【摘要】：2030年的大國(guó)關(guān)系將處于不確定、不穩(wěn)定、不安全的重組狀態(tài),并向多極化、扁平化的方向發(fā)展。美國(guó)仍然是超級(jí)強(qiáng)國(guó),中國(guó)的崛起不可阻擋。至于中國(guó)是不是超級(jí)大國(guó),可能會(huì)存在爭(zhēng)議,但至少"準(zhǔn)超級(jí)大國(guó)"地位是可以確定的。俄羅斯盡管有短板,但仍將是一支舉足輕重的地緣戰(zhàn)略力量。歐盟和日本的地位可能下降,但絕不意味從此甘心自動(dòng)退出,沒(méi)有東山再起的機(jī)會(huì)和努力。作為金磚國(guó)家,印度地位會(huì)上升,但能否成為一極,還是未定之天。巴西將可能成為美國(guó)在拉美的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。從大國(guó)關(guān)系來(lái)看,2030年,比起中美關(guān)系,中俄關(guān)系相對(duì)確定;比起中日關(guān)系,中歐關(guān)系相對(duì)確定;比起美俄關(guān)系,美歐關(guān)系比較確定。
[Abstract]:The United States is still a superpower, and China's rise is irresistible. As for whether China is a superpower, there may be controversy, but at least the status of a "quasi-superpower" can be determined. The position of the EU and Japan may decline, but it does not mean that they will voluntarily withdraw from the EU without the opportunity and effort to make a comeback. As a BRICS country, India's status will rise, but it is still uncertain whether it will become a pole. Brazil may become the dominant country in Latin America. From the perspective of big power relations, in 2030, Sino-Russian relations are relatively definite compared with Sino-US relations; Sino-European relations are relatively definite compared with Sino-Japanese relations; and Sino-European relations are relatively definite compared with Sino-Russian relations.
【作者單位】： 北京師范大學(xué)政府管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社科基金重大項(xiàng)目“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶框架下的中俄全面合作研究”,項(xiàng)目批準(zhǔn)號(hào)為16ZDA040 一般項(xiàng)目“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶與歐亞聯(lián)盟關(guān)系研究”的階段性成果,項(xiàng)目批準(zhǔn)號(hào)為14BGJ039
【分類號(hào)】：D81

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