本文選題：人口老齡化 + 城市化　； 參考：《中國(guó)人口·資源與環(huán)境》2016年06期

【摘要】：中國(guó)的城市化水平在過(guò)去的20余年里以年均超過(guò)一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的速度提升,然而在城市化主要依靠人口鄉(xiāng)城遷移推動(dòng)的模式下,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)老化對(duì)城市化發(fā)展的影響日漸顯現(xiàn)。文章通過(guò)年齡移算法描述了鄉(xiāng)城人口遷移流動(dòng)的年齡模式,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)農(nóng)村人口鄉(xiāng)城遷移概率隨年齡的分布呈現(xiàn)"中間大,兩頭小"的特征。然后,文章分析了此種年齡模式形成的原因,認(rèn)為制度是影響鄉(xiāng)城遷移年齡模式的決定性因素,制度變遷的緩慢性以及路徑依賴決定了短期內(nèi)我國(guó)人口鄉(xiāng)城遷移年齡模式的穩(wěn)定性。基于此,文章預(yù)測(cè)了人口老齡化對(duì)未來(lái)中國(guó)人口城市化發(fā)展的影響,得出的基本結(jié)論是,未來(lái)中國(guó)城市化發(fā)展的水平提高將進(jìn)入一個(gè)相對(duì)平緩的時(shí)期,年度城市化水平的提升將顯著低于過(guò)去一個(gè)時(shí)期,對(duì)未來(lái)10-20年中國(guó)城市化發(fā)展水平的預(yù)期未可過(guò)于樂觀。針對(duì)這一結(jié)論,文章建議在未來(lái)的城市化過(guò)程中應(yīng)完善社會(huì)融入機(jī)制和提升城市化質(zhì)量。
[Abstract]:In the past 20 years, the level of urbanization in China has increased at an average annual rate of more than one percentage point. However, under the model that urbanization mainly depends on the migration of the rural population, the aging of the age structure of the population has become more and more important to the development of urbanization. This paper describes the age pattern of rural population migration by age shift algorithm, and finds out that the migration probability of rural population in our country shows the characteristics of "large middle and small at both ends" with the distribution of age. Then, the paper analyzes the reasons for the formation of this age model, and thinks that the system is the decisive factor to affect the age pattern of rural migration. The slowness of institutional change and path dependence determine the stability of the population migration age model in the short term. Based on this, the paper predicts the impact of population aging on the future urbanization development of China, and draws the basic conclusion that the level of urbanization development in China will enter a relatively gentle period in the future. The annual increase in urbanization will be significantly lower than in the past, and expectations of China's urbanization over the next 10-20 years are not overly optimistic. In view of this conclusion, the paper suggests that the mechanism of social integration and the quality of urbanization should be improved in the process of urbanization in the future.
【作者單位】： 武漢大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：湖北省教育廳哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)研究重大項(xiàng)目“湖北‘黃金十年’經(jīng)濟(jì)安全評(píng)價(jià)及防控策略研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):14ZD001)
【分類號(hào)】：D669.6
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本文編號(hào)：2100828