本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國房價與婚姻穩(wěn)定性關(guān)系間的實(shí)證研究　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 房價 婚姻穩(wěn)定性 協(xié)整檢驗(yàn) 格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)

【摘要】：近三十年來,我國的婚姻穩(wěn)定性逐步在下降。國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示,我國粗離婚率從1985年的0.4357%o提高到2014年的2.67%o,提高了5.13倍,反映了中國居民的婚姻處于越來越不穩(wěn)定的態(tài)勢。與此同時,我國商品房平均銷售價格呈持續(xù)上漲趨勢,從1985年的310.88元/平米上漲到2014年的6324元/平米,30年間上漲了19倍,年平均增長10.95%。上面的數(shù)據(jù)表明房價與離婚率的時間序列表現(xiàn)出共同變化趨勢。有趣的是,我國1985年--2014年的商品房平均銷售價格數(shù)據(jù)和離婚率數(shù)據(jù)在變化趨勢上非常相似,且兩者相關(guān)系數(shù)達(dá)到0.98。這兩者之間是否真正存在內(nèi)在的聯(lián)系,需要進(jìn)一步的分析和驗(yàn)證。本文首先從統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)上對我國房價與婚姻穩(wěn)定性兩者隨時間變化情況進(jìn)行了對比分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)無論從全國整體還是分省市來看,房價與婚姻穩(wěn)定性存在相似的變化趨勢,即房價越來越高,離婚率或者離婚夫婦對數(shù)也越來越大。鑒于不少學(xué)者認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)因素會影響婚姻穩(wěn)定性,接下來本文從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)視角對房價與婚姻穩(wěn)定性間相互影響機(jī)理進(jìn)行了分析,得出在一定假設(shè)條件下,房價會影響婚姻穩(wěn)定性,而婚姻穩(wěn)定性也會影響房價的結(jié)論。為了檢驗(yàn)兩者之間在統(tǒng)計(jì)上的因果關(guān)系,本文使用我國1985年-2014年的離婚率數(shù)據(jù)和商品房銷售價格數(shù)據(jù),利用時間序列分析方法中的協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、誤差修正模型、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)等方法對兩者關(guān)系進(jìn)行了探討。結(jié)論認(rèn)為,樣本期間在統(tǒng)計(jì)上找不到我國房價影響離婚率的證據(jù),卻能找到離婚率影響房價的證據(jù)。此結(jié)論與相關(guān)研究得出的結(jié)論存在差異,本文對此的解釋是,國外的制度、環(huán)境、婚姻觀念、社會文化、法律等影響離婚率的因素與我國存在差異,且這些研究基于的假設(shè)條件在我國也并不一定成立,所以導(dǎo)致國外學(xué)者得出的結(jié)論在我國不一定成立；而國內(nèi)的研究結(jié)論與本文存在差異的原因是,其在實(shí)證分析中進(jìn)行格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)時采用了非平穩(wěn)序列的房價和離婚率原序列,違背了格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)的要求,可能影響了該結(jié)論的可靠性,使得與本文結(jié)論存在差異。最后,基于本文的研究結(jié)論,本文認(rèn)為我國相關(guān)政府部門應(yīng)該堅(jiān)持進(jìn)一步完善房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策,防止我國房價過快增長,保證房地產(chǎn)市場健康有效運(yùn)行。
[Abstract]:In the past three decades, the stability of marriage in China has been declining gradually. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the crude divorce rate in China has increased from 0.4357o on 1985 to 2.67o on 2014. The increase of 5.13 times reflects the increasingly unstable trend of marriage among Chinese residents. At the same time, the average selling price of commercial housing in China is continuously rising. From 310.88 yuan per square meter in 1985 to 6324 yuan per square meter in 2014, it has risen by 19 times in 30 years. The data above show that the time series of house prices and divorce rates show a common trend. Interestingly. From 1985 to 2014, the average sales price data and divorce rate data of commercial housing in China are very similar. And the correlation coefficient between the two reached 0.98. Whether there is a real internal relationship between the two. Need further analysis and verification. First of all, from the statistical data of China's housing prices and marital stability with the change of time were compared, found that no matter from the whole country or sub-provinces and cities. There is a similar change trend between house price and marriage stability, that is, the price of house is higher and higher, divorce rate or divorce couples logarithm is also increasing. In view of many scholars think that economic factors will affect the stability of marriage. Then from the perspective of economics, this paper analyzes the interaction between house prices and marital stability, and concludes that under certain assumptions, housing prices will affect the stability of marriage. In order to test the statistical causality between the two, this paper uses the divorce rate data from 1985 to 2014 and the sale price data of commercial housing. The relationship between them is discussed by using the methods of co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test in time series analysis. During the sample period, we can not find the evidence that the housing price affects the divorce rate in our country, but can find the evidence that the divorce rate affects the housing price. This conclusion is different from the conclusion of the related research. The explanation of this paper is that. Foreign institutions, environment, concept of marriage, social culture, law and other factors affecting divorce rates are different from China, and the hypothetical conditions on which these studies are based are not necessarily established in China. So the conclusion of foreign scholars may not hold true in our country. The reason for the difference between the domestic research results and this paper is that the Granger causality test in the empirical analysis of the use of non-stationary series of housing prices and divorce rates of the original sequence, contrary to the Granger causality test requirements. This may affect the reliability of the conclusion, making it different from the conclusion of this paper. Finally, based on the conclusions of this paper, this paper believes that the relevant government departments in China should adhere to the further improvement of real estate regulation and control policies. To prevent the rapid growth of housing prices in China, to ensure the healthy and effective operation of the real estate market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：C913.1;F299.23

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