充分利用人口紅利促進(jìn)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的問題研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-03-31 13:39
【摘要】：“人口紅利”作為一個新近出現(xiàn)與人口變動有關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論，主要研究人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系。近些年來，由于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速增長和人口老齡化進(jìn)程的加快，這一理論引起了國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的廣泛關(guān)注。本文主要嘗試著從馬克思的產(chǎn)業(yè)后備軍理論、劉易斯的二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)理論和田雪原的人口紅利觀點(diǎn)來探索人口紅利理論的起源，綜述專家學(xué)者的觀點(diǎn)，對人口紅利的內(nèi)涵和外延進(jìn)行概述，從勞動力資源被充分利用、勞動力能夠自由流動、較高的勞動力人口素質(zhì)、勞動力本身有意愿參與勞動四個方面簡單總結(jié)人口紅利的實(shí)現(xiàn)條件，以及促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的動因�；谝陨侠碚摶A(chǔ)，在第六次人口普查的基礎(chǔ)上，利用已有研究者的研究方法，判斷我國當(dāng)前人口結(jié)構(gòu)處于人口紅利期，確切的說處于人口暴利期，并一步判斷人口紅利期將于2030年結(jié)束。同時，總結(jié)我國的人口紅利呈現(xiàn)的特點(diǎn)：生育水平短期內(nèi)急劇下降，未富先老，人口紅利期與社會轉(zhuǎn)型、改革開放同步以及面臨其他國家的沖擊。改革開放以來，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速發(fā)展離不開人口因素的作用，有利的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)為我國提供了充足的勞動力資源，利用實(shí)證方法，研究30年來我國人口紅利對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)，計算出貢獻(xiàn)率，但同時人口紅利在發(fā)揮作用的同時，也帶來一些負(fù)面影響：過分依賴廉價勞動力，工資趨同日漸明顯；未充分發(fā)揮人力資本的優(yōu)勢，忽視技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和效率提高；能源利用效率低下，環(huán)境污染問題突出。這些都影響著人口紅利發(fā)揮作用，總結(jié)出制約人口紅利發(fā)揮作用的因素，包括巨大就業(yè)壓力的影響、二元戶籍管理制度的障礙、勞動力素質(zhì)偏低和社會保障制度不健全四個方面。同時，放眼國外，借鑒國外利用人口紅利的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，以日本國家為代表，介紹日本利用人口紅利的概況，積極汲取這個國家收獲人口紅利的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)，重視人力資源開發(fā)與積累，，冷靜對待中國人口老齡化過快問題，注重全要素生產(chǎn)率的提高，建立和諧的勞資關(guān)系，為我國日后持續(xù)開發(fā)人口紅利提供借鑒和思考。為了更好的抓住短暫而難得機(jī)遇，延長我國的人口紅利期，從四個方面提出了充分利用人口紅利促進(jìn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的對策建議：實(shí)施積極的就業(yè)政策，充分利用當(dāng)前人口紅利；加快推進(jìn)剩余勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移，促進(jìn)勞動力自由有序流動；提高勞動力素質(zhì)，注重人力資源的開發(fā)；建立可持續(xù)的養(yǎng)老保障模式，充分挖掘第二次人口紅利。
[Abstract]:As a new economic theory related to population change, demographic dividend mainly studies the relationship between the change of population age structure and economic growth. In recent years, due to the rapid growth of China's economy and the acceleration of population aging process, this theory has attracted wide attention from scholars at home and abroad. This paper attempts to explore the origin of the theory of demographic dividend from Marx's theory of industrial reserve, Lewis's theory of dual economic structure and Tian Xueyuan's viewpoint of demographic dividend, and summarizes the views of experts and scholars. This paper summarizes the connotation and extension of the population dividend, from the view that the labor force resources are fully utilized, the labor force can move freely, and the quality of the labor force is high. The labor force itself has the intention to participate in the four aspects of labor to summarize the conditions for the realization of the demographic dividend, as well as the motivation to promote economic growth. Based on the above theoretical basis, on the basis of the sixth census, using the research methods of existing researchers, we can judge that the current population structure of our country is in the period of population profit, to be exact, it is in the period of population exuberance. And a step to determine that the population dividend period will end in 2030. At the same time, the characteristics of the demographic dividend in China are summarized as follows: the fertility level drops sharply in a short period of time, before becoming rich, the population benefit period is in line with the social transformation, the reform and opening up are synchronized, and the impact from other countries is faced. Since the reform and opening up to the outside world, the rapid development of our economy depends on the role of population factors. The favorable age structure of the population has provided sufficient labor resources for our country. Using empirical methods, we have studied the contribution of population dividends to economic growth in the past 30 years. Calculate the contribution rate, but at the same time, the demographic dividend plays a role, but also brings some negative effects: excessive reliance on cheap labor, the convergence of wages is becoming more and more obvious; Without giving full play to the advantages of human capital, neglecting technological innovation and efficiency improvement, energy utilization efficiency is low, environmental pollution is prominent. All these influence the function of population dividend, sum up the factors that restrict the function of population dividend, including the influence of great employment pressure, the obstacle of dual household registration management system, The labor force quality is on the low side and the social security system is not perfect four aspects. At the same time, looking abroad, drawing lessons from the experience of foreign countries in making use of the demographic dividend, taking Japan as the representative, this paper introduces the general situation of Japan's utilization of the demographic dividend, actively draws on the successful experience of this country in reaping the demographic dividend, and attaches importance to the development and accumulation of human resources. Treat the problem of population