【摘要】：平均預(yù)期壽命是反映一國家、地區(qū)人類健康狀況的重要指標(biāo),也是綜合反映國家、地區(qū)社會(huì)生活狀況的“晴雨表”。它通過編制生命表來計(jì)算,這種方法是現(xiàn)代人口統(tǒng)計(jì)的一種重要方法,目前其理論和技術(shù)手段都比較完善。在合理的假設(shè)條件下,這種分析方法的基本原理可以借用到考古學(xué)中。通過對遺址人骨鑒定報(bào)告的數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),做生命表并計(jì)算古人平均預(yù)期壽命可以讓我們從一個(gè)側(cè)面了解古人的社會(huì)生活狀況。 本文利用生命表法對大汶口文化典型墓地進(jìn)行了嘗試性的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析并提出影響古人平均預(yù)期壽命的各因素及它們的相互關(guān)系,共分為四章7個(gè)部分。 第一部分,緒論,包括本文的選題和研究目的,平均預(yù)期壽命的概念,生命表的編制原理和方法,以及國內(nèi)研究史前古人平均預(yù)期壽命的現(xiàn)狀和本文的研究方法與思路。 第二部分,第一章包括3節(jié)內(nèi)容。第一節(jié)統(tǒng)計(jì)了大汶口文化所有己發(fā)表有人骨鑒定報(bào)告并滿足符合本文統(tǒng)計(jì)規(guī)范的的遺址。 第二節(jié)對符合本文統(tǒng)計(jì)要求的9遺址進(jìn)行生命表編制和平均預(yù)期壽命的計(jì)算,以王因遺址為例,詳細(xì)描述了生命表的編制過程。 第三節(jié)做各墓地死亡年齡直方圖和P-P圖對平均預(yù)期壽命的結(jié)果進(jìn)行初步的比較和死亡年齡分布統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)。提出平均預(yù)期壽命較高的7遺址死亡年齡分布服從正態(tài)分布并給出其數(shù)學(xué)意義；尉遲寺和五村遺址平均預(yù)期壽命較低的原因與遺址出土人骨低年齡段占總?cè)斯菙?shù)很大比重有關(guān),另也可能與遺址發(fā)掘狀況及其他影響平均預(yù)期壽命因素有關(guān),比如戰(zhàn)爭、饑荒、遷徙等。并指出,鑒于定量統(tǒng)計(jì)的結(jié)果受材料可靠程度的影響很大,人骨鑒定工作今后需要提高鑒定精度。 第三部分,第二章分為三節(jié)。本節(jié)是利用SPSS軟件從遺址的地理位置和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素進(jìn)行定量統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。第一節(jié)對9遺址根據(jù)平均預(yù)期壽命、經(jīng)度、緯度、遺址面積、每具人骨平均占有隨葬品數(shù)量這5個(gè)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行聚類分析,把9遺址分為3類,剔除掉兩個(gè)預(yù)期壽命偏低的遺址后進(jìn)行再分類,把7遺址分為2類并對結(jié)果進(jìn)行討論。初步指出經(jīng)度、緯度因素對各遺址古人平均預(yù)期壽命影響要大于社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素。 第二節(jié)通過用相關(guān)及多元回歸分析法嘗試揭示9遺址的平均預(yù)期壽命、經(jīng)度、緯度、遺址面積、每具人骨平均占有隨葬品數(shù)量這5個(gè)指標(biāo)的相互關(guān)系,結(jié)果顯示平均預(yù)期壽命與其他4個(gè)指標(biāo)每兩個(gè)之間相關(guān)性不大。多元回歸分析的結(jié)果顯示經(jīng)度對各遺址平均預(yù)期壽命的影響最大,其次是緯度,而遺址面積、每具人骨平均占有隨葬品數(shù)量這2個(gè)用以指示遺址社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的因素對平均預(yù)期壽命的影響次于經(jīng)度、緯度因素。并結(jié)合各遺址所對應(yīng)的大汶口文化分期,指出大汶口文化早期到中期階段存在古人平均預(yù)期壽命降低的現(xiàn)象。 第三節(jié)為本章小結(jié),分別從空間、時(shí)間角度指出大汶口文化時(shí)期古人平均預(yù)期壽命存在地區(qū)差異和時(shí)期變動(dòng)。 第四部分：對生命表法在考古學(xué)的應(yīng)用需注意的問題進(jìn)行探討。第一節(jié)通過編制分期別生命表計(jì)算出的平均預(yù)期壽命和遺址總?cè)丝谏碛?jì)算的結(jié)果相比較并討論誤差的影響,指出今后應(yīng)注意歷時(shí)性問題,盡可能編制分期別生命表以保證精確度和科學(xué)性。 第二節(jié)從分性別編制生命表的結(jié)果初步討論了男性、女性平均預(yù)期壽命在大汶口文化階段的差異。并根據(jù)王因、劉林墓地男女死亡年齡累積曲線指出生活在王因、劉林遺址的古人女性平均初育年齡可能為17歲,并探討了造成女性平均預(yù)期壽命低于男性的原因。指出除了可能與婦女在圍產(chǎn)期大量死亡有關(guān),還可能與女性社會(huì)地位低于男性有關(guān)。 第三節(jié)通過環(huán)境考古近年來的研究認(rèn)識(shí),對大汶口文化從早期階段到中期階段古人平均預(yù)期壽命存在降低的現(xiàn)象進(jìn)行分析,認(rèn)為與古氣候的變化特別是距今6000年左右開始的全球氣候變化有一定相關(guān)性。并嘗試從醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生方面分析古人平均預(yù)期壽命的變化。 第五部分,第四章分為三節(jié),對生命表法在考古學(xué)的其他應(yīng)用做嘗試性探討。第一節(jié)病理分析,通過介紹去死因生命表及其編制方法,認(rèn)為今后可利用此法統(tǒng)計(jì)古人的病因及研究史前遺址是否存在地方性疾病等。 第二節(jié)人口數(shù)量統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,回顧了人口增長的概念和人口再生產(chǎn)的模式,介紹了人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)人口預(yù)測的方法,指出可以在一定條件下用人口預(yù)測的公式回溯逆推歷史時(shí)期乃至史前人口數(shù)量；并以西漢人口數(shù)量變化過程分析了本文這種方法與思路的可行性,通過介紹模型生命表提供了一種研究史前人口數(shù)量的具體方法,并以王因?yàn)槔榻B其算法,并通過統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)圖檢驗(yàn)假設(shè)前提。 