本文選題：人口遷移 + 人口經濟壓力��； 參考：《中央民族大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口遷移的內在原因和動力機制一直以來都是人口學、經濟學等社會科學領域研究的重點,自20世紀90年代以來,在經濟和社會轉型的時代背景下,我國市場化取向的改革使要素流動日趨頻繁,同時也推動了中國大規(guī)模的人口遷移和流動。21世紀以來,人口遷移的顯著性和活躍性日益明顯,并已成為重要的社會經濟現象和中國城市化進程的重要組成部分。快速城市化進程及人口大規(guī)模在農村與城市、城市與城市之間的遷移和流動,對經濟發(fā)展和社會資源整合等多方面正在并將繼續(xù)產生深遠影響。因此,探究我國人口遷移的成因,找到其內在動力機制,并在此基礎上制定相關政策,對人口流動進行合理引導,實現勞動力資源優(yōu)化配置就顯得尤為重要。 本文以人口經濟壓力理論為基礎,以北京市2000-2010年人口遷移規(guī)模為研究目標,在借鑒已有研究成果的基礎上,提出適合目標區(qū)域的人口經濟壓力評價指標體系,并通過對人口經濟壓力各項指數的計算,運用回歸分析方法,找到北京市人口遷移內在動力機制。 首先,在人口經濟壓力評價指標體系方面,本文在綜述目前國內外人口遷移動因理論研究基礎之上,結合已有人口經濟壓力評價體系研究成果,把全部的指標體系分為人口數量壓力指標體系、生活成本壓力指標體系、就業(yè)收入壓力指標體系、資源環(huán)境壓力指標體系、公共服務壓力指標體系等五大評價內容,以此建立最終的北京市人口經濟壓力評價指標體系。 其次,根據搜集到的指標數據,對數據進行標準化處理后,在SPSS統計軟件中運行主成分分析程序模塊,分別直接得到五大指標體系的壓力評估值,再運用等權加總的計算方法得到所需要的北京人口經濟壓力綜合指數。 最后,運用SPSS回歸分析模塊,將各項壓力指數與北京市人口遷移規(guī)模進行多元線性回歸分析,并擬合出人口遷移規(guī)�；貧w方程,完成對各項人口經濟壓力指數與人口遷移規(guī)模的定量分析,得出了生活成本壓力、就業(yè)收入壓力、資源環(huán)境壓力、公共服務壓力是人口遷移動力的結論。其中,就業(yè)收入是人口遷移最重要動力,對人口遷移規(guī)模影響最大。 根據所得的研究結論,本文對北京市人口規(guī)模的調控和城市的人口的管理提出了一定程度上的參考意見,以期在實際中為決策者提供合理的政策支持。
[Abstract]:The internal causes and motive mechanism of population migration have always been the focus of research in the fields of demography, economics and other social sciences. Since the 1990s, under the background of economic and social transformation, The reform of market-oriented orientation of our country makes the flow of elements become more and more frequent, at the same time, it also promotes the large-scale population migration and mobility in China. Since the 21st century, the significance and activity of population migration has become more and more obvious. And has become an important social and economic phenomenon and China's urbanization process an important component. The rapid urbanization process and the large-scale migration and movement of population in rural and urban areas, between cities and cities, are having and will continue to have a far-reaching impact on economic development and social resource integration. Therefore, it is very important to explore the causes of population migration in China, find out its internal motive mechanism, and make relevant policies to guide the population flow reasonably and realize the optimal allocation of labor resources. Based on the theory of population economic pressure and taking the population migration scale of Beijing from 2000 to 2010 as the research goal, this paper puts forward a population economic pressure evaluation index system suitable for the target region on the basis of the existing research results. Through the calculation of various indices of population economic pressure and the method of regression analysis, the internal motive mechanism of population migration in Beijing is found. First of all, in the population economic pressure evaluation index system, this paper summarizes the current domestic and foreign population migration motivation theory research, combined with the existing population economic pressure evaluation system research results. The whole index system is divided into five evaluation contents: population quantity pressure index system, cost of living pressure index system, employment income pressure index system, resources and environment pressure index system, public service pressure index system, etc. In this way, the final evaluation index system of population economic pressure in Beijing is established. Secondly, according to the collected index data, after the data is standardized, the principal component analysis program module is run in the SPSS statistical software, and the pressure evaluation values of the five index systems are obtained directly. The economic pressure index of Beijing population is obtained by using the equal weight plus total calculation method. Finally, by using the SPSS regression analysis module, the multivariate linear regression analysis between the pressure index and the population migration scale in Beijing is carried out, and the regression equation of the population migration scale is fitted. The quantitative analysis of population economic pressure index and population migration scale is completed, and the conclusion is drawn that cost of living pressure, employment income pressure, resource and environment pressure, public service pressure are the driving force of population migration. Among them, employment income is the most important driving force of population migration, which has the greatest impact on the scale of population migration. Based on the conclusions of the study, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the control of population scale and the management of urban population in Beijing, in order to provide reasonable policy support for decision makers in practice.
【學位授予單位】：中央民族大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：C924.2;F224

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本文編號：1943074