本文選題：旱澇災(zāi)害 + 極端氣候變化　； 參考：《中國科學(xué):地球科學(xué)》2017年12期

【摘要】：眾多的大數(shù)據(jù)定量研究證明了在歷史時期,極端氣候變化能造成中國社會不穩(wěn)定.但是,已有的研究將溫度和降水量作為主要解析變量,欠缺了旱澇災(zāi)害對社會動蕩影響的大數(shù)據(jù)定量分析.同時,相關(guān)研究也沒有分不同地理區(qū)域和不同時間尺度進行對比和深入探討.為解決該問題,本研究對中國三個農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)區(qū)(水稻種植區(qū)、小麥種植區(qū)和牧業(yè)區(qū))開展定量分析,探究公元1470~1911年間中國旱澇災(zāi)害與內(nèi)亂的對應(yīng)關(guān)系.鑒于旱澇與內(nèi)亂的對應(yīng)可能是"非線性"和"非固定性"的,我們采用Poisson回歸分析和小波一致性分析檢測兩者關(guān)系.結(jié)果表明,旱澇災(zāi)害誘發(fā)了中國歷史時期的內(nèi)亂,但區(qū)域差異顯著.在水稻種植區(qū),洪澇在年際和數(shù)十年際的時間尺度引發(fā)內(nèi)亂;在小麥種植區(qū),洪澇和干旱均在年際和數(shù)十年際的時間尺度引發(fā)內(nèi)亂;牧業(yè)區(qū)的內(nèi)亂只在數(shù)十年際尺度與洪澇相關(guān).此外,在數(shù)十年際時間尺度,三個農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)區(qū)的旱澇事件只在人口密度不斷增加或處于相對區(qū)域承載力較高的水平時段內(nèi)和內(nèi)亂顯著相關(guān).本研究指出氣候-戰(zhàn)爭的對應(yīng)關(guān)系明顯受地區(qū)因素如自然環(huán)境及人口壓力影響,有鑒于此,在研究歷史時期的人地關(guān)系時,應(yīng)先把不同地區(qū)的數(shù)據(jù)分割,再以每個地區(qū)為單位進行獨立分析,這要點有望被廣泛應(yīng)用于后續(xù)研究.
[Abstract]:Numerous quantitative studies by big data have proved that extreme climate change can lead to social instability in China during the historical period. However, the existing studies take temperature and precipitation as the main analytical variables, and lack big data quantitative analysis of the effects of drought and flood on social unrest. At the same time, the relevant studies are not divided into different geographical areas and different time scales for comparison and in-depth study. In order to solve this problem, quantitative analysis was carried out on three agricultural ecological regions (rice, wheat and animal husbandry areas) in China, and the corresponding relationship between drought and flood disasters and civil unrest in China from 1470 to 1911 was explored. In view of the fact that the correspondence between drought, flood and civil disturbance may be "nonlinear" and "non-stationary", we use Poisson regression analysis and wavelet consistency analysis to detect the relationship between them. The results show that the drought and flood disaster induced civil strife in the historical period of China, but the regional differences are significant. In rice growing areas, floods and waterlogging cause civil unrest in interannual and decadal time scales, and in wheat-growing areas, floods and droughts cause civil strife in interannual and decades-long time scales. The civil unrest in pastoral areas is associated with flooding only on a decades-long scale. In addition, on the scale of several decades, the drought and flood events in the three agro-ecological regions are significantly related to civil unrest only in the period of increasing population density or at a higher level of relative regional carrying capacity. This study points out that the corresponding relationship between climate and war is obviously affected by regional factors such as natural environment and population pressure. In view of this, when studying the relationship between man and land in historical period, we should first divide the data of different regions. Independent analysis based on each region is expected to be widely used in follow-up studies.
【作者單位】： 香港大學(xué)地理系香港大學(xué)中國發(fā)展國際研究中心;廣州大學(xué)地理科學(xué)學(xué)院;香港教育大學(xué)社會科學(xué)系;南京大學(xué)地理與海洋科學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：許愛周信托基金項目(編號:201502172003、201602172006) 中國香港特別行政區(qū)政府研究資助局項目(編號:HKU745113H、17610715) CAS-SAFEA國際合作創(chuàng)新研究團隊項目資助
【分類號】：C912.4;P426.616

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