第三節(jié)為本章小結(jié),指出生命表在考古學(xué)的應(yīng)用前景和應(yīng)用局限。 第六部分,結(jié)語。結(jié)語對大汶口文化時(shí)代古人平均預(yù)期壽命影響因素進(jìn)行總結(jié)并指出今后研究需要從其他角度思考問題。對于生命表在考古學(xué)的應(yīng)用存在的一些細(xì)節(jié)問題進(jìn)行討論,并給出今后的研究思路；提出人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)方法和基本概念在考古學(xué)應(yīng)用中要注意考慮應(yīng)用前提和條件。最后對本文的計(jì)算誤差及生命表在考古學(xué)的應(yīng)用前景和局限進(jìn)行總結(jié)。 第七部分,附表里登錄了依據(jù)本文統(tǒng)計(jì)規(guī)范所選取的原始數(shù)據(jù)。 本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)在于： 1.結(jié)合多學(xué)科背景知識(shí),對影響平均預(yù)期壽命的主要因素進(jìn)行定量的定性研究。通過相關(guān)分析,討論了各因素對平均預(yù)期壽命變化的影響；并嘗試進(jìn)行回歸分析,得出影響平均預(yù)期壽命各因素的重要程度,并結(jié)合遺址進(jìn)行規(guī)律性的探討。 2.對生命表法在考古學(xué)運(yùn)用中存在的方法移植問題進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。通過做遺址分期生命表討論了計(jì)算結(jié)果的誤差并從分期生命表中再次驗(yàn)證了大汶口文化早期階段到中期階段存在著平均預(yù)期壽命降低的現(xiàn)象。 3.分性別編制生命表并對大汶口文化早期階段存在的男性平均預(yù)期壽命高于女性的現(xiàn)象進(jìn)行初步探討。 4.本文從一個(gè)大的文化時(shí)期對多處遺址進(jìn)行生命表編制并計(jì)算平均預(yù)期壽命,從結(jié)果中也顯示出大汶口文化時(shí)期似乎存在著多種對應(yīng)關(guān)系。如氣候變化與平均預(yù)期壽命的變化,社會(huì)性質(zhì)的變化與平均預(yù)期壽命的變化似乎有一定的聯(lián)系。 5.對生命表在考古學(xué)的具體應(yīng)用提出自己的見解,認(rèn)為應(yīng)結(jié)合考古實(shí)際,今后有針對性地選取墓葬數(shù)量較多的遺址重點(diǎn)突破,建立史前社會(huì)區(qū)域模型生命表作為標(biāo)尺,為其他遺址提供參照標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。
[Abstract]:The average life expectancy is an important indicator to reflect the health of a country and a region. It is also a "barometer" which reflects the state of the country and the social life in a comprehensive way. It is calculated by the compilation of the life table. This method is an important method of modern demographic statistics. At present, its theoretical and technical means are perfect. Under the conditions, the basic principles of this analytical method can be used in archaeology. Through the statistics of the data of the human bone identification report of the site, the life table and the calculation of the average life expectancy of the ancients can let us understand the social life of the ancients from one side.
This paper uses the life table method to make a tentative statistical analysis of the typical tombs of the great Wen mouth culture and puts forward the factors affecting the average life expectancy of the ancient people and their relations, which are divided into four chapters and 7 parts.
In the first part, the introduction, including the topic and purpose of this paper, the concept of average life expectancy, the principle and method of the life table, and the status of the study of the average life expectancy of the prehistoric people in China, and the research methods and ideas of this paper.
The second part, the first chapter includes 3 sections. The first section of the first section of the statistics of the great Wen mouth culture has published a human bone identification report and meet the statistical norms of the site.
