研究通過層次分析法厘清上海城市社區(qū)風險評估指標體系的層次結構和權重,通過建立清晰易填的指標體系進行脆弱性評估,又通過運用模糊綜合評價法進行致災因子識別,再綜合脆弱性評估和致災因子識別獲得綜合風險度評價。并將該風險評估體系運用到上海24個不同類型的城市社區(qū),其實用性和有效性得到初步檢驗。 該評估體系的確立,在兩方面有所突破和創(chuàng)新。一是創(chuàng)造性地引入了模糊綜合評價的方法,在城市社區(qū)這樣一個小尺度下,對自然災害、事故災害、公共衛(wèi)生事件和社會安全事件這四類突發(fā)公共事件的評價建立了一個統(tǒng)一的標準。二是綜合脆弱性評估和致災因子的作用,通過權重的調節(jié)來反映各個指標在最終綜合評價中的貢獻度,形成綜合風險度。
[Abstract]:From the point of view of the influence of disasters, the community is the main body to bear the disaster risk, and the community-centered disaster management model has been paid more and more attention by all countries in the world. Community risk assessment is the first step in disaster management. In this study, the hierarchical structure and weight of Shanghai urban community risk assessment index system are clarified by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the vulnerability assessment is carried out by establishing a clear and easy to fill index system, and the disaster factors are identified by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Comprehensive risk assessment was obtained by comprehensive vulnerability assessment and disaster factor identification. The risk assessment system is applied to 24 different types of urban communities in Shanghai, and its practicability and effectiveness have been preliminarily tested. The establishment of the evaluation system has made breakthroughs and innovations in two aspects. First, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation has been creatively introduced to deal with natural disasters and accident disasters on such a small scale as urban communities. The evaluation of four kinds of public events, public health events and social security incidents, establishes a unified standard. The second is the function of comprehensive vulnerability assessment and disaster-causing factors, which reflects the contribution of each index in the final comprehensive evaluation through the adjustment of weight, and forms the comprehensive risk degree.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：C912.8;F224

【引證文獻】

相關期刊論文 前2條

1 楊俊;王占岐;金貴;程丙銀;侯現(xiàn)慧;;基于AHP與模糊綜合評價的土地整治項目實施后效益評價[J];長江流域資源與環(huán)境;2013年08期

2 王冠坤;;AHP-模糊綜合評價法在歷史文化街區(qū)公共安全風險評估中的應用——以天津五大道為例[J];天津城市建設學院學報;2012年04期

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本文編號：2490922