本文關(guān)鍵詞： 逆推歸納法 蜈蚣博弈 悖論 信念　出處：《深圳大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(人文社會科學(xué)版)》2016年02期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：逆推歸納法是研究完美信息動態(tài)博弈的常用方法,通過完全歸納得到必然結(jié)論,但用于分析蜈蚣博弈時(shí)理論預(yù)測與人們的實(shí)際博弈行為發(fā)生偏離,導(dǎo)致悖論。蜈蚣博弈的結(jié)構(gòu)精致而復(fù)雜,局中人對博弈收益情況的權(quán)衡以及局中人試圖在非合作的博弈機(jī)制中進(jìn)行合作的主觀傾向,影響了局中人決策時(shí)的信念變化�，F(xiàn)實(shí)中的主體并不具有絕對理性,伴隨信念變化的主觀感受是主體相信自己的決策合理的決定性因素。一種新的解悖思路是考察局中人信念變化并將主觀感受計(jì)入收益,進(jìn)而分析和預(yù)測博弈的結(jié)果。
[Abstract]:Inverse induction is a common method to study the dynamic game of perfect information. The conclusion is obtained through complete induction, but it is used to analyze the theoretical prediction of centipede game and the deviation between the theoretical prediction and the actual game behavior of people. Leading to paradox. The structure of centipede game is delicate and complex, the players' tradeoff of the game income and the subjective tendency of the players trying to cooperate in the non-cooperative game mechanism, It affects the change of belief in the decision-making of the people in the bureau. The subject in reality does not have absolute rationality. The subjective feeling accompanied by the change of belief is the decisive factor for the subject to believe that his decision is reasonable. A new way of solving the paradox is to investigate the change of belief in the bureau and count the subjective feeling into the income, and then analyze and predict the result of the game.
【作者單位】： 北京理工大學(xué);中國人民大學(xué);
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“大數(shù)據(jù)視域下科學(xué)方法創(chuàng)新研究”(15BZX040)
【分類號】：B812.3

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1 張峰;蜈蚣博弈悖論引發(fā)的思考[J];湖南科技大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會科學(xué)版);2005年01期

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