本文關(guān)鍵詞： 延遲退休 工作期 退休期 收入不確定性 支出不確定性 居民儲蓄率　出處：《廣東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長與居民高儲蓄率和低消費(fèi)率共存的現(xiàn)象,一直倍受社會各界的廣泛關(guān)注。高儲蓄低消費(fèi)對我國資本結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化以及經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)發(fā)展存在不利影響。隨著我國人口老齡化加劇、預(yù)期壽命以及受教育年限延長,延遲退休制度預(yù)期通過居民的工作期時(shí)長、退休期時(shí)長、收入不確定性以及支出不確定性,間接影響我國居民儲蓄率。本文基于延遲退休視角,研究我國居民儲蓄率的影響因素,研究結(jié)果有助于政策制定者全面評估延遲退休年齡政策可能帶來的影響。本文首先從理論角度研究延遲退休年齡(工作期時(shí)長、退休期時(shí)長、收入不確定性以及支出不確定性)對我國居民儲蓄率的影響。其次,運(yùn)用2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年我國30個(gè)省市自治區(qū)(重慶不在內(nèi))的面板數(shù)據(jù)建立動態(tài)面板模型,采用系統(tǒng)廣義矩估計(jì)(GMM)方法研究延遲退休年齡對我國居民儲蓄率的影響,用分位數(shù)回歸法檢驗(yàn)回歸結(jié)果的穩(wěn)健性與可靠性。研究結(jié)果表明,在不引入其他控制變量情況下,預(yù)期壽命、收入不確定性以及支出不確定性對居民儲蓄率在1%的顯著性水平下均存在相關(guān)關(guān)系,受教育年限的變動與居民儲蓄率不存在相關(guān)關(guān)系。在控制人口結(jié)構(gòu)變量(少年兒童撫養(yǎng)比、老年人口撫養(yǎng)比)、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度變量(養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)覆蓋面、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)金規(guī)模)、城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu)變量(城鄉(xiāng)居民收入差距、城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程)以及宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量(實(shí)際利率、人均收入增長率)因素后,收入不確定性、支出不確定性以及受教育年限對居民儲蓄率的影響均不顯著,預(yù)期壽命對居民儲蓄率在1%顯著性水平下顯著。通過研究結(jié)果得出相關(guān)結(jié)論,從延遲退休方面來看,在法定退休制度下,預(yù)期壽命延長增加退休期時(shí)長,受教育年限延長縮短工作期時(shí)長,而延遲退休年齡縮短退休期時(shí)長,因此,延遲退休年齡有助于緩解工作期縮短、退休期延長對居民儲蓄率的影響,從而降低居民儲蓄率,同時(shí),延遲退休帶來收入支出的不確定性降低居民儲蓄率。由此可知,延遲退休能夠有效地降低我國居民儲蓄率;從人口結(jié)構(gòu)方面,老年人口撫養(yǎng)比對居民儲蓄率呈負(fù)效應(yīng);從養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度方面,養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)金規(guī)模越廣泛居民儲蓄率越高;從城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu)方面,加快城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程有利于降低我國居民儲蓄率;從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)方面,經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展人均收入增加,驅(qū)使當(dāng)下中國居民儲蓄攀升。政策建議,第一,鼓勵(lì)推行延遲退休政策;第二,加快城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程,提高農(nóng)村居民收入,縮小城鄉(xiāng)居民收入差距;第三,政府應(yīng)該完善規(guī)范金融市場和資本市場;第四,明確養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)改革的重心;第五,完善社會保障體系,降低居民未來不確定性預(yù)期;第六,刺激消費(fèi)者的消費(fèi)欲望。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid economic growth and the coexistence of high savings rate and low consumption rate of residents in China, High savings and low consumption have adverse effects on the optimization of capital structure and the sustainable development of economy in China. With the aging of our population, life expectancy and education years are prolonged. The delayed retirement system is expected to affect the savings rate indirectly through the length of the resident's working period, the length of the retirement period, the uncertainty of income and the uncertainty of expenditure. This paper studies the influencing factors of the resident savings rate in China, and the results are helpful for the policy makers to evaluate the possible impact of the delayed retirement age policy. Firstly, this paper studies the delayed retirement age (working time, long retirement period) from a theoretical point of view. Secondly, using the panel data of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2010 to establish the dynamic panel model, which is based on the income uncertainty and expenditure uncertainty. The system generalized moment estimator (GMMM) is used to study the effect of late retirement age on the savings rate of Chinese residents, and the quantile regression method is used to test the robustness and reliability of the regression results. The results show that, without introducing other control variables, the stability and reliability of the regression results are tested. Life expectancy, income uncertainty and expenditure uncertainty are all related to the household savings rate at the significant level of 1%. There is no correlation between the change of schooling years and the saving rate of residents. In controlling the population structure variables (the dependency ratio of children and adolescents, the dependency ratio of the elderly population), the variables of the old-age insurance system (the coverage of the pension insurance, Pension insurance scale, urban-rural dual structure variables (urban-rural income gap, urbanization process) and macroeconomic variables (real interest rate, per capita income growth rate) factors, income uncertainty, The uncertainty of expenditure and the effect of years of education on the savings rate of residents are not significant, and life expectancy has a significant effect on the savings rate of residents at the level of 1%. Through the results of the study, the relevant conclusions are drawn, and from the point of view of delayed retirement, Under the statutory retirement system, extended life expectancy increases the length of the retirement period, increases the number of years of schooling and shortens the length of the working period, while the delay in the retirement age shortens the length of the retirement period, thus helping to mitigate the shortening of the working period, At the same time, the uncertainty of income and expenditure caused by delayed retirement can reduce the savings rate of residents, which shows that the delay of retirement can effectively reduce the savings rate of residents in China. In terms of population structure, the dependency ratio of the elderly population has a negative effect on the resident savings rate; from the aspect of the old-age insurance system, the broader the scale of pension insurance, the higher the resident savings rate; from the dual structure of urban and rural areas, Speeding up the process of urbanization is conducive to reducing the savings rate of residents in China; from the macroeconomic point of view, the rapid development of the economy increases per capita income, which drives the current increase in household savings in China. Policy recommendations, first, encourage the implementation of the policy of delayed retirement; second, Speed up the urbanization process, increase the income of rural residents, narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents; third, the government should perfect and standardize the financial market and capital market; 4th, clear the focus of pension insurance reform; 5th, improve the social security system, Reduce the future uncertainty of residents; 6th, stimulate consumer consumption desire.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F249.2;F126.1

