本文選題：失能時間 + 死亡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)��； 參考：《中國人口科學(xué)》2017年06期

【摘要】：文章基于2008~2011年中國老年人健康長壽影響因素調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),通過logit模型研究死亡概率、自理狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移概率的影響因素,并在此基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用自理狀態(tài)生命表估算了不同特征老年人群體的余壽和預(yù)期失能時間。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)65歲老年人的平均余壽約為16.04年,其中預(yù)期完全自理、輕度失能、中度失能、重度失能的時間分別為10.11年、4.42年、0.88年、0.63年;隨著年齡增加,老年人預(yù)期中度、重度失能時間占余壽的比重快速上升;女性老年人的平均余壽比男性老年人長2.47年,但女性老年人的預(yù)期失能時間比男性老年人長2.26年,其中預(yù)期中度、重度失能時間長0.77年。(2)居住在城鎮(zhèn)、有醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)的老年人死亡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)低、平均余壽長,但預(yù)期失能時間特別是中度、重度失能時間較長。(3)在婚、有健康生活習(xí)慣(如經(jīng)常體育鍛煉、不吸煙、不喝酒)的老年人死亡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)低、平均余壽長,且預(yù)期完全自理時間相對較長。文章認(rèn)為,隨著社會保障制度的不斷完善,在中國老年人壽命延長的同時,失能時間也相應(yīng)增加,政府應(yīng)出臺政策支持老年人家庭以減輕其照料負(fù)擔(dān);給予喪偶老年人更多的情感支持和精神慰藉,鼓勵和引導(dǎo)老年人形成健康的生活習(xí)慣,這對"健康老齡化"有著重要意義。
[Abstract]:Based on the investigation data of the influential factors of health and longevity of the elderly in China from 2008 to 2011, the factors influencing the probability of death and the probability of transition of self-care state were studied by logit model. On the basis of this, the life table of self-care state is used to estimate the remaining life and expected disability time of the elderly with different characteristics. The results showed that the average remaining life expectancy of the 65-year-old was about 16.04 years, of which the expected periods of total self-care, mild disability, moderate disability and severe disability were 10.11, 4.42, 0.88-0.63 years, respectively. The average residual life span of female elderly is 2.47 years longer than that of male, but the expected disability time of female is 2.26 years longer than that of male. The elderly with medical insurance have a low risk of death, with an average remaining life span, but expected to be disabled, especially moderate, severe disability for a longer period of time in marriage. The elderly with healthy living habits (such as regular physical exercise, non-smoking, non-drinking) have a low risk of death, average remaining life, and expect to take care of themselves for a relatively long time. With the continuous improvement of the social security system, the life expectancy of the elderly in China has been prolonged and the time of disability has increased accordingly. The government should introduce policies to support the elderly families in order to lighten their burden of care. It is of great significance to give the widowed elderly more emotional support and spiritual comfort to encourage and guide them to form healthy living habits.
【作者單位】： 中國社會科學(xué)院農(nóng)村發(fā)展研究所;中國社會科學(xué)院社會發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究院;
【基金】：博士后基金項(xiàng)目“城鎮(zhèn)化背景下農(nóng)村失能老人長期照護(hù)制度研究”(編號:2017M611098)的階段性成果
【分類號】：C913.6;R161.7

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