本文選題：人口預測 + 數(shù)據(jù)包絡分析　； 參考：《中國科學技術大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：作為經(jīng)濟和社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要載體,人口是整個社會的基礎。對未來人口增長的科學預測會給宏觀經(jīng)濟和社會規(guī)劃提供重要的參考價值。對于中國來說,作為世界上人口最多的國家,對人口的研究歷來得到廣大學者的重視。之前的關于人口增長預測的研究一般是基于時間序列分析。然而,利用時間序列方法對人口進行預測需要一個假設前提,即影響人口變化的外在環(huán)境不會發(fā)生大的變化,而中國的新的人口政策,即“全面二孩政策”卻為我們提供了新的大環(huán)境。在此新政策下,利用傳統(tǒng)的時間序列分析方法明顯是不合適的。另外,中國的經(jīng)濟飛速發(fā)展,人們的受教育水平也日益提高,再加上30多年來的計劃生育政策的日益滲透,人們的生育觀念已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化,家庭在做出生育決策的時候更加地趨于理性,已有研究證明當前中國的家庭生育行為是由生育成本以及生育效用決定的。因此文章首次將數(shù)據(jù)包絡分析模型引入到人口預測領域,從生育效用的角度對人口增長情況進行預測。生育效用在這里可由人均可支配收入、人均衛(wèi)生費用以及人均住房面積得到,然后再通過對生育效用的約束得到為了保證一定的生活水平,人口最多增長程度,即人口增長的上限。另外文章繼續(xù)通過幾個常用的時間序列分析模型以及利用歷史數(shù)據(jù)對人口增長進行了預測,并將其結果與數(shù)據(jù)包絡分析得到的結果進行了對比分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)通過數(shù)據(jù)包絡分析得到的結果更加地符合當前人口增長的一般規(guī)律。最后基于得到的結果,發(fā)現(xiàn)二孩政策不會導致嬰兒潮,而是會促進生育率溫和的增長。在此基礎上,文章最后提出了幾點關于政策實施的建議,為政府更好地迎接新的人口狀況提供參考。
[Abstract]:As an important carrier of economic and social sustainable development, population is the foundation of the whole society. The scientific prediction of the population growth in the future will provide important reference value for the macro economy and social planning. For China, as the most populous country in the world, the study of population has always been paid attention to by many scholars. The study of population growth prediction is generally based on time series analysis. However, the use of time series method to predict population needs a hypothesis, that is, the external environment that affects population changes will not change greatly, and the new population policy of China, the "two child policy", provides a new environment for us. Under this new policy, it is obviously inappropriate to use the traditional time series analysis method. In addition, China's economy is developing rapidly and people's education level is increasing. In addition to the increasing penetration of the family planning policy for more than 30 years, people's concept of fertility has changed, and families are making more decisions on birth. The present study has proved that the family fertility behavior in China is determined by the cost of fertility and the utility of fertility. Therefore, the data envelopment analysis model is introduced to the population forecast field for the first time, and the population growth is predicted from the perspective of fertility utility. In order to ensure a certain living standard, the maximum population growth, that is, the upper limit of population growth, the health cost and the per capita housing area are obtained to ensure a certain level of living, and the article continues to predict the population growth by several common time series analysis models and the use of historical data. The results were compared with the results obtained from the data envelopment analysis. It was found that the results obtained by the data envelopment analysis were more consistent with the general rule of population growth. Finally, based on the results, it was found that the two child policy did not lead to the baby boom, but would promote the moderate growth of fertility. Several suggestions on policy implementation have been put forward to provide references for the government to better meet the new population situation.
【學位授予單位】：中國科學技術大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.2

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