建筑業(yè)人工成本主要影響因素識(shí)別及預(yù)測(cè)研究
本文選題:建筑業(yè) + 人工成本; 參考:《重慶大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文
【摘要】:長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),我國(guó)典型的“二元經(jīng)濟(jì)”結(jié)構(gòu)為工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)提供了富足的勞動(dòng)力資源。建筑業(yè)作為我國(guó)的傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)和國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),大規(guī)模的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和民生工程建設(shè)吸納了大量的農(nóng)村轉(zhuǎn)移勞動(dòng)力,也正是“人口紅利”創(chuàng)造的廉價(jià)勞務(wù)輸出,成就了我國(guó)建筑業(yè)在海外市場(chǎng)的拓展之路。然而,受勞動(dòng)人口絕對(duì)數(shù)量下降和勞動(dòng)力結(jié)構(gòu)性失衡的影響,最早源于制造業(yè)的“民工荒”、“招工難”現(xiàn)象已波及建筑業(yè):各個(gè)工種價(jià)格均出現(xiàn)不同程度的上漲,人工成本占建安工程費(fèi)用的比例逐年攀升,這對(duì)建筑企業(yè)以材料費(fèi)、機(jī)械設(shè)備費(fèi)為重點(diǎn)的傳統(tǒng)管理模式提出重大挑戰(zhàn),而進(jìn)行人工成本主要影響因素識(shí)別、探索人工成本預(yù)測(cè)方法是開(kāi)展人工成本管控的基礎(chǔ)。首先,論文分別基于人力資源管理和企業(yè)會(huì)計(jì)的視角梳理了人工成本的概念及構(gòu)成要素,從建筑業(yè)從業(yè)人員分類(lèi)入手清晰地界定了建筑業(yè)人工成本的構(gòu)成,明確本文研究的重點(diǎn),并對(duì)具有代表性的人工成本理論加以剖析。隨后,結(jié)合建筑業(yè)勞動(dòng)力供求現(xiàn)狀,通過(guò)建筑業(yè)城鎮(zhèn)職工和建筑工種工資性收入發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的分析凸顯建筑行業(yè)人工成本現(xiàn)狀,并從勞動(dòng)力基本素質(zhì)、工資水平、勞動(dòng)條件及社會(huì)保障三個(gè)方面設(shè)計(jì)調(diào)查問(wèn)卷挖掘建筑業(yè)勞動(dòng)力供需的深層析矛盾以及人工成本上漲的深層次原因。之后,通過(guò)結(jié)構(gòu)化訪談并結(jié)合建筑業(yè)人工成本的現(xiàn)狀分析,將文獻(xiàn)識(shí)別出的51項(xiàng)影響指標(biāo)進(jìn)行梳理,隨后,采用Likert量表法進(jìn)行問(wèn)卷設(shè)計(jì),借助SPSS軟件對(duì)問(wèn)卷回收數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行因子分析,得到工程特征因素、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素、行業(yè)因素、企業(yè)因素、建造成本因素、勞動(dòng)者因素六項(xiàng)主要影響因素,并按照影響因素的重要性指數(shù)進(jìn)行排序,最終確定勞動(dòng)力供需結(jié)構(gòu)、居民消費(fèi)水平、建筑業(yè)總產(chǎn)值、建筑企業(yè)數(shù)量以及建筑業(yè)從業(yè)人員數(shù)量對(duì)建筑業(yè)人工成本的影響較大。最后,在借鑒人工成本預(yù)測(cè)現(xiàn)有方法的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合灰色理論中灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度模型和灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型的優(yōu)勢(shì)與不足,融合回歸分析中基于事物的因果關(guān)系進(jìn)行邏輯推理的本質(zhì),構(gòu)建了人工成本灰色組合預(yù)測(cè)模型,并通過(guò)實(shí)證研究證明其預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果相對(duì)于灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型具有較高的精度。論文通過(guò)問(wèn)卷調(diào)查和實(shí)地調(diào)研了解現(xiàn)實(shí)情況,在此基礎(chǔ)上開(kāi)展理論研究,使結(jié)論更具說(shuō)服力。論文的研究結(jié)果一方面可以加強(qiáng)建筑企業(yè)對(duì)人工成本的重視,另一方面,可以對(duì)人工成本的管控工作提供基礎(chǔ)支撐。
[Abstract]:For a long time, China's typical "dual economy" structure has provided abundant labor resources for industrialization and urbanization. As the traditional industry of our country and the pillar industry of the national economy, the large-scale infrastructure construction and the construction of people's livelihood project have absorbed a large amount of rural migrant labor force, which is also the cheap labor export created by the "demographic dividend". Has achieved our country construction industry to expand the road in the overseas market. However, as a result of the decline in the absolute number of workers and the structural imbalance in the labour force, the "shortage of workers" in the manufacturing sector, the phenomenon of "recruitment difficulties", has spread to the construction industry: prices of all types of jobs have risen to varying degrees. The proportion of labor cost to Jianan project cost is rising year by year, which brings great challenge to the traditional management mode of construction enterprise, which focuses on material cost and machinery and equipment cost, while the main influencing factors of labor cost are identified. To explore the method of labor cost prediction is the basis of labor cost control. First of all, based on the human resource management and enterprise accounting perspective, the paper combs the concept and elements of labor cost, and clearly defines the composition of construction labor cost from the classification of construction workers. The emphasis of this paper is clarified, and the representative labor cost theory is analyzed. Then, according to the current situation of labor supply and demand in the construction