aging too fast calmly, pay attention to the improvement of total factor productivity, establish harmonious labor-capital relations, and provide reference and thinking for the sustainable development of population dividend in China in the future. In order to seize the short-term and rare opportunity and extend the population dividend period of our country, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions of making full use of the population dividend to promote sustainable development from four aspects: implementing the positive employment policy and making full use of the current population dividend; We should accelerate the transfer of surplus labor force, promote the free and orderly flow of labor force, improve the quality of labor force, pay attention to the development of human resources, establish a sustainable old-age security model, and fully exploit the second demographic dividend.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F124;C924.2
本文編號：2450967
[Abstract]:As a new economic theory related to population change, demographic dividend mainly studies the relationship between the change of population age structure and economic growth. In recent years, due to the rapid growth of China's economy and the acceleration of population aging process, this theory has attracted wide attention from scholars at home and abroad. This paper attempts to explore the origin of the theory of demographic dividend from Marx's theory of industrial reserve, Lewis's theory of dual economic structure and Tian Xueyuan's viewpoint of demographic dividend, and summarizes the views of experts and scholars. This paper summarizes the connotation and extension of the population dividend, from the view that the labor force resources are fully utilized, the labor force can move freely, and the quality of the labor force is high. The labor force itself has the intention to participate in the four aspects of labor to summarize the conditions for the realization of the demographic dividend, as well as the motivation to promote economic growth. Based on the above theoretical basis, on the basis of the sixth census, using the research methods of existing researchers, we can judge that the current population structure of our country is in the period of population profit, to be exact, it is in the period of population exuberance. And a step to determine that the population dividend period will end in 2030. At the same time, the characteristics of the demographic dividend in China are summarized as follows: the fertility level drops sharply in a short period of time, before becoming rich, the population benefit period is in line with the social transformation, the reform and opening up are synchronized, and the impact from other countries is faced. Since the reform and opening up to the outside world, the rapid development of our economy depends on the role of population factors. The favorable age structure of the population has provided sufficient labor resources for our country. Using empirical methods, we have studied the contribution of population dividends to economic growth in the past 30 years. Calculate the contribution rate, but at the same time, the demographic dividend plays a role, but also brings some negative effects: excessive reliance on cheap labor, the convergence of wages is becoming more and more obvious; Without giving full play to the advantages of human capital, neglecting technological innovation and efficiency improvement, energy utilization efficiency is low, environmental pollution is prominent. All these influence the function of population dividend, sum up the factors that restrict the function of population dividend, including the influence of great employment pressure, the obstacle of dual household registration management system, The labor force quality is on the low side and the social security system is not perfect four aspects. At the same time, looking abroad, drawing lessons from the experience of foreign countries in making use of the demographic dividend, taking Japan as the representative, this paper introduces the general situation of Japan's utilization of the demographic dividend, actively draws on the successful experience of this country in reaping the demographic dividend, and attaches importance to the development and accumulation of human resources. Treat the problem of population aging too fast calmly, pay attention to the improvement of total factor productivity, establish harmonious labor-capital relations, and provide reference and thinking for the sustainable development of population dividend in China in the future. In order to seize the short-term and rare opportunity and extend the population dividend period of our country, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions of making full use of the population dividend to promote sustainable development from four aspects: implementing the positive employment policy and making full use of the current population dividend; We should accelerate the transfer of surplus labor force, promote the free and orderly flow of labor force, improve the quality of labor force, pay attention to the development of human resources, establish a sustainable old-age security model, and fully exploit the second demographic dividend.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F124;C924.2
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