【摘要】：由于我國二十世紀(jì)七十年代制定并實(shí)施了計(jì)劃生育政策,減緩了青壯年人口數(shù)量的增長速度,成為限制部分人口增長的因素,從而導(dǎo)致了人口老齡化問題日漸顯現(xiàn)。本文就此問題進(jìn)行了探討與研究。本文將北京人口發(fā)展的特點(diǎn)和“單獨(dú)二孩”政策相結(jié)合,著重研究了此政策對于北京人口結(jié)構(gòu)的影響以及通過改變?nèi)丝诮Y(jié)構(gòu)而造成老齡化的變化。通過利用Leslie模型和灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測模型的分析,分別得到兩種預(yù)測模型,并預(yù)測出對應(yīng)的各個(gè)年齡段的人口數(shù)量,分析其改進(jìn)方法。對于模型一,先根據(jù)已查到的十年人口普查數(shù)據(jù),采用Leslie人口模型,考慮各年齡段在死亡率、性別比例的差別,將人口按五歲一個(gè)年齡段,分為二十組,著重分析了“單獨(dú)二孩”政策對各年齡段女性總和生育率的影響。在整理了各年齡段的總和生育率后,結(jié)合獨(dú)生子女比例及其生育意愿得出了“單獨(dú)二孩”政策下各年齡段育齡女性的新總和生育率,最后利用Matlab軟件進(jìn)行編程、Excel進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)處理,得到了2010年至2050年各年齡段的人口數(shù)量,并根據(jù)模型處理結(jié)果闡述了自己的見解。對于模型二,利用灰色GM(1,1)模型,根據(jù)北京十年人口普查數(shù)據(jù)來計(jì)算模型內(nèi)部參數(shù),可以得到關(guān)于北京總?cè)丝诘幕疑Ｐ皖A(yù)測公式。然后根據(jù)2000年至2009年的北京各個(gè)年齡段的人口數(shù)據(jù),重新得到對應(yīng)各個(gè)年齡段的灰色預(yù)測模型的內(nèi)部參數(shù)以及預(yù)測公式。然后結(jié)合2014年的“單獨(dú)二孩”政策預(yù)測未來十個(gè)階段(每5年為一個(gè)階段)的各個(gè)年齡段的人口數(shù)量。最后對兩種模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析和研究,得出“單獨(dú)二孩”政策對北京市戶籍人口老齡化的影響。
[Abstract]:Since China formulated and implemented the family planning policy in the 1970s, it slowed down the growth rate of the number of the young and middle-aged population, and became the factor of limiting some population growth, which led to the aging of the population. This article has carried on the discussion and the research to this question. In this paper, the characteristics of population development in Beijing are combined with the policy of "single two-child", and the influence of this policy on Beijing's population structure and the change of aging caused by changing the population structure are emphatically studied. Through the analysis of Leslie model and grey GM (1K1) forecasting model, two forecasting models are obtained, and the corresponding population size of each age group is predicted, and the improved method is analyzed. For model one, the population is divided into 20 groups according to five years of age and one age group, using the Leslie population model and taking into account the differences in mortality and sex ratio between different age groups, according to the data of the 10-year census that have been collected. The effect of single-child policy on the total fertility rate of women of all ages was analyzed. After sorting out the total fertility rate of each age group, combined with the proportion of one-child and their willingness to have children, the new total fertility rate of women of all ages under the policy of "single two-child" was obtained. Finally, the data were processed by using Matlab software. The population size of each age group from 2010 to 2050 was obtained, and their views were expounded according to the results of the model. For the second model, the grey GM (1 ~ 1) model is used to calculate the internal parameters of the model according to the data of the Beijing 10-year census, and the grey model prediction formula for the Beijing population can be obtained. Then, according to the population data of each age group in Beijing from 2000 to 2009, the internal parameters and prediction formula of grey forecasting model corresponding to each age group are obtained again. Then, combined with the 2014 "single two-child" policy, it predicts the number of people of all ages in the next ten stages (one every five years). Finally, the results of the two models are analyzed and studied, and the influence of the policy of "single two-child" on the aging of the household registration population in Beijing is obtained.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：C924.21

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)會議論文 前1條

1 傅夢之;;仿用“二胎”政策來解決“二房”產(chǎn)生的不公平性問題[A];湖南省經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)會年會暨科學(xué)發(fā)展觀與湖南經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展研討會論文集[C];2008年

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