本文關(guān)鍵詞：“胡煥庸線”的穩(wěn)定性及其兩側(cè)人口集疏模式差異，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

“胡煥庸線”的穩(wěn)定性及其兩側(cè)人口集疏模式差異

Study on the stability of Hu Line and different spatial patterns of population growth on its both sides

[1] [2] [3]

QI Wei, LIU Shenghe, ZHAO Meifeng（ 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Science

[1]中國科學院地理科學與資源研究所,北京100101; [2]中國科學院大學,北京100049

文章摘要：“胡煥庸線”是反映中國人地關(guān)系的重要地理發(fā)現(xiàn)之一。在當今中國經(jīng)濟社會背景下，“胡煥庸線”所表達地理意義及其對城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的指導作用受到廣泛關(guān)注。在GIS的支持下，構(gòu)建了改革開放以來4次人口普查的縣級空間數(shù)據(jù)庫，提出人口時空擴張的識別方法，對“胡煥庸線”兩側(cè)的人口數(shù)量、集疏格局進行統(tǒng)計、分析，主要得出以下結(jié)論：①“胡煥庸線”兩側(cè)人口數(shù)量94：6的大數(shù)一直相對穩(wěn)定，但東南半壁人口持續(xù)微減、西北半壁人口持續(xù)微增。得益于較高的自然增長率，，西北半壁具有較高的人口增長速度。②“胡煥庸線”兩側(cè)呈現(xiàn)出迥然不同的人口集疏模式。東南半壁人口集中化程度提升較快，負增長區(qū)在“秦嶺一淮河”以南、東北等地區(qū)大面積擴張、人口正增長優(yōu)勢逐步極化到長三角、珠三角、京津等少數(shù)地區(qū)，呈現(xiàn)“馬太效應”式的集疏模式。主要是由于東南半壁內(nèi)部區(qū)域經(jīng)濟差異及快速城鎮(zhèn)化帶來的劇烈人口流動。③西北半壁則呈現(xiàn)“相對均勢”的人口集疏模式，多數(shù)地區(qū)的人口普遍表現(xiàn)為正增長，但是空間分布廣袤、增長不集中，人口集中化程度提升緩慢。主要是由于少數(shù)民族“多分散、少聚居”造成了自然增長優(yōu)勢的不集中。然而均勢是相對而不是絕對的，同樣存在一定的負增長區(qū)，主要分布在“胡煥庸線”和“新歐亞大陸橋”兩條帶上。④未來時期，“胡煥庸線”兩側(cè)的人口分布及集疏格局將進一步演化，東南半壁應關(guān)注內(nèi)陸腹地及中小城鎮(zhèn)對人口的吸納作用，西北半壁應關(guān)注將分散的人口增長優(yōu)勢向少數(shù)城鎮(zhèn)進行集聚，以期為人口地理學研究以及城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展提供參考。

Abstr：The Hu Line for population distribution in China has been regarded as one of the greatest geographical discoveries in China because it reveals the significant spatial characteristics of China＇s human-land relationship. Thus, the stability and significance for spatial development of Hu Line have become a major concern after the dramatic economic and social changes since China＇s reform and opening-up in 1978. With the support of GIS, this paper conducts a statistical analysis and systematic investigation on the stability and spatial patterns of population growth on both sides of Hu Line by constructing the spatial database of China＇s census data from 1982 to 2010 and initiating a new method for identifying the spatial patterns of population growth. The findings are as follows： （1） The Hu Line has been rather stable, while a new tendency of population change has emerged. On the whole, the ratio of population on both sides of Hu Line has roughly been kept at 94：6 （the southeastern side： the northwestem side） in the last 30 years. However, the proportion of population on the southeastern side of Hu Line has been slightly decreasing, while that on the northwestem side of Hu Line has been slightly increasing, which is benefited from its higher rate of natural population growth. （2） The spatial pattems of population growth on both sides of Hu Line were quite different. The agglomeration degree of population distribution on the southeastern side of Hu Line increased greater. The areas with negative population growth rate have rapidly expanded, mainly located south of the Qinling Mountains- Huaihe River line and the northeastern China, while the areas with the fast population growth rate concentrated in the

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:population Hu Line the southeastem side the northwestem side stability spatial patterns of population growth China

課題項目：國家自然科學基金項目（41271174）;國家自然科學重點基金項目（41230632）

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：“胡煥庸線”的穩(wěn)定性及其兩側(cè)人口集疏模式差異，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。