industry, through the analysis of the development trend of the income of urban workers and construction workers in the construction industry, it highlights the current situation of labor costs in the construction industry, and from the basic quality of labor force, wage level, Three aspects of labor conditions and social security design questionnaire to dig out the construction industry labor supply and demand deep analysis of contradictions and the deep-seated reasons for the rise of labor costs. Then, through structured interviews and analysis of the current situation of labor costs in construction industry, 51 impact indicators identified by the literature were sorted out. Then, the questionnaire was designed by using Likert scale method. With the help of SPSS software, the factors of engineering characteristics, macroeconomic factors, industry factors, enterprise factors, construction cost factors and laborer factors are obtained by factor analysis of the data collected from the questionnaire. Finally, the structure of labor supply and demand, the level of resident consumption, the total output value of construction industry, the number of construction enterprises and the number of employees in construction industry have great influence on the labor cost of construction industry. Finally, based on the existing methods of labor cost prediction, combining the advantages and disadvantages of grey correlation degree model and grey GM1 / 1) prediction model in grey theory, the essence of logical reasoning based on the causal relationship of things in regression analysis is fused. The grey combination forecasting model of labor cost is constructed, and its prediction result is proved to be more accurate than that of the grey GM1 / 1) model. On the basis of questionnaire investigation and field investigation, the paper carries out theoretical research to make the conclusion more convincing. On the one hand, the research results of the paper can strengthen the construction enterprises to pay attention to the labor cost, on the other hand, it can provide the basic support to the management and control of the labor cost.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】:F426.92;F406.72
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 江藝羨;張岐山;;GM(1,1)模型背景值的優(yōu)化[J];中國(guó)管理科學(xué);2015年09期
2 劉佳;劉伊生;陳煦;;建筑業(yè)人工成本上漲影響因素、發(fā)展趨勢(shì)及對(duì)策研究——基于VAR、ARIMA(2,2,1)模型[J];北京交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2015年02期
3 黨耀國(guó);王俊杰;康文芳;;灰色預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)研究進(jìn)展綜述[J];上海電機(jī)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2015年01期
4 楊旭瑞;;談建筑工程施工的成本動(dòng)態(tài)灰色預(yù)測(cè)方法[J];山西建筑;2015年05期
5 徐寧;黨耀國(guó);丁松;;基于誤差最小化的GM(1,1)模型背景值優(yōu)化方法[J];控制與決策;2015年02期
6 馬颯;黃建鋒;;勞動(dòng)力成本上升削弱了中國(guó)的引資優(yōu)勢(shì)嗎——基于跨國(guó)面板數(shù)據(jù)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析[J];國(guó)際貿(mào)易問(wèn)題;2014年10期
7 蔣詩(shī)泉;劉思峰;周興才;;基于復(fù)化梯形公式的GM(1,1)模型背景值的優(yōu)化[J];控制與決策;2014年12期
8 辛永容;陳?ài)?;中國(guó)制造業(yè)成本競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)——基于ARIMA與PSONN組合模型的預(yù)測(cè)分析[J];系統(tǒng)工程;2014年08期
9 王歡;黃健元;王薇;;人口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變、產(chǎn)業(yè)及就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整背景下勞動(dòng)力供求關(guān)系分析[J];人口與經(jīng)濟(jì);2014年02期
10 朱傳書(shū);;企業(yè)人力資源成本構(gòu)成及核算問(wèn)題研究[J];人力資源管理;2014年02期
相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前2條
1 刁艷波;中國(guó)建筑業(yè)勞動(dòng)力成本增長(zhǎng)問(wèn)題及綜合評(píng)價(jià)研究[D];重慶大學(xué);2014年
2 唐菁菁;勞動(dòng)力成本上漲推動(dòng)的建筑業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究[D];華中科技大學(xué);2013年
相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前5條
1 任莉;建筑(水利水電)工程人工成本上漲及控制分析[D];南昌大學(xué);2014年
2 孫岑菲;建筑工程人工成本變動(dòng)的影響因素及趨勢(shì)研究[D];重慶大學(xué);2014年
3 劉攬?jiān)?基于級(jí)聯(lián)神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的建筑業(yè)人工成本預(yù)測(cè)研究[D];重慶大學(xué);2013年
4 張先忠;建筑企業(yè)人工成本上揚(yáng)對(duì)企業(yè)的影響研究[D];鄭州大學(xué);2010年
5 任越;建筑業(yè)人工成本管理及對(duì)策研究[D];重慶大學(xué);2008年
,本文編號(hào):1841388
本文鏈接:http://sikaile.net/shekelunwen/shehuibaozhanglunwen/1841388.html