本文關(guān)鍵詞： 農(nóng)村人口空心化 時(shí)空分異 縣域　出處：《人口學(xué)刊》2017年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：本文從農(nóng)村人口空心化的定義與內(nèi)涵出發(fā),選取流出人口比重、城鎮(zhèn)化率、0~14歲少兒人口比重和65歲以上老年人口比重四個(gè)指標(biāo),采用綜合測(cè)評(píng)法從縣域尺度對(duì)中國(guó)1 995個(gè)縣(市、旗)的農(nóng)村人口空心化程度進(jìn)行測(cè)度,運(yùn)用核密度估計(jì)、ESDA-GIS等方法對(duì)其時(shí)空分異特征及其原因進(jìn)行分析。研究表明2000年、2010年中國(guó)農(nóng)村人口空心化指數(shù)均值分別為14.22、23.45,呈現(xiàn)時(shí)間上的動(dòng)態(tài)大幅上升趨勢(shì),高值區(qū)主要為胡煥庸線以東區(qū)域以及黑—蒙北部,低值區(qū)集中于胡煥庸線附近、滇—藏南部以及川西地區(qū);2000~2010年1 892個(gè)縣(市、旗)農(nóng)村人口空心化出現(xiàn)不同程度的惡化,103個(gè)縣(市、旗)農(nóng)村人口空心化有所改善。中國(guó)農(nóng)村人口空心化程度呈現(xiàn)西—東、南—北加劇的空間格局,南北向農(nóng)村人口空心化程度差異大于東西向。2000年、2010年中國(guó)農(nóng)村人口空心化程度全局Moran’s I分別為0.615 2、0.616 5,存在全局空間強(qiáng)自相關(guān)特征,空間集聚趨勢(shì)有所加強(qiáng),區(qū)域差異正逐步拉大。高—高型集聚區(qū)域從沿海地區(qū)向內(nèi)陸川渝地區(qū)、皖豫交接區(qū)域擴(kuò)展,北部高—高型集聚趨緩,不同聚類區(qū)域農(nóng)村人口空心化程度內(nèi)部異質(zhì)性有所加強(qiáng)。地方政府應(yīng)從當(dāng)?shù)貙?shí)際出發(fā),在就業(yè)扶持、信貸支持、宅基地使用、社會(huì)保障及教育醫(yī)療等方面多管齊下,破解農(nóng)村人口空心化困局。
[Abstract]:Based on the definition and connotation of rural population emptiness, this paper selects four indicators: the proportion of outflow population, the urbanization rate of children aged 14 years and the proportion of elderly population over 65 years old. The hollowing degree of rural population in 1,995 counties (cities and banners) in China was measured by comprehensive evaluation method from the county scale. The characteristics of spatial and temporal differentiation and its causes are analyzed by using the methods of nuclear density estimation (ESDA-GIS). The results show that in 2000 and 2010, the average value of hollowness index of rural population in China was 14.22 ~ 23.45, showing a dynamic and increasing trend in time. The high value area is mainly the area east of Hu Huanyong line and the northern part of Black Mongolia, the low value area is concentrated near Hu Huanyong line, there are 1 892 counties (cities) in southern Yunnan and Tibet and western Sichuan from 2000 to 2010. The hollowness of rural population has deteriorated to varying degrees, and the hollowness of the rural population has improved in 103 counties (cities and banners). The degree of population hollowing in rural areas in China is characterized by a spatial pattern intensified from the west to the east and from the south to the north. In 2000, the global Moran's I of China's rural population in 2010 was 0.615 2 ~ 0.616 5, respectively. There was a strong autocorrelation in global space, and the trend of spatial agglomeration was strengthened. The regional difference is gradually widening. The high-high type agglomeration area extends from the coastal area to the inland Sichuan and Chongqing area, the transition region between Anhui and Henan extends, and the northern high-high type agglomeration slows down. The internal heterogeneity of rural population hollowing degree in different cluster areas has been strengthened. Local governments should proceed from the local reality, and should be multi-pronged in employment support, credit support, homestead use, social security, education and medical treatment, and so on. Solving the problem of rural population hollowing out.
【作者單位】： 湖南大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易學(xué)院;暨南大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目:基于農(nóng)戶視角的空心村形成機(jī)理與治理機(jī)制創(chuàng)新研究(12BGL102)
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2

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本文編號(hào)：1524446