發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-04 20:06

  本文選題：住宅需求 + 人口因素�。� 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1998年住宅分配貨幣化以來(lái),住房問(wèn)題越來(lái)越成為社會(huì)各界關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。而住宅服務(wù)于人的基本屬性則決定了人口因素對(duì)住宅需求的影響最直接,人口因素的變化對(duì)于住宅需求有著深遠(yuǎn)的影響。利用有限的土地資源,尤其是在保證18億畝耕地紅線不動(dòng)搖的前提下,解決13億人口的住房問(wèn)題,是關(guān)乎國(guó)計(jì)民生的戰(zhàn)略問(wèn)題。因此,本文通過(guò)實(shí)證研究考察人口因素對(duì)住宅需求的影響。 本文首先回顧了人口因素與住宅需求研究的相關(guān)進(jìn)展,比較國(guó)內(nèi)外的研究特點(diǎn)并總結(jié)基本的研究思路。其次闡述了住宅需求的相關(guān)理論和住宅市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)狀及存在的問(wèn)題,同時(shí)對(duì)影響住宅需求的相關(guān)因素進(jìn)行了分析,尤其是在總結(jié)以往研究的基礎(chǔ)上將人口因素進(jìn)一步細(xì)化為包含人口家庭結(jié)構(gòu)、人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與人口城鄉(xiāng)結(jié)構(gòu)在內(nèi)的人口結(jié)構(gòu)因素和人口自然增長(zhǎng)與人口規(guī)模所反映的人口總量因素,重點(diǎn)分析以上人口特征的變化及其對(duì)住宅需求的影響。在實(shí)證方面,本文以1999-2008年我國(guó)各省面板數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,構(gòu)建住宅需求影響因素分析的線性模型,通過(guò)逐步回歸分析法,對(duì)影響全國(guó)住宅需求的人口因素進(jìn)行了量化分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):在控制一般經(jīng)濟(jì)因素和政策因素的條件下,家庭戶規(guī)模、非農(nóng)人口所占比重和15-64歲人口數(shù)三個(gè)人口指標(biāo)與住宅商品需求顯著相關(guān)。由此,可以得到以下結(jié)論:住宅需求量會(huì)隨著家庭的小型化和核心化而增加;城市化進(jìn)程的持續(xù)也會(huì)推動(dòng)城鎮(zhèn)住宅需求量的上升;人口增長(zhǎng)通過(guò)年齡余波效應(yīng)和人口紅利的作用影響住宅需求;未來(lái)一段時(shí)間內(nèi),人口因素仍將是住宅需求的推動(dòng)力。文章最后針對(duì)研究結(jié)果和我國(guó)國(guó)情提出了相關(guān)的政策建議,以期促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康、協(xié)調(diào)和可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Since the monetization of housing distribution in 1998, the housing problem has become a hot issue of social concern. The basic property of housing service to people determines the most direct impact of population factors on housing demand, and the change of population factors has a profound impact on housing demand. To solve the housing problem of 1.3 billion people is a strategic problem related to the national economy and people's livelihood under the premise of making use of limited land resources, especially on the premise that the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land will not waver. Therefore, this paper examines the impact of population factors on housing demand through empirical research. This paper first reviews the research progress of population factors and housing demand, compares the characteristics of the research at home and abroad and summarizes the basic research ideas. Secondly, it expounds the relevant theory of housing demand, the current situation and existing problems of housing market, and analyzes the related factors that affect housing demand. In particular, on the basis of summing up previous studies, the population factor is further refined to include the structure of the population family, The factors of population structure, such as population age structure and urban and rural population structure, and the total population factors reflected by natural population growth and population size are analyzed in this paper. The change of population characteristics and its influence on housing demand are analyzed. In the empirical aspect, taking the panel data from 1999 to 2008 as the sample, this paper constructs a linear model for the analysis of the influencing factors of housing demand, and through stepwise regression analysis, makes a quantitative analysis of the population factors that affect the housing demand in China. It is found that under the condition of controlling general economic factors and policy factors, the household size, the proportion of non-farm population and the number of population aged 15-64 are significantly related to the demand for housing commodities. Therefore, the following conclusions can be drawn: the demand for housing will increase with the miniaturization and core of the family, and the continuous urbanization will also promote the increase of the demand for housing in cities and towns; Population growth affects housing demand through the effect of age afterwave and demographic dividend. Population factors will still be the driving force of housing demand for some time to come. In the end, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the research results and the situation of our country, in order to promote the healthy, coordinated and sustainable development of the real estate industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號(hào)】：F293.3;C924.2

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本文編號(hào)：1844447