In the second section, the life table and the average life expectancy of the 9 sites in accordance with the statistical requirements of this article are calculated. Taking the Wang Yin site as an example, the compilation process of the life table is described in detail.
The third section makes a preliminary comparison of the results of the average life expectancy and the statistical test of the age distribution of the average life expectancy on the death age histogram and P-P map of the cemetery. It is proposed that the average life expectancy of 7 sites with higher average life expectancy obeys the normal distribution and gives its mathematical significance; the reasons for the lower average life expectancy of the Wei Chi temple and the five village sites are the reasons for the lower life expectancy and the lower average life expectancy. The low age segment of the unearthed human bone is related to the large proportion of the total number of bone, and it may also be related to the site excavation and other factors affecting the average life expectancy, such as war, famine, migration, etc., and point out that the results of quantitative statistics are greatly influenced by the reliability of the material, and the accuracy of identification in human bone identification needs to be improved in the future.
The third part, the second chapter is divided into three sections. This section uses SPSS software to carry out quantitative statistical analysis from the geographical location and social and economic factors of the site. The first section of the 9 sites, according to the average life expectancy, longitude, latitude, site area, and the average number of burial items of each bone, the 5 indexes are divided into 3 categories and removed from the 9 sites. Two sites with low life expectancy were reclassified, and the 7 sites were divided into 2 categories and the results were discussed. It was preliminarily pointed out that the longitude factors had greater impact on the average life expectancy of the ancient people of each site than the social and economic factors.
The second section tries to reveal the relationship between the average life expectancy, longitude, latitude, site area, and the average number of the 5 sites of the 9 sites, and the results show that the average life expectancy has little correlation with the other 4 indexes, and the results of multiple regression analysis show that the results of multiple regression analysis show that there is no correlation between the average life expectancy and the other 4 indexes. The longitude has the greatest impact on the average life expectancy of each site, followed by latitude, and the site area, and the average number of burial items for each human bone, 2 to indicate the impact of the social and economic conditions on the site to the average life expectancy after the longitude, and the latitude factors. In the early and middle stages of culture, the average life expectancy of the ancients decreased.
