【摘要】：[目的/意義]研究網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情演化的多維度模型,從更高視角解讀網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情傳播規(guī)律,豐富和完善網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情傳播理論。[方法/過(guò)程]定量分析網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)中信息增長(zhǎng)率的變化問(wèn)題,構(gòu)建以增長(zhǎng)率和時(shí)間為自變量,信息累計(jì)數(shù)量為因變量的多維函數(shù)模型,并通過(guò)MATLAB仿真研究各個(gè)參數(shù)對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情傳播的影響以及網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情傳播路徑分析,然后通過(guò)"成都女司機(jī)"微博數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證了模型的可行性,更加直觀地詮釋了高維模型研究網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情演化機(jī)理的優(yōu)勢(shì)。[結(jié)論/結(jié)果 ]經(jīng)過(guò)理論建模和實(shí)證分析得出,將logistic模型拓展到高維研究網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情演化機(jī)理是可行的,并且多維度模型很好地解釋了網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情數(shù)據(jù)出現(xiàn)多個(gè)"峰值"現(xiàn)象,而網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)質(zhì)是高維度模型曲線在時(shí)間軸的投影。
[Abstract]:The purpose / significance of this paper is to study the multi-dimensional model of the evolution of network public opinion, to interpret the law of network public opinion from a higher angle of view, and to enrich and perfect the theory of network public opinion communication. [method / process] quantitative analysis of the change of information growth rate in the trend prediction of network public opinion, and construct a multidimensional function model which takes the growth rate and time as independent variables and the cumulative amount of information as dependent variables. And through the MATLAB simulation research each parameter to the network public opinion dissemination influence as well as the network public opinion dissemination path analysis, then through "Chengdu female driver" Weibo data has verified the model feasibility, A more intuitive interpretation of the high-dimensional model of network public opinion evolution mechanism advantages. [conclusion / result] after theoretical modeling and empirical analysis, it is concluded that it is feasible to extend the logistic model to study the evolution mechanism of network public opinion in high dimension, and the multi-dimensional model can explain the phenomenon of "peak value" of network public opinion data. The essence of the statistical data of network public opinion is the projection of the high-dimensional model curve on the time axis.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)人民武裝警察部隊(duì)學(xué)院;天津交通職業(yè)學(xué)院;
【基金】：河北省社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“面向突發(fā)事件的政務(wù)微媒體影響力提升策略研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):HB17XW025)
【分類號(hào)】：C912.63

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