發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-31 19:02

【摘要】：近年來我國城鄉(xiāng)的生育意愿處于持續(xù)萎縮中,第五次及第六次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)顯示,我國的總和生育率分別為1.22和1.18,生育率低已成我國經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)發(fā)展的重大隱患。受傳統(tǒng)“養(yǎng)兒防老”和“多子多福”觀念的影響,養(yǎng)老一直是我國居民選擇生育的主要?jiǎng)訖C(jī)之一。當(dāng)前我國養(yǎng)老方式主要有依靠子女的家庭養(yǎng)老和依靠養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的社會(huì)養(yǎng)老,二者對(duì)生育意愿的影響受到學(xué)界的廣泛關(guān)注本文基于2013年中國綜合社會(huì)調(diào)查(CGSS)數(shù)據(jù),利用Logit模型與泊松回歸模型,將生意意愿分為是否生育和生育數(shù)量兩個(gè)方面,實(shí)證分析了養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)、家庭養(yǎng)老對(duì)我國居民生育意愿的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)和家庭養(yǎng)老不但提高了我國居民選擇生育的概率,同時(shí)還強(qiáng)化了我國居民多生育子女的意愿,但其作用效果存在性別差異。此外,本文還分析了養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)與家庭養(yǎng)老交互對(duì)生育意愿的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)強(qiáng)化了家庭養(yǎng)老對(duì)我國居民生育概率的正向影響。最后,為了驗(yàn)證上述研究結(jié)果的穩(wěn)健性,本文分城鄉(xiāng)來檢驗(yàn)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)和家庭養(yǎng)老對(duì)生育意愿的影響。研究表明,不論是將生育意愿視為二分變量還是計(jì)數(shù)變量,戶籍都具有顯著影響,回歸結(jié)果也具有穩(wěn)健性。養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)促進(jìn)了城鎮(zhèn)居民選擇生育的概率和數(shù)量,但對(duì)于農(nóng)村的居民沒有顯著影響。與之相對(duì)的是,家庭養(yǎng)老對(duì)我國農(nóng)村居民選擇生育的意愿和數(shù)量有明顯的強(qiáng)化作用,但對(duì)于城鎮(zhèn)居民的影響并不顯著。本文的研究結(jié)果具有重要的政策啟示,二胎政策并非鼓勵(lì)人口生育的唯一途徑,適當(dāng)提高養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)待遇可以間接調(diào)控人口數(shù)量,實(shí)現(xiàn)從政策控制生育到社保覆蓋下的自愿適度生育,此外,在實(shí)現(xiàn)社會(huì)保障城鄉(xiāng)均衡發(fā)展的同時(shí),應(yīng)該促使養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)和家庭養(yǎng)老形成良性互補(bǔ),以消除居民的養(yǎng)老恐慌和憂慮,從而有助于居民做出合理的生育決策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the fertility willingness of China's urban and rural areas is in a continuous decline. The data of the fifth and sixth population censuses show that the total fertility rate is 1.22 and 1.18, respectively. The low fertility rate has become a major hidden danger for the economic and social development of our country. Influenced by the traditional concepts of "raising children and preventing old age" and "having more children and more happiness", old-age support has always been one of the main motivations for Chinese residents to choose to have children. At present, the main ways of providing for the aged in our country are the family old-age care based on children and the social old-age pension based on the old-age insurance system. The influence of these two methods on the desire to have children has attracted extensive attention in the academic circles. This paper is based on the (CGSS) data of China Comprehensive Social Survey in 2013. By using Logit model and Poisson regression model, this paper divides the business intention into two aspects: whether or not to have children and the number of births, and analyzes empirically the influence of pension insurance and family pension on the fertility intention of Chinese residents. It is found that old-age insurance and family old-age insurance not only increase the probability of Chinese residents to choose to have children, but also strengthen the willingness of Chinese residents to have more children, but the effect is different between sexes. In addition, this paper also analyzes the influence of the interaction between the family pension and the family pension on the fertility intention, and finds that the pension insurance strengthens the positive influence of the family pension on the fertility probability of the residents in our country. Finally, in order to verify the robustness of the above research results, this paper examines the effects of old-age insurance and family pension on fertility intention in urban and rural areas. The study shows that whether the fertility intention is regarded as a binary variable or a counting variable, the household registration has a significant impact, and the regression results are also robust. Pension insurance promotes the probability and quantity of urban residents' choice of fertility, but has no significant effect on rural residents. On the other hand, the family pension plays a significant role in strengthening the willingness and number of rural residents to choose to have children, but the effect on urban residents is not significant. The results of this paper have important policy implications. The policy of second child is not the only way to encourage the population to have children. To realize voluntary and moderate childbearing from policy control to social security coverage. In addition, while realizing the balanced development of social security in urban and rural areas, we should promote the formation of benign complementarities between old-age insurance and family old-age care, so as to eliminate the residents' panic and anxiety in providing for the aged. This will help residents to make reasonable reproductive decisions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：D669.6;F842.67

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