The third section is a summary of this chapter. From the space and time point of view, it points out that there are regional differences and time changes in the average life expectancy of the ancients in the period of the great culture.
The fourth part: the first section compares the average life expectancy calculated by the compilation of the staging life table with the results of the calculation of the life table of the total population of the site, and discusses the influence of the error, and points out that the problem of the calendar should be paid attention to in the future, and the staging life table should be prepared as far as possible. To ensure accuracy and scientificity.
The second section gives a preliminary discussion on the difference between male and female average life expectancy at the cultural stage in the great Wen mouth from the results of the gender based life table. According to Wang Yin, the cumulative curve of the death age of men and women in Liu Lin's cemetery points out that the average young women of the ancient women of the Liu Lin site may be 17 years old. The cause of life expectancy is lower than that of men. It is pointed out that besides being associated with a large number of deaths in perinatal period, women may also be associated with lower social status of women than men.
The third section, through the research and understanding of Environmental Archaeology in recent years, analyzes the decline of the average life expectancy of the ancient people from the early stage to the middle stage of the culture from the early stage to the middle stage. It is believed that there is a certain correlation with the change of the paleoclimate, especially the global climate change that began about 6000 years ago. Changes in average life expectancy.
The fifth part, the fourth chapter is divided into three sections, the life table method in the archaeology of other applications to do an attempt to explore. The first section of the pathological analysis, through the introduction of the death list of the cause of death and the compilation of methods, it is believed that this method can be used in the future to statistics the etiological factors of the ancients and to study whether the prehistoric sites are in the local diseases.
The second section of population statistics analysis, reviewed the concept of population growth and the mode of population reproduction, introduced the method of demographic population prediction, and pointed out that the population quantity of historical and prehistoric population could be traced back by the formula of population prediction under certain conditions, and this paper analyzed this article in the process of the change of the population in the Western Han Dynasty. The feasibility of the method and thought is presented. By introducing the model life table, a specific method is provided to study the number of prehistoric population, and the algorithm is introduced by King as an example, and the hypothesis is tested by a statistical test chart.
The third section is the summary of this chapter, pointing out the application prospect and application limitation of life table in archaeology.
The sixth part, concluding conclusion, summarizes the factors that influence the average life expectancy of the ancient people in the time of the great Wen mouth culture, and points out that the future research needs to think about the problems from other angles. It also discusses the details of the application of the life table in archaeology, and gives the research ideas in the future; and puts forward the demographics and basic methods. In the application of archaeology, we should pay attention to the application of the premise and conditions. Finally, the calculation error and the application prospects and limitations of the life table in archaeology are summarized.
The seventh part is listed in the attached table according to the original data selected according to the statistical specification.
The innovation of this article lies in:
1. in combination with multidisciplinary background knowledge, quantitative qualitative research on the main factors affecting average life expectancy is carried out. Through the correlation analysis, the influence of the factors on the change of average life expectancy is discussed, and the regression analysis is carried out to obtain the importance of the factors affecting the average life expectancy, and the regularity of the sites is discussed.
2. the life table method was used to test the problem of transplantation in the application of archaeology. The error of the calculation results was discussed by the site staging life table and the average life expectancy decreased from the early stage to the middle stage of the life table.
3. life tables were compiled according to gender, and the average life expectancy of men in the early stage of Da Wen culture was higher than that of females.
4. from a large cultural period, the life table of many sites was compiled and the average life expectancy was calculated. From the results, there seemed to be a variety of corresponding relationships in the great cultural period. For example, the change of climate change with the average life expectancy, the change of social nature and the change of average life expectancy seemed to be related.
5. the life table in the specific application of archaeology put forward his own views, that should be combined with the archaeological practice, in the future to select the grave number of more grave sites to focus on the breakthrough, the establishment of the prehistoric social regional model life table as a scale for other sites to provide reference standards.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：K878

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