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張志遠(yuǎn);張銘洪;;法定退休制下受教育年限、預(yù)期壽命與儲蓄率的關(guān)系——兼論延遲退休對居民儲蓄率的影響[J];當(dāng)代財(cái)經(jīng);2016年12期

2 袁冬梅;李春風(fēng);劉建江;;城鎮(zhèn)居民預(yù)防性儲蓄動機(jī)的異質(zhì)性及強(qiáng)度研究[J];管理科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2014年07期

3 楊繼軍;張二震;;人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度轉(zhuǎn)軌對居民儲蓄率的影響[J];中國社會科學(xué);2013年08期

4 張宗明;廖貅武;劉樹林;;需求不確定性下IT服務(wù)外包合同設(shè)計(jì)與分析[J];管理科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2013年02期

5 劉生龍;胡鞍鋼;郎曉娟;;預(yù)期壽命與中國家庭儲蓄[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2012年08期

6 范敘春;朱保華;;預(yù)期壽命增長、年齡結(jié)構(gòu)改變與我國國民儲蓄率[J];人口研究;2012年04期

7 周曉艷;汪德華;李鈞鵬;;新型農(nóng)村合作醫(yī)療對中國農(nóng)村居民儲蓄行為影響的實(shí)證分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2011年02期

8 劉長生;簡玉峰;;壽命預(yù)期、教育資本與內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長[J];當(dāng)代財(cái)經(jīng);2011年04期

9 蘇基溶;廖進(jìn)中;;中國城鎮(zhèn)居民儲蓄的影響因素研究:基于三類儲蓄動機(jī)的實(shí)證分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)評論;2010年01期

10 鄧翔;李鍇;;中國城鎮(zhèn)居民預(yù)防性儲蓄成因分析[J];南開經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2009年02期

，

本文